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This has been rumored for some time on various railfan groups across the web and I've always figured it to be true. In a few instances, people have called out t

This has been rumored for some time on various railfan groups across the web and I've always figured it to be true. In a few instances, people have called out that trains are moving too quickly up grades for their supposed load or are way underpowered for a train if all the containers were full. It's all been a bit suspect. This has only fueled a lot of skepticism about the BRI. There's a few primary reasons for this: 1. Break of gauge: Any of the current routes require gauge changes between 5' and 4'8.5". Each time this occurs it incurs either (a) translating costs to move containers from railcar to railcar, or (b) bogie change costs. This both slows it down and adds significant labor expense to the endeavor which reduces competitiveness vs sea. Talgo (in Spain) makes gauge-changing bogies which theoretically can handle this, but they are not designed for the tonnage nor are they particularly well-suited to the extreme conditions found on the routes. 2. Axle Loading & Loading Gauge: The axle loads across the different networks are highly variable, requiring cars only be as heavy as the lightest network they travel on. In addition, the loading gauges are much tighter in Europe, resulting in only single containers of shorter length being allowed on COFC trains (Container on Flat Car) This isn't to say the problems aren't surmountable, just that they have not yet been and it is going to be difficult to do so in the future.

yread 7y ago
Interesting! Do you have any links to the railfan forums?
baybal2 7y ago
The explanation is more simple: 1. Russia 2. Kazakhstan Both charge Chinese trains many times more than their own rate. All those mind boggling subsidies basically translate into handing out free money to them for hauling air. And even if they were to be billed fairly, both Russian and Kazakhstani railways are both living from bailout to bailout themselves as: 1. Rail infrastructure is falling apart without a single major upgrade since the collapse of the Union 2. Rail is a patently bottomless watering hole for the bureaucrats running it 3. Most of money on the rail is spent on maintenance of unprofitable, and deeply underused routes god knows where in order to solicit more bailout money 4. Everything on Russian rail is done in the most inefficient way possible, also in order to solicit more bailouts. It is 2019, and Russia still uses human signallers, wooden ties, and sand ballast. Even passenger cars are still heated with firewood.
- magicsmoke 7y ago
  Isn't another branch of the rail system supposed to run south through Iran? What are the conditions on that branch like?
  - kposehn 7y ago
    They’re ok. Iranian rail is in rough shape. Most locomotives are older US-built EMD engines that they’re maintaining with smuggled or home-grown parts, or newer Siemens or Alston engines that are less reliable but also not worn down. China does want to have a standard gauge line through Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey. But it is proving hard to accomplish and the terrain is very rough. It would eliminate break of gauge as a problem though, but introduces lots of political and security issues as well.
- kposehn 7y ago
  Ehhh. They do put a lot of money into the Russian network and same in Kazakhstan, but it is by no means efficient or well used capital. It’s the primary lifeline in Russia for goods/bulk as they don’t have sea lanes or major rivers through major agricultural areas (like the Mississippi). The state of the main trunk lines (moscow-Vladivostok, Baikal-Amur, etc) is actually quite good. But lots of secondary and “state-interest” lines are either in poor repair, wastes of money, or both.
  - jcranmer 7y ago
