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I feel like Uber became a gamble on self driving technology. It will be interesting to see if they can last long enough to see it happen. I could see them runni

I feel like Uber became a gamble on self driving technology. It will be interesting to see if they can last long enough to see it happen. I could see them running out of money before that happens but I kind of hope they make it.

paulcole 7y ago
Everyone talks about Uber being a bet on self-driving cars but how do they “win”? Are they going to own and maintain an absolutely massive fleet of self-driving cars which they can’t afford? If they’re leasing self-driving cars from the owners, you’re right back where you started, paying people to use their cars. Or is the idea they somehow figure out self-driving technology, license it to Ford or whoever, and then shut down the whole taxi business?
- usrusr 7y ago
  One model could be sticking to what they are doing now (payment/dispatch platform), but allowing the independent "investors" in rolling stock who also personally drive their investments to get slowly replaced by independent fleet operators who can be any scale, because the cars drive themselves. But that certainly does not explain why Uber would try their hands at developing self-driving tech themselves (or why the company should be excessively valuable)
  - ghaff 7y ago
    If you posit rentable (by mile/hour/day) autonomous vehicles available for purchase on the market, why wouldn't Hertz, Avis, National, etc. be the obvious owners and operators? They'd need to distribute their parking for these vehicles more than it is today. (Although Avis does own Zipcar.) But that seems like a pretty tractable problem.
dumbfoundded 7y ago
Uber really has no advantage to self-driving. A customer network doesn't mean much if you cannot finance actually building the cars. They also don't any training data to give them a tech advantage. It'd make way more sense for an existing car company to build the features into the car and let the owner rent out the car when they don't need it. (Telsa, GM/Cruise). Another option is to simply build the best technology and use ungodly piles of money to finance building the cars. Only Google or Apple could really do this.
- troquerre 7y ago
  Uber has an advantage bc the transition to fully autonomous self-driving will take years to decades to realize, not only on a technological level but on a political level. In the meantime we’ll introduce self-driving more and more with humans-in-the-look, and uber is in a great position to take advantage of that.
  - dumbfoundded 7y ago
    I agree. Self-driving cars will take a really long time to emerge. The progress will be gradual. According to George Holtz of Comma ai, great lane-keeping is the first major milestone. The problem with your logic is the connection to Uber. Uber doesn't control the cars their drivers use. Sure they can set restrictions but they never collect actual data that is useful for self-driving. The only data Uber collects is when and where people want to travel. Google & Apple both have this dataset (probably superior) through their map apps. The real data gathering will come in the way Tesla does. Gather data from real-time drivers by putting the necessary sensors in cars you sell. Maybe Uber could force their drivers to install kits but I doubt it. Self-driving cars will emerge over time as new features in cars you buy. This is already happening (ie brake assist). You'll then just get updates to your car when new features become available. There's a pretty good talk about the future self-driving cars here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwcYp-XT7UI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwcYp-XT7UI
- ma2rten 7y ago
  I don't think see the point of owning a car, if it's used by other people for most the day. I think there is going to be a big company that owns most cars. Uber could raise the capital for it on the stock market. The problem that I see is that Uber doesn't have the technology. In a world where self driving cars are a commodity, Uber's brand could be an advantage. But in reality, by the time Uber gets access to the technology the market has already been taken by others.
  - goatinaboat 7y ago
    This is a key bit of psychology that is often overlooked. People who get Ubers exclusively think that a car is a metal box on wheels that goes from A to B. But most people who own cars see them as a self-propelled room of their apartment or house, a personal space in other words. Like if you have a kid and drive your kid to places in your car then you probably leave loads of kid stuff in your car, and if the kid spill something you probably don’t worry too much about cleaning it to pristine state immediately. But imagine after every school run or activity or playdate you had to valet your car immaculate so strangers could use it. No one will do this.
empath75 7y ago
I have never understood why anyone would believe a money losing taxi business would be able to figure out a major ai problem.

paulcole 7y ago

Everyone talks about Uber being a bet on self-driving cars but how do they “win”? Are they going to own and maintain an absolutely massive fleet of self-driving cars which they can’t afford? If they’re leasing self-driving cars from the owners, you’re right back where you started, paying people to use their cars. Or is the idea they somehow figure out self-driving technology, license it to Ford or whoever, and then shut down the whole taxi business?

usrusr 7y ago
One model could be sticking to what they are doing now (payment/dispatch platform), but allowing the independent "investors" in rolling stock who also personally drive their investments to get slowly replaced by independent fleet operators who can be any scale, because the cars drive themselves. But that certainly does not explain why Uber would try their hands at developing self-driving tech themselves (or why the company should be excessively valuable)
- ghaff 7y ago
  If you posit rentable (by mile/hour/day) autonomous vehicles available for purchase on the market, why wouldn't Hertz, Avis, National, etc. be the obvious owners and operators? They'd need to distribute their parking for these vehicles more than it is today. (Although Avis does own Zipcar.) But that seems like a pretty tractable problem.

dumbfoundded 7y ago

Uber really has no advantage to self-driving. A customer network doesn't mean much if you cannot finance actually building the cars. They also don't any training data to give them a tech advantage. It'd make way more sense for an existing car company to build the features into the car and let the owner rent out the car when they don't need it. (Telsa, GM/Cruise). Another option is to simply build the best technology and use ungodly piles of money to finance building the cars. Only Google or Apple could really do this.

troquerre 7y ago
Uber has an advantage bc the transition to fully autonomous self-driving will take years to decades to realize, not only on a technological level but on a political level. In the meantime we’ll introduce self-driving more and more with humans-in-the-look, and uber is in a great position to take advantage of that.
- dumbfoundded 7y ago
  I agree. Self-driving cars will take a really long time to emerge. The progress will be gradual. According to George Holtz of Comma ai, great lane-keeping is the first major milestone. The problem with your logic is the connection to Uber. Uber doesn't control the cars their drivers use. Sure they can set restrictions but they never collect actual data that is useful for self-driving. The only data Uber collects is when and where people want to travel. Google & Apple both have this dataset (probably superior) through their map apps. The real data gathering will come in the way Tesla does. Gather data from real-time drivers by putting the necessary sensors in cars you sell. Maybe Uber could force their drivers to install kits but I doubt it. Self-driving cars will emerge over time as new features in cars you buy. This is already happening (ie brake assist). You'll then just get updates to your car when new features become available. There's a pretty good talk about the future self-driving cars here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwcYp-XT7UI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwcYp-XT7UI
ma2rten 7y ago
I don't think see the point of owning a car, if it's used by other people for most the day. I think there is going to be a big company that owns most cars. Uber could raise the capital for it on the stock market. The problem that I see is that Uber doesn't have the technology. In a world where self driving cars are a commodity, Uber's brand could be an advantage. But in reality, by the time Uber gets access to the technology the market has already been taken by others.
- goatinaboat 7y ago
  This is a key bit of psychology that is often overlooked. People who get Ubers exclusively think that a car is a metal box on wheels that goes from A to B. But most people who own cars see them as a self-propelled room of their apartment or house, a personal space in other words. Like if you have a kid and drive your kid to places in your car then you probably leave loads of kid stuff in your car, and if the kid spill something you probably don’t worry too much about cleaning it to pristine state immediately. But imagine after every school run or activity or playdate you had to valet your car immaculate so strangers could use it. No one will do this.

empath75 7y ago

I have never understood why anyone would believe a money losing taxi business would be able to figure out a major ai problem.