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>So it does seem to be an opportunity you can exploit. There are effectively zero opportunities you can exploit by simply purchasing the stock of publicly trad

>So it does seem to be an opportunity you can exploit. There are effectively zero opportunities you can exploit by simply purchasing the stock of publicly traded companies. The probability that they bounce back after a recession is incorporated into the price, the professional investors and hedge funds you're trading against aren't idiots. >Your second paragraph seems to have shifted to a completely different asset class. No doubt there was fantastic prices on model aircraft kits, but you need to know the market, and it isn't apparent to me whether the model aircraft kit market will behave the same the next time. Plus it's more risky. If I buy a stock, I don't have to worry about it being fake, getting damaged, I can sell trivially at the touch of a button. The point isn't investing, it's to get the hobby gear you want at a good price. Any potential resale profit is very much a secondary concern.

benj111 7y ago
"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" Baron Rothschild People are human, they over react to bad news, they inflate bubbles, etc, etc. It isn't just hedge funds and professional investors you're up against, and even if you are, so? The average hedgefund bod will be thinking about the year end bonus, a stock that may bounce back in 18 months isnt of interest to them. And the higher ups don't want to end up bottom of the performance tables so they aren't going to keep it either. Then theres the fact that the efficient market hypothesis can only really deal with knowns. The depth of a recession is an open question, sure you can make an educated guess, but theres plenty of wiggle room to take a different view, or maybe I should say your differing view is a vote in setting the 'correct' price. And finally, I'm not entirely sure the efficient market hypothesis has even been proven, exhibit A) Long Blockchain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/crypto-craze-sees-long-island-iced-tea-rename-as-long-blockchain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/crypto-cr...

benj111 7y ago

"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" Baron Rothschild People are human, they over react to bad news, they inflate bubbles, etc, etc. It isn't just hedge funds and professional investors you're up against, and even if you are, so? The average hedgefund bod will be thinking about the year end bonus, a stock that may bounce back in 18 months isnt of interest to them. And the higher ups don't want to end up bottom of the performance tables so they aren't going to keep it either. Then theres the fact that the efficient market hypothesis can only really deal with knowns. The depth of a recession is an open question, sure you can make an educated guess, but theres plenty of wiggle room to take a different view, or maybe I should say your differing view is a vote in setting the 'correct' price. And finally, I'm not entirely sure the efficient market hypothesis has even been proven, exhibit A) Long Blockchain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/crypto-craze-sees-long-island-iced-tea-rename-as-long-blockchain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/crypto-cr...