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> Go shopping for a fridge, then buy one. You'll have fridge ads following you around even though you're not in the market for a fridge any more. This persiste

> Go shopping for a fridge, then buy one. You'll have fridge ads following you around even though you're not in the market for a fridge any more. This persistent meme commits the fallacy of believing that every person follows the precise same fact pattern as yourself: Buying a fridge on some predictable, perfectly recurring and invariant schedule. In fact, it is probably far more likely that a person who just bought a fridge will be favorably economically incentivized by an ad for a fridge than a randomly selected person. For one thing, we know that this is a person who will ever influence a decision to buy a fridge (because they in fact did buy a fridge). Many people will never select a fridge in their life (for reasons that include renting a home, moving into a home which already has a fridge, replacing a non-working fridge with whatever a repairperson selects and is thus not influenced by an ad, is not the person in their family who selects a fridge, etc.) A person who just bought a fridge is more likely to return that fridge and buy another than a randomly selected person is likely to buy a fridge in the same time period. A person who just bought a fridge is more likely to be a decision-maker in selecting another fridge in the near-term than a randomly selected person (for reasons that include: buying another fridge for their garage, buying one for their business, recommending one to their contacts). Buying a fridge is a rare event that probably absolutely correlates positively to buying another fridge.

naasking 7y ago
I don't know anyone who has ever returned a fridge. I know plenty of people who have bought one though. Can't say I find your argument all that convincing as a result. A more effective ad targeting model would advertise fridges to the friends of someone who recently bought a fridge though, due to a) keeping up with the Jones' effect, and b) friends are likely at similar life stages, ie. getting married, buying a home, etc.
mcv 7y ago
While this is true, it's more likely that the fridge buyer is also interested in an oven and some other kitchen appliances, or even a complete kitchen. The fridge ads are mostly interesting for someone who has searched for a fridge (either on Google or on the fridge seller's website) but hasn't bought one yet.

naasking 7y ago

I don't know anyone who has ever returned a fridge. I know plenty of people who have bought one though. Can't say I find your argument all that convincing as a result. A more effective ad targeting model would advertise fridges to the friends of someone who recently bought a fridge though, due to a) keeping up with the Jones' effect, and b) friends are likely at similar life stages, ie. getting married, buying a home, etc.

mcv 7y ago

While this is true, it's more likely that the fridge buyer is also interested in an oven and some other kitchen appliances, or even a complete kitchen. The fridge ads are mostly interesting for someone who has searched for a fridge (either on Google or on the fridge seller's website) but hasn't bought one yet.