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What triggered this investigation? I agree that it does look like a phase-change. But did you throw out any graphs that didn't have a phase-change appearance?
by asfarley 7y ago
What triggered this investigation? I agree that it does look like a phase-change. But did you throw out any graphs that didn't have a phase-change appearance?
I'm genuinely curious. Seems like there are different arguments below-the-surface in this thread.
- dTal 7y agoFor me, what triggered it was noticing several startling graphs that all seemed to show a) something sudden, b) at the same time. I started collecting such graphs. It appears the author of this website has done the same. Note that all the "commentary" is embedded in the images - there's no indication that the webmaster has any agenda beyond mine (although the various graph publishers might). I don't really understand your question about throwing out graphs that don't show a phase-change. There are infinite unrelated graphs. "But, your honor, consider all these photos of my client not murdering the deceased!"
- bobwaycott 7y ago> I don't really understand your question about throwing out graphs that don't show a phase-change. There are infinite unrelated graphs. Unrelated in what sense? Your example seems a bit of a straw man. What other graphs of economic activity and change do not show a significant and sudden shift at ~1971 (is what I think the parent is asking)?
- asfarley 7y agoYes, this is what I meant. To be clear, I'm not accusing anyone of intentionally being misleading. But consider this process: 1) Notice an inflection 2) Search through a near-infinite number of economic indicators 3) Select those other indicators bearing an inflection-point This is very non-Baysian.
- asfarley 7y agoWell it sounds strange the way you say it, but video evidence of someone not committing a crime is often a pretty good alibi, right?