2 ms·
This shows an incredible ignorance of the employment market of tool and die makers in the US and the American manufacturing enviroment in general. Simply put,
by Balgair 7y ago
This shows an incredible ignorance of the employment market of tool and die makers in the US and the American manufacturing enviroment in general.
Simply put, the US has nowhere close to the skilled labor force needed to 'bring it home'. In Flint, MI, as of 2017, journeyman die-makers pull about $130k. Yes, that Flint. [0,1] Yes, starting wages for a CS bachelors in SF. But for a person without a HS degree. In Flint.
Journeyman takes about 5 years of post-HS apprenticeshiping and the relevant CAD and math skills, FYI.
So, you may be thinking that in about 5 years time the US would be able to get back to where we are today.
We currently have ~70k tool and die makers in the US [2]. Though numbers are very hard to come by, as of 2006 there were about 3 million tool and die makers in China, about 1 million of which came at the expense of US jobs [3]. So, we need to grow the US tool and die makers in the US by roughly 1500%. Not 10%, not 100%, not 500%, but by ~1500%.
That, simply, is not going to happen without massive government financial input. That bill, to get all the tool and die makers that we need in the next 5 years at ~$15/hr that an apprentice makes, would cost about $145,000,000,000 in just wages. For just die-makers. Then you have assemblers, machinists, lathers, welders, etc. We're talking trillions at the low-ball numbers for the cost to re-educate the workforce. This will be a double digit percentage increase in the cost to manufacture anything that you pay for. The US consumer and the US government are simply not going to pay for that.
[0] https://www.industryweek.com/supply-chain/tool-and-dying-auto-leaders-ford-fca-brainstorm-saving-shops-sustain-them https://www.industryweek.com/supply-chain/tool-and-dying-aut...
[1] https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Certification=Journeyman_Tool_and_Die_Maker/Hourly_Rate https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Certification=Journeyma... US average wage for die-making is about $26/hr, FYI.
[2] https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes514111.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes514111.htm
[3] https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/moncrieff_statement.pdf https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/moncrieff_statement...