3 ms·

Yes I am, in fact, a citizen of Russia. I'm also a US citizen. I know this because there's been both video and statistical evidence, as well as numerous reports

by m0zg 7y ago

Yes I am, in fact, a citizen of Russia. I'm also a US citizen. I know this because there's been both video and statistical evidence, as well as numerous reports of electoral district vote counters simply falsifying final vote tallies, people being bused around to vote in multiple districts, etc, etc. Statistical evidence of vote count manipulation is actually pretty damning. If you calculate the distribution of vote count _percentages_ across all electoral districts, you will see that there are spikes around multiples of 5 and 10%. That means the vote for the "right" candidate was rounded up to an even number on a statistically significant number of them.

ummonk 7y ago
Don’t those spikes happen in small districts though, where you’re likely to have 1,2,4,5,10,or20 votes which would all guarantee a result with a multiple of 5 or 10%?
- codedokode 7y ago
  I don't have those graphs with spikes at the moment, but there are more interesting ones. Here is an article in Russian with graphs [1]. This [2] is a graph where axis X contains a turnout percent (how many voters took part in voting at a polling station) and axis Y contains a number of polling stations with that value of turnout. Here is another graph [3]: axis X contains turnout percent, axis Y contains number of people registered at the polling stations and each point is a station (there are about 90 000 total in Russia). You can see that there are large polling stations with turnout above 90% and number of voters above 2000. You can also see that elections seem to be very popular as majority of the points lie in the right part of the graph. This graph [4] is built by the same rules, but contains data only on polling stations from one southern region - Ingushetia. You can see how neatly points align along the line at 80% turnout. People of Ingushetia are very active. These graphs [5] are built by the same rules, but for other region - Chechnya and for 4 different elections in 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2018. The perfect line in 2011 becomes diffused by 2018 and slightly shifts to the left. On the graph for year 2018 one can see that there are "atypical" polling stations who have suspiciously low turnout. One of possible explanations for this could be that in 2018 several dozens of brave volunteers decided to take a risk to go to Chechnya as observers. [1] https://habr.com/ru/post/352424/ https://habr.com/ru/post/352424/ [2] https://hsto.org/webt/2y/xh/wf/2yxhwffbr7oy0escvp1ecvmcjdc.png https://hsto.org/webt/2y/xh/wf/2yxhwffbr7oy0escvp1ecvmcjdc.p... [3] https://hsto.org/webt/4h/3e/ko/4h3ekola6f-to10zgpvlbg9bd1g.png https://hsto.org/webt/4h/3e/ko/4h3ekola6f-to10zgpvlbg9bd1g.p... [4] https://hsto.org/webt/ri/c6/ul/ric6ulcyzuefrxvnjm7n6g7qcz8.png https://hsto.org/webt/ri/c6/ul/ric6ulcyzuefrxvnjm7n6g7qcz8.p... [5] https://hsto.org/webt/dw/j2/bl/dwj2blnsrah7_fwkzbqk4eyucga.png https://hsto.org/webt/dw/j2/bl/dwj2blnsrah7_fwkzbqk4eyucga.p...

by m0zg 7y ago

ummonk 7y ago

Don’t those spikes happen in small districts though, where you’re likely to have 1,2,4,5,10,or20 votes which would all guarantee a result with a multiple of 5 or 10%?

codedokode 7y ago
I don't have those graphs with spikes at the moment, but there are more interesting ones. Here is an article in Russian with graphs [1]. This [2] is a graph where axis X contains a turnout percent (how many voters took part in voting at a polling station) and axis Y contains a number of polling stations with that value of turnout. Here is another graph [3]: axis X contains turnout percent, axis Y contains number of people registered at the polling stations and each point is a station (there are about 90 000 total in Russia). You can see that there are large polling stations with turnout above 90% and number of voters above 2000. You can also see that elections seem to be very popular as majority of the points lie in the right part of the graph. This graph [4] is built by the same rules, but contains data only on polling stations from one southern region - Ingushetia. You can see how neatly points align along the line at 80% turnout. People of Ingushetia are very active. These graphs [5] are built by the same rules, but for other region - Chechnya and for 4 different elections in 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2018. The perfect line in 2011 becomes diffused by 2018 and slightly shifts to the left. On the graph for year 2018 one can see that there are "atypical" polling stations who have suspiciously low turnout. One of possible explanations for this could be that in 2018 several dozens of brave volunteers decided to take a risk to go to Chechnya as observers. [1] https://habr.com/ru/post/352424/ https://habr.com/ru/post/352424/ [2] https://hsto.org/webt/2y/xh/wf/2yxhwffbr7oy0escvp1ecvmcjdc.png https://hsto.org/webt/2y/xh/wf/2yxhwffbr7oy0escvp1ecvmcjdc.p... [3] https://hsto.org/webt/4h/3e/ko/4h3ekola6f-to10zgpvlbg9bd1g.png https://hsto.org/webt/4h/3e/ko/4h3ekola6f-to10zgpvlbg9bd1g.p... [4] https://hsto.org/webt/ri/c6/ul/ric6ulcyzuefrxvnjm7n6g7qcz8.png https://hsto.org/webt/ri/c6/ul/ric6ulcyzuefrxvnjm7n6g7qcz8.p... [5] https://hsto.org/webt/dw/j2/bl/dwj2blnsrah7_fwkzbqk4eyucga.png https://hsto.org/webt/dw/j2/bl/dwj2blnsrah7_fwkzbqk4eyucga.p...