    > as they don’t have sea lanes or major rivers through major agricultural areas (like the Mississippi). Russia does have major rivers (Don, Volga, Ob, Yenisei, and Lena), but the problem is they all go in the wrong direction--they're all north-south instead of east-west. In addition, they don't exactly lead to good port facilities, with the Don being the only one with an ice-free port connected to the world's oceans.
    - kposehn 7y ago
      Thanks - you explained it better than I :)
jcranmer 7y ago
> Break of gauge: Any of the current routes require gauge changes between 5' and 4'8.5". You'd think that with Chinese money, the former Soviet Union countries in the way would be happy to dual-gauge their track.
- magicsmoke 7y ago
  Trains carry tanks as well as goods. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia leaned on them not to get too cozy with China.
  - redis_mlc 7y ago
    Correct. I believe in WW2 the Germans had a problem with different gauge in Russia, and horses were still used mainly, and of course got eaten! :)
    - kposehn 7y ago
      Yep! Though, the different gauge was actually not intentional by Stalin to make things harder on the Germans but actual a decision by the tzar (debunking that old myth)
  - thaumasiotes 7y ago
    According to legend, when the king of Qin wanted to conquer Shu (which occupied an enviable defensive position behind two mountain ranges), he offered Shu's king a diplomatic gift, five large stone statues. Given the obvious impossibility of taking the statues across the mountains on foot, he also offered to construct a road from Qin into Shu at his own expense. The king of Shu accepted, the road was built, and the statues arrived. The armies of Qin followed shortly thereafter.
    - magicsmoke 7y ago
      The way I've heard this legend was that the king of Qin enticed the king of Shu to take the statues by making it appear they could defecate gold. At night, he would have servants drop gold around their hinds, and in the morning he would coincidentally take Shu ambassadors on a walk near the statues. That's how the news got to the Shu king about these miraculous gold-pooping cows.
jk27277 7y ago
There is technology for this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_gauge https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_gauge
- kposehn 7y ago
  It exists, as I noted, but is nowhere near reliable enough or able to deal with the punishment and extreme conditions. That said, it may improve over time to a point where it doesn’t matter - but that is not yet the case.
LargoLasskhyfv 7y ago
Why would your 1(a) be a problem compared to transport by ship? As i see it only requires 2 reloadings, one when entering broad gauge, and another when leaving. Both can be automated. If it needs to be, remains to be seen. According to [1] http://en.khorgosgateway.com/sections/%D0%98%D0%BD%D1%84%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B0_%D1%81%D1%83%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82%D0%B0 http://en.khorgosgateway.com/sections/%D0%98%D0%BD%D1%84%D1%... this one of several "dry ports" with gauge change has the capacity of handling 18000 containers per day, which is about one modern large container ship. Leaving the broad gauge zone isn't bottlenecked to one place either. Regarding the axle loads and loading gauges i can't see your point either, since almost anything broad gauge is built according to former soviet standards and their heavy needs. It's not like the parts of track used for this are rotten since the collapse. This is all rebuilt, new, and maintained in good condition. In the harbour town i live in which is standard gauge country, the only limitation seems to be the length of trains, which tops out at 750m/2460ft. I see 53ft containers on trains, trucks, standing here and there, though it is not common, so it stands out. Anyways, it works? It´s just inertia, and jabbering by established parties which have interests to protect. Nobody cares. More options in transport are a good thing. Diversity!

