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Live ESP Experiment: Sexual Arousal Going Backwards in Time
- parapsych 16y agoThis is in response to http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2068730 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2068730.
- dholowiski 16y agoCan somebody who knows math comment - There is a 5 % difference on a sample of 700. Not huge, but that seems statistically significant? Please post the source code so we can verify, and try this ourselves...
- parapsych 16y agolikely to happen once in 50 experiments or so. I think we need more samples to gauge significance. Why do you need to try this offline? I'm not opposed to the idea, just curious.
- deleted 16y ago[deleted]
- dholowiski 16y agoNot offline, just on our own servers, so we can be sure it's random. But I didn't realize it was written in Javascript, so anyone can inspect the code. I don't like that it shows you your percentage as you go. Aren't people more likely to quit when their Porn finding skills are higher? Also, maybe i've been spoiled, but some of the 'erotic' pictures don't seem that erotic. However... it seems like the #'s are evening out now, both around 51% I think with a bit of re-design this could make for a great, and useful experiment.
- parapsych 16y agoWhether the picture appears on curtain 1 or 2 is predetermined, and the server provides proof in the form of a hash. You can see that on the bottom under your stats. Yeah, I had a tough time finding erotic pictures. If you have a better idea of where I can find some to hot-link, also for gay / female audiences, lmk.
- dholowiski 16y agoWhat are you talking about, of course I have no idea where to find those kind of pictures... although, and this is pure speculation, a Google images search with safe search turned off might return some interesting results.
- Natsu 16y ago> likely to happen once in 50 experiments or so. How many hypotheses did he investigate? I seem to remember reading that he said he had investigated a fairly large number of them before finding this one. If he investigated many different ways that people might manifest ESP only to find negative results in all but the porn study, then the odds change a bit. I mean, suppose you have 50 studies and a 1/50 chance of something like this--you'd have a 63.6% of ending up with a study like this one.
- liuhenry 16y agoAssuming each trial is independent and the experiment is a Bernoulli experiment (e.g. akin to flipping a coin 700 times), the probability that you will get a result within 5% of the expected mean (50%) is 81.4%. Remember, though, that the probability of getting EXACTLY 50% is only 3%. The probability of getting exactly +/- 5% is about 2.5%. So, you have about the same chance of getting that result as the theoretical. That by itself wouldn't mean anything, though - we need more information on the experiment. The best impromptu way to tell if it was significant would be to look at the distribution of the success rates of individual people. @Parapsych - What kind of data are you logging and would you be willing to release that?
- sorbus 16y agoCurrently down to a 0.5% difference with samples of a bit over 3000. Seems pretty insignificant to me.
- dholowiski 16y agoAt 8700 samples, it's 0.5% in favor of predicting non-erotic. Yup, seems pretty insignificant now.
- tejaswiy 16y agoWell done! I really wanted to do this myself :D
- parapsych 16y ago:) Glad you enjoyed it.
- tejaswiy 16y agoAny plans to do the other test too?
- parapsych 16y agoNow I do. Which one should I do?
- tejaswiy 16y agoThe one where you show a bunch of nouns (around 25 I think). Then ask the user to type in as many as they can remember. Then make the one group look at the nouns again after the test, and the control group just left alone. If his theory is right, the group that studied after the test should do better I think.
- Charuru 16y agoI don't understand why you're making us wait 10 seconds?
- parapsych 16y agoI thought I had to put some delay, so as to prevent users from blowing through the experiment. I'm not sure what to set it as. What seems appropriate to you?
- alex_c 16y agoWell, IF there's any future-reading effect to be found, and IF it diminishes over time, then shorter delays would show a stronger effect.
- jfager 16y agoI'm sure it has nothing to do with the big affiliate link on each picture.
- stavrianos 16y agoI feel like the fact that I can choose how many times to play might throw things? If I were more likely to stop after non-arousing image than after an arousing one, what will that do statistically?
- parapsych 16y agoEven if you decide to stop having kids after your first son, the population of males / females should be split evenly, so I don't think it would make a difference.
- staktrace 16y agoI don't think that's true. public class test { public static void main( String[] args ) throws Exception { int boys = 0, girls = 0; for (int i = 0; i < 1000000; i++) { boolean isBoy = (Math.random() >= 0.5); while (! isBoy) { girls++; isBoy = (Math.random() >= 0.5); } boys++; } System.out.println( "Boys: " + boys + "\nGirls: " + girls ); } }
- spicyj 16y agoI don't know what output you're getting, but this is what I got: $ java test Boys: 1000000 Girls: 996931 $ java test Boys: 1000000 Girls: 1001605 $ java test Boys: 1000000 Girls: 1001656 $ java test Boys: 1000000 Girls: 999473 $ java test Boys: 1000000 Girls: 1000645 Looks pretty even to me. Besides, if you compute the girls/boy ratio mathematically, you get 0/2 + 1/4 + 2/8 + 3/16 + 4/32 + 5/64 + ... which does converge to 1.
- tel 16y agoThis was recently released as an old Google interview question and sparked some controversy. This MathOverflow page [1] is a good (opinionated) summary. The best answer's author believes that with finitely many families the ratio actually doesn't work out evenly, but does converge to 50/50 with infinitely many families. [1] http://mathoverflow.net/questions/17960/google-question-in-a-country-in-which-people-only-want-boys http://mathoverflow.net/questions/17960/google-question-in-a...
- koepked 16y agoYou should maybe consider tracking which images are more likely to lead to a correct curtain selection. Then run an additional survey where subjects rank the same set of photos for hottness/arousal level, and see if there is a correlation.
