3 ms·

While the demographic time bomb is a long-term issue for a lot of advanced economies like Japan (but also China), it's kind of a separate issue than what's happ

While the demographic time bomb is a long-term issue for a lot of advanced economies like Japan (but also China), it's kind of a separate issue than what's happening in the EU today (and has been for the life of it). Ideally there'd be enough political will to finish the EU project, but that's even more of a long shot than Germany seeing the light on fiscal spending. Then there'd be actual transfer payments between rich and poor EU members, but barring that, Germany and the other rich EU members need to spend. All the single Germans should probably start taking more vacations in Greece and Spain and the rich ones should buy some Ferraris.

michaelt 7y ago
Rsync isn't talking about the demographic time bomb. What they mean is: Consumers having children directly causes higher consumer spending, because the child needs food, clothes, shoes, transport, education, medical care, furniture, holidays, sport, childcare and suchlike. And less directly they might want more bedrooms, a safer neighbourhood, a safer car, a stay-at-home parent, and so on. USDA figures [1] put the costs of having a child at 12% to 24% of household income (for richer and poorer families respectively) while some UK estimates [2] have put it as high as 38% Of course a childless couple can build savings like crazy, if they've got as much income as their peers who are parents, but their outgoings are that much lower! [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_raising_a_child#Dual-Parent_Family_-_USDA_Average_Spending_per_Child_(not_the_basic_cost_of_raising) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_raising_a_child#Dual-P... [2] https://www.lv.com/about-us/press/cost-of-a-child-2016 https://www.lv.com/about-us/press/cost-of-a-child-2016
- Despegar 7y ago
  Sure but I guess my point is that how Germany ends up allocating their fiscal spending doesn't really matter, as long as on balance they run deficits for a long period of time. Germany could give every German with a child a stipend to subsidize families (and if they're already doing that, increase the amount they get per child). I don't actually think that would make more Germans have children, but the ones that have families would be able to spend more.
  - majewsky 7y ago
    The administration has been trying to get people to have more children for a long time. Around the early 2000s, our birth rate was actually 1.4 children per mother, so the current 1.6-ish is already a significant improvement. This increase is usually attributed to three things: 1. "Elterngeld" (parental leave money): After a child is born, parents can take up to 14 months off and the state pays a portion of their last salary (70% afaik). Employers are required by law to accommodate parents who wish to take parental leave. 2. A few years ago, a "right to child daycare" is introduced. If you're working and want to give your child into daycare, the municipality has to offer you a place in their daycare facilities or, if they don't have enough, compensate you for lost income. (This isn't to say that you don't have to pay for that daycare, but "free child daycare" is now a popular slogan among many political parties and some states have already implemented it afaik.) 3. Not a policy, but there is ongoing pressure from society on employers to improve the work-life balance of parents. Things like making it easier to both men and women to work part-time after a child is born etc. It's still a problem that women are low-key discriminated against, as in "We cannot promote her into an important role. What if she has a child?", and the gender pay gap is still significant, and fathers doing parental work are still looked at funny sometimes, but it's all getting better. (Frustratingly slowly.)
    - kamyarg 7y ago
      on a slightly related note; daycare thing does not work though, every couple I know of in Berlin has been looking for kita like crazy even before the baby is born.

michaelt 7y ago

Rsync isn't talking about the demographic time bomb. What they mean is: Consumers having children directly causes higher consumer spending, because the child needs food, clothes, shoes, transport, education, medical care, furniture, holidays, sport, childcare and suchlike. And less directly they might want more bedrooms, a safer neighbourhood, a safer car, a stay-at-home parent, and so on. USDA figures [1] put the costs of having a child at 12% to 24% of household income (for richer and poorer families respectively) while some UK estimates [2] have put it as high as 38% Of course a childless couple can build savings like crazy, if they've got as much income as their peers who are parents, but their outgoings are that much lower! [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_raising_a_child#Dual-Parent_Family_-_USDA_Average_Spending_per_Child_(not_the_basic_cost_of_raising) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_raising_a_child#Dual-P... [2] https://www.lv.com/about-us/press/cost-of-a-child-2016 https://www.lv.com/about-us/press/cost-of-a-child-2016

Despegar 7y ago
Sure but I guess my point is that how Germany ends up allocating their fiscal spending doesn't really matter, as long as on balance they run deficits for a long period of time. Germany could give every German with a child a stipend to subsidize families (and if they're already doing that, increase the amount they get per child). I don't actually think that would make more Germans have children, but the ones that have families would be able to spend more.
- majewsky 7y ago
  The administration has been trying to get people to have more children for a long time. Around the early 2000s, our birth rate was actually 1.4 children per mother, so the current 1.6-ish is already a significant improvement. This increase is usually attributed to three things: 1. "Elterngeld" (parental leave money): After a child is born, parents can take up to 14 months off and the state pays a portion of their last salary (70% afaik). Employers are required by law to accommodate parents who wish to take parental leave. 2. A few years ago, a "right to child daycare" is introduced. If you're working and want to give your child into daycare, the municipality has to offer you a place in their daycare facilities or, if they don't have enough, compensate you for lost income. (This isn't to say that you don't have to pay for that daycare, but "free child daycare" is now a popular slogan among many political parties and some states have already implemented it afaik.) 3. Not a policy, but there is ongoing pressure from society on employers to improve the work-life balance of parents. Things like making it easier to both men and women to work part-time after a child is born etc. It's still a problem that women are low-key discriminated against, as in "We cannot promote her into an important role. What if she has a child?", and the gender pay gap is still significant, and fathers doing parental work are still looked at funny sometimes, but it's all getting better. (Frustratingly slowly.)
  - kamyarg 7y ago
    on a slightly related note; daycare thing does not work though, every couple I know of in Berlin has been looking for kita like crazy even before the baby is born.