yread 7y ago

Interesting! Do you have any links to the railfan forums?

baybal2 7y ago

The explanation is more simple: 1. Russia 2. Kazakhstan Both charge Chinese trains many times more than their own rate. All those mind boggling subsidies basically translate into handing out free money to them for hauling air. And even if they were to be billed fairly, both Russian and Kazakhstani railways are both living from bailout to bailout themselves as: 1. Rail infrastructure is falling apart without a single major upgrade since the collapse of the Union 2. Rail is a patently bottomless watering hole for the bureaucrats running it 3. Most of money on the rail is spent on maintenance of unprofitable, and deeply underused routes god knows where in order to solicit more bailout money 4. Everything on Russian rail is done in the most inefficient way possible, also in order to solicit more bailouts. It is 2019, and Russia still uses human signallers, wooden ties, and sand ballast. Even passenger cars are still heated with firewood.

magicsmoke 7y ago
Isn't another branch of the rail system supposed to run south through Iran? What are the conditions on that branch like?
- kposehn 7y ago
  They’re ok. Iranian rail is in rough shape. Most locomotives are older US-built EMD engines that they’re maintaining with smuggled or home-grown parts, or newer Siemens or Alston engines that are less reliable but also not worn down. China does want to have a standard gauge line through Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey. But it is proving hard to accomplish and the terrain is very rough. It would eliminate break of gauge as a problem though, but introduces lots of political and security issues as well.
kposehn 7y ago
Ehhh. They do put a lot of money into the Russian network and same in Kazakhstan, but it is by no means efficient or well used capital. It’s the primary lifeline in Russia for goods/bulk as they don’t have sea lanes or major rivers through major agricultural areas (like the Mississippi). The state of the main trunk lines (moscow-Vladivostok, Baikal-Amur, etc) is actually quite good. But lots of secondary and “state-interest” lines are either in poor repair, wastes of money, or both.
- jcranmer 7y ago
  > as they don’t have sea lanes or major rivers through major agricultural areas (like the Mississippi). Russia does have major rivers (Don, Volga, Ob, Yenisei, and Lena), but the problem is they all go in the wrong direction--they're all north-south instead of east-west. In addition, they don't exactly lead to good port facilities, with the Don being the only one with an ice-free port connected to the world's oceans.
  - kposehn 7y ago
    Thanks - you explained it better than I :)

jcranmer 7y ago

> Break of gauge: Any of the current routes require gauge changes between 5' and 4'8.5". You'd think that with Chinese money, the former Soviet Union countries in the way would be happy to dual-gauge their track.

magicsmoke 7y ago
Trains carry tanks as well as goods. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia leaned on them not to get too cozy with China.
- redis_mlc 7y ago
  Correct. I believe in WW2 the Germans had a problem with different gauge in Russia, and horses were still used mainly, and of course got eaten! :)
  - kposehn 7y ago
    Yep! Though, the different gauge was actually not intentional by Stalin to make things harder on the Germans but actual a decision by the tzar (debunking that old myth)
- thaumasiotes 7y ago
  According to legend, when the king of Qin wanted to conquer Shu (which occupied an enviable defensive position behind two mountain ranges), he offered Shu's king a diplomatic gift, five large stone statues. Given the obvious impossibility of taking the statues across the mountains on foot, he also offered to construct a road from Qin into Shu at his own expense. The king of Shu accepted, the road was built, and the statues arrived. The armies of Qin followed shortly thereafter.
  - magicsmoke 7y ago
    The way I've heard this legend was that the king of Qin enticed the king of Shu to take the statues by making it appear they could defecate gold. At night, he would have servants drop gold around their hinds, and in the morning he would coincidentally take Shu ambassadors on a walk near the statues. That's how the news got to the Shu king about these miraculous gold-pooping cows.

jk27277 7y ago

There is technology for this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_gauge https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_gauge

kposehn 7y ago
It exists, as I noted, but is nowhere near reliable enough or able to deal with the punishment and extreme conditions. That said, it may improve over time to a point where it doesn’t matter - but that is not yet the case.

LargoLasskhyfv 7y ago

Why would your 1(a) be a problem compared to transport by ship? As i see it only requires 2 reloadings, one when entering broad gauge, and another when leaving. Both can be automated. If it needs to be, remains to be seen. According to [1] http://en.khorgosgateway.com/sections/%D0%98%D0%BD%D1%84%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B0_%D1%81%D1%83%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82%D0%B0 http://en.khorgosgateway.com/sections/%D0%98%D0%BD%D1%84%D1%... this one of several "dry ports" with gauge change has the capacity of handling 18000 containers per day, which is about one modern large container ship. Leaving the broad gauge zone isn't bottlenecked to one place either. Regarding the axle loads and loading gauges i can't see your point either, since almost anything broad gauge is built according to former soviet standards and their heavy needs. It's not like the parts of track used for this are rotten since the collapse. This is all rebuilt, new, and maintained in good condition. In the harbour town i live in which is standard gauge country, the only limitation seems to be the length of trains, which tops out at 750m/2460ft. I see 53ft containers on trains, trucks, standing here and there, though it is not common, so it stands out. Anyways, it works? It´s just inertia, and jabbering by established parties which have interests to protect. Nobody cares. More options in transport are a good thing. Diversity!