7 ms·

facebook growth went something like this: college --> high school --> young adults --> everyone Trendy stuff generally follows the same cascade, more or les

facebook growth went something like this: college --> high school --> young adults --> everyone Trendy stuff generally follows the same cascade, more or less, where you don't see college students emulating the dress habits of the elderly. facebook's biggest potential for failure is in not capturing the next generation of young users. The young users pick up some other social network, everyone else follows suit, and facebook withers, slowly starting to resemble an '85 buick.

kragen 16y ago
Most of the teenagers I know have Facebook accounts. Facebook might lose the high school class of 2018, but they already have the class of 2014 sewn up.
- phuff 16y ago
  They have at least the class of 2016-2017 given the 12 and 13 year-olds I know that have accounts...
  - mscarborough 16y ago
    OK, at least for now. Nothing better for fickle teenagers will pop up in the next 6 years? Doubtful. EDIT: fickleness with social networks not restricted to teenagers, obviously.
    - robryan 16y ago
      Tumblr seems to be big with the younger age groups, it's more of a facebook compliment though.
    - knowsnothing613 16y ago
      The new it social network for tweens/YA is tumblr. Facebook will eventually lose market share to Tumblr. All these social networks are simply an extension of the email use case. It's nothing new, nor do I see Facebook taking down google. Social networks are like hot clubs. Eventually their popularity fades, as soon as another it scene opens, which is why I'd never invest in a social network site. So shall it pass with Facebook
      - gcr 16y ago
        What is special about tumblr? (honest question.) I've only thought of it as a blogging platform that focused on small, "multimedia" posts (pictures, video, a short quote, etc)
        Raphael 16y ago
        Multimedia appeals to people who don't read.
      - nhangen 16y ago
        If Tumblr was going to take on Facebook, we would have already seen it trend in that direction. I love Tumblr, but I can't see it being as ubiquitous as Facebook.
- Tichy 16y ago
  Do they like Facebook, or are they only on there because of peer pressure?
  - kragen 16y ago
    Nobody likes Facebook.
    - peteforde 16y ago
      I love Facebook! I derive a huge amount of value out of it. I put in the time to train it to show me what I want to see, and I don't become friends with everyone I meet. It's silly to say that nobody likes Facebook. You don't, and that's fine. But you're in a very small minority (and arguably for a reason).
  - malloreon 16y ago
    Facebook creates incredible peer pressure to join, if only to answer this question: "what if they're talking about me on facebook?" Facebook is directed peer pressure.
- hnal943 16y ago
  How many people have MySpace accounts they never use anymore? The point of the article is not that people won't ever sign up, but that they'll lose interest.
lotusleaf1987 16y ago
I got my Facebook account in 2005 when I was a college freshman. At first it was amazing, then they opened it up to high schoolers which was okay, but not really what I wanted from Facebook. Then they added things like the Friend Feed which bombarded you with "Your friend [name you know] just added [someone you don't know or care about}." Which was okay, but then they opened the gates and suddenly all your coworkers and anyone you've ever talked to for more than 3 minutes is now adding you. I think for me, the longer I've had my Facebook, the less useful it has gotten and the less time I've actually spent on it. It's like talking in a room with everyone you've ever met listening in. It's unnatural. I think Facebook's market will eventually fragment-- LinkedIn being the first chink in FB's armor, I imagine the next will be a college exclusive network like how Facebook got started.
- kin 16y ago
  I have the exact same feeling about Facebook. I was appalled when they originally let high school students into the gates. The exclusivity was what made it so cool to be a part of. However, I never felt that it has become less useful, it just took a second to adapt to the new environment that it periodically throws at you. Perhaps if you do the same (take advantage of group privacy settings) you can weed out the junk and use it as it used to be?
- d2viant 16y ago
  Do you really think LinkedIn is a chink in Facebook's armor? I question how many people regularly use LinkedIn as opposed to those who just update when their job title changes. All Facebook needs is for an intern of theirs to add a couple more features around the career section of people's profiles and LinkedIn is toast.
  - yannickt 16y ago
    "and LinkedIn is toast" I doubt that. I think people who take career networking seriously tend to keep their personal and professional lives separate.
    - 16y ago
fkeidkwdq 16y ago
facebook beginning in college can be explained because its creator was in college at that time, and is natural to expand in your habitat. Sometime young people copy old habits of old people, so I don't see any trend. The power for expansion is in the marketing, very creative people selling water vapour (in Spain people now smoke water vapour since the prohibition to smoke in public places).
loire280 16y ago
My 12 year old brother and all of his friends use Facebook already. Many of them use the mobile site on their iPod touches. (incidentally, the iPod touch is a great way for Apple to build a userbase among the young)
- cft 16y ago
  mobile site or the fb app?