- regehr 16y agopaf paf paf
- zemaj 16y agoI don't know. Some of those nonerotic photos are doing it for me :)
- nowarninglabel 16y agoNot sure if this is a sleight on myself or to the study, but I did not realize there were non-erotic photos in this study until I read your comment. I was confused with the nonerotic stat being presented below the erotic ESP stat during the study iterations.
- pamelafox 16y agoRe "this only works for straight males" - the research that I have read indicates that females are aroused by a much broader range of visual images (even images of monkeys), whereas males are focused on the images which are in their sexual preference realm. [I believe I read this in "Sex Before Dawn", a book I quite enjoyed.] So, anyway, it might work for females too. I was going to try it out, but after the first picture, I realized I should probably wait until I get home. :)
- naner 16y agothe research that I have read indicates that females are aroused by a much broader range of visual images (even images of monkeys) Physically aroused, not psychologically. There is no way to say this delicately but the women in the study would start lubricating when witnessing anything sexual in nature but they weren't on the verge of orgasm or anything. They could still find the imagery unpleasant and in fact didn't actually feel aroused while witnessing the monkey business. The researchers hypothesized that this had to do with protecting the lady parts even in a situation of unwanted sex.
- pamelafox 16y agoGood point, thanks for making that distinction. I think I would still reword "this will only work for straight males" to "this will only work for those that are aroused by men doing women" (or whatever the subject matter is, in this case). The audience is probably bigger than originally presumed.
- abless 16y agoIs anyone actually taking this _really_ seriously? I am still waiting for the prank to be revealed...
- ugh 16y agoWhat do you mean? Somebody read about an experiment with surprising results, found out that it would be possible to turn the experiment into a website and did just that. I think that’s great.
- abless 16y agoI am talking about the original experiment. I am wondering whether people actually give ESP a serious possibility. I am all for running experiments and finding out new things, and if this really happens to be a ground-breaking new discovery, great! That being said, what's more likely? That someone just _revolutionized_ physics and completely changed our concept of time, OOOOOR that there is something wrong with the experimental methodology? I don't know about you, but my 23 years on Earth make me think that the latter is quite a bit more probable...
- ugh 16y agoI think it’s rather unlikely that ESP is real. It’s a reality of statistics that scientists will from time to time get wrong results; that and possible methodological problems leave all scientific results (except maybe the most obvious ones) up in the air until they have been confirmed again and again and again. (Psychology could also pick a smaller alpha value like maybe physicists and avoid being wrong more often but it’s questionable how practical such a change would be.) Still, this is a neat DIY experiment. There is quite a bit you can criticize about the methodology but that discussion was pretty fun. Oh, and this experiment doesn’t even seem to confirm ESP. (I think. I didn’t break out the calculator.)
- ulvund 16y agoYou are more likely to quit after finding porn. That is the trick. It is reminiscent of the Martingale gambling strategy.
- maxwin 16y agoThere is a big hole in this experiment. Think about it, let's say the future me choose 1 curtain in round 5.And I was wrong so I see nothing and move on to round 6. And the current me reaches round 5. Since in the future, i do not see any sexual photo, there's no future (arousal) information coming back to help me. (well, maybe the waiting punishment may discourage me to pick the same one). If I got to see the sexy photo even if i pick the wrong one (with time delay to separate it from picking the right one), then I might be motivated to send back my arousal feelings back to the past so that i can see the picture without waiting.
- SapphireSun 16y agoI think the reason for the ESP is that people can decide to stop while they are ahead. The only legit way to do it would be to present a predetermined number of pictures and throw out the results if the entire sequence is not finished. This is the same problem as testing for statistical significance too early.
- moultano 16y agojudging from my own behavior, I think the bigger effect is quitting after a long string of losses, but YMMV
- deleted 16y ago[deleted]
- ajays 16y agoI just saw 2 pics and they were definitely not erotic. Maybe that explains the failure.
- jal278 16y agoanecdotally i was able to get 2/3 of porn and around 60% non-porn over 60 rounds...not statistically significant in itself, but piques my interest in this line of thought pie-in-the-sky thinking: is there some 'quantum immortality'-style argument that can be made for this sort of effect? quantum immortality is a somewhat fringe many-worlds-quantum-physics argument that an observer can never experience death and thus will always find him/herself in a universe in which they are alive (e.g. schrodinger's cat will always find itself in a universe where the atom did not decay). that is, in certain situations, a random event (e.g. decay of atom) would seemingly cease to be random (e.g. from the POV of schrodinger's cat) due to its consequences in the future (cat death by fumigation). also, if this arousal-esp-effect actually is real (obviously exceedingly unlikely due to how bizarre its implications would be) i wonder if the human choice element would even matter; i'd like to see a similar experiment where everything is the same but there is no human choice and the curtains are just randomly chosen. the effect (if it actually did exist) might be due not to somehow arousal traveling backwards informing our consciousness but somehow arousal traveling backwards to influence what universe we find ourselves in.
- batterseapower 16y agoThere is a nice paper explaining why the "PSI paper" is a sign that psychologists must adopt better statistics: http://www.ruudwetzels.com/articles/Wagenmakersetal_subm.pdf http://www.ruudwetzels.com/articles/Wagenmakersetal_subm.pdf There is a really nice paper that finally explained to me why Bayesian statistics might be superior to frequentist ideas for these purposes: http://pcl.missouri.edu/sites/default/files/Rouder.bf_.pdf http://pcl.missouri.edu/sites/default/files/Rouder.bf_.pdf
- shard 16y agoLet me guess, this is actually a disguised paid-referrer site for Naughty America.