kragen 16y ago

Most of the teenagers I know have Facebook accounts. Facebook might lose the high school class of 2018, but they already have the class of 2014 sewn up.

phuff 16y ago
They have at least the class of 2016-2017 given the 12 and 13 year-olds I know that have accounts...
- mscarborough 16y ago
  OK, at least for now. Nothing better for fickle teenagers will pop up in the next 6 years? Doubtful. EDIT: fickleness with social networks not restricted to teenagers, obviously.
  - robryan 16y ago
    Tumblr seems to be big with the younger age groups, it's more of a facebook compliment though.
  - knowsnothing613 16y ago
    The new it social network for tweens/YA is tumblr. Facebook will eventually lose market share to Tumblr. All these social networks are simply an extension of the email use case. It's nothing new, nor do I see Facebook taking down google. Social networks are like hot clubs. Eventually their popularity fades, as soon as another it scene opens, which is why I'd never invest in a social network site. So shall it pass with Facebook
    - gcr 16y ago
      What is special about tumblr? (honest question.) I've only thought of it as a blogging platform that focused on small, "multimedia" posts (pictures, video, a short quote, etc)
      - Raphael 16y ago
        Multimedia appeals to people who don't read.
    - nhangen 16y ago
      If Tumblr was going to take on Facebook, we would have already seen it trend in that direction. I love Tumblr, but I can't see it being as ubiquitous as Facebook.
Tichy 16y ago
Do they like Facebook, or are they only on there because of peer pressure?
- kragen 16y ago
  Nobody likes Facebook.
  - peteforde 16y ago
    I love Facebook! I derive a huge amount of value out of it. I put in the time to train it to show me what I want to see, and I don't become friends with everyone I meet. It's silly to say that nobody likes Facebook. You don't, and that's fine. But you're in a very small minority (and arguably for a reason).
- malloreon 16y ago
  Facebook creates incredible peer pressure to join, if only to answer this question: "what if they're talking about me on facebook?" Facebook is directed peer pressure.
hnal943 16y ago
How many people have MySpace accounts they never use anymore? The point of the article is not that people won't ever sign up, but that they'll lose interest.

lotusleaf1987 16y ago

I got my Facebook account in 2005 when I was a college freshman. At first it was amazing, then they opened it up to high schoolers which was okay, but not really what I wanted from Facebook. Then they added things like the Friend Feed which bombarded you with "Your friend [name you know] just added [someone you don't know or care about}." Which was okay, but then they opened the gates and suddenly all your coworkers and anyone you've ever talked to for more than 3 minutes is now adding you. I think for me, the longer I've had my Facebook, the less useful it has gotten and the less time I've actually spent on it. It's like talking in a room with everyone you've ever met listening in. It's unnatural. I think Facebook's market will eventually fragment-- LinkedIn being the first chink in FB's armor, I imagine the next will be a college exclusive network like how Facebook got started.

kin 16y ago
I have the exact same feeling about Facebook. I was appalled when they originally let high school students into the gates. The exclusivity was what made it so cool to be a part of. However, I never felt that it has become less useful, it just took a second to adapt to the new environment that it periodically throws at you. Perhaps if you do the same (take advantage of group privacy settings) you can weed out the junk and use it as it used to be?
d2viant 16y ago
Do you really think LinkedIn is a chink in Facebook's armor? I question how many people regularly use LinkedIn as opposed to those who just update when their job title changes. All Facebook needs is for an intern of theirs to add a couple more features around the career section of people's profiles and LinkedIn is toast.
- yannickt 16y ago
  "and LinkedIn is toast" I doubt that. I think people who take career networking seriously tend to keep their personal and professional lives separate.
  - 16y ago

fkeidkwdq 16y ago

facebook beginning in college can be explained because its creator was in college at that time, and is natural to expand in your habitat. Sometime young people copy old habits of old people, so I don't see any trend. The power for expansion is in the marketing, very creative people selling water vapour (in Spain people now smoke water vapour since the prohibition to smoke in public places).

loire280 16y ago

My 12 year old brother and all of his friends use Facebook already. Many of them use the mobile site on their iPod touches. (incidentally, the iPod touch is a great way for Apple to build a userbase among the young)

cft 16y ago
mobile site or the fb app?