3 ms·

This isn't just about myself, though. There are approximately 50 other projects all working towards distributed social network. Some may be farther than other

This isn't just about myself, though. There are approximately 50 other projects all working towards distributed social network. Some may be farther than others, but there's just too much interest from the open source world to say that Facebook's reign (or the reign of walled gardens, even) is immortal. And I would even wager that, once a protocol is adopted, that some of the smaller social networking sites will add support for it as a way to compete with the big guys. It may take time, it may not be for a while, and it won't happen over night, but those of us who believe strongly in the open web are a bit too zealous to ever admit defeat.

dasil003 16y ago
Sure, but how long will it take to topple Facebook? The article talks about 2011. I'd be willing to bet Facebook will still be the largest social network in 2020. 10 years in tech is an eternity, so I feel that that's a pretty strong assertion. To say that some kind of set of open social networking protocol will dominate in 15, 20, 30 years is a pretty open-ended prediction that's hard to argue with.
- michaelchisari 16y ago
  My prediction is that by around 2013/2014, Facebook will use an open, distributed protocol. Just like AOL eventually embraced SMTP and the web. They will still be one of the biggest nodes (expect one of China's social networks to fight for that crown, however), but as time goes on, it will matter less and less. Just like AOL.
  - ryanwaggoner 16y ago
    Sorry, but no way. By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol. Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login. Next up will be allowing people to pay for things using Facebook credits with a single click. Aside from that, what's the real benefit to an "open distributed social network" for normal people? Comparison to email isn't quite right, because email was still taking off back in the AOL days, but everyone is on Facebook now. So there's no need to worry about whether someone is on FB. Additionally, using FB doesn't wall you off in the same way that AOL did vs. the normal web. You can use some niche social network AND Facebook. I just don't see the big deal, and the vast majority of Facebook users don't either. There's just not a pain point that these open "solutions" solve. I applaud your dedication to openness, but just because other things have gone open doesn't mean that social networking will, and definitely not in the next 3-4 years. Two things could kill Facebook: long-term technology trends, and Facebook itself. The former will take forever, and the latter seems unlikely, given most people's disregard for their own data privacy. In either case, FB will still be on top in 2020.
    - michaelchisari 16y ago
      By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol. If Facebook pushes a truly distributed protocol, then I have no issue with that. I'll build a set of hooks for Appleseed to support that protocol, and I'm sure the other projects will do the same. Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login. That's not a distributed protocol, when you're dealing with a centralized login. just because other things have gone open doesn't mean that social networking will, and definitely not in the next 3-4 years Would you like to cast a wager on that? In all seriousness. I'll bet you $1 that by 2015, Facebook is either facing, or has faced, a major challenge from open standards in the social networking space.
      - ryanwaggoner 16y ago
        I don't mean "distributed protocol" in the same sense that you do. A post ago, you said they would use an open distributed protocol by 2013/2014, but now they'll just have to be facing a "major challenge" from one by 2015? You should post a challenge on longbets.org.
        michaelchisari 16y ago
        I don't mean "distributed protocol" in the same sense that you do. What do you mean, then? Facebook's graph api is definitely not distributed, it's very centralized. now they'll just have to be facing a "major challenge" from one by 2015? I'll gladly take the wager that they'll be using an open, distributed protocol by 2013/2014. How about this, $2 for that, $1 for a major challenge by 2015.

dasil003 16y ago

Sure, but how long will it take to topple Facebook? The article talks about 2011. I'd be willing to bet Facebook will still be the largest social network in 2020. 10 years in tech is an eternity, so I feel that that's a pretty strong assertion. To say that some kind of set of open social networking protocol will dominate in 15, 20, 30 years is a pretty open-ended prediction that's hard to argue with.

michaelchisari 16y ago
My prediction is that by around 2013/2014, Facebook will use an open, distributed protocol. Just like AOL eventually embraced SMTP and the web. They will still be one of the biggest nodes (expect one of China's social networks to fight for that crown, however), but as time goes on, it will matter less and less. Just like AOL.
- ryanwaggoner 16y ago
  Sorry, but no way. By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol. Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login. Next up will be allowing people to pay for things using Facebook credits with a single click. Aside from that, what's the real benefit to an "open distributed social network" for normal people? Comparison to email isn't quite right, because email was still taking off back in the AOL days, but everyone is on Facebook now. So there's no need to worry about whether someone is on FB. Additionally, using FB doesn't wall you off in the same way that AOL did vs. the normal web. You can use some niche social network AND Facebook. I just don't see the big deal, and the vast majority of Facebook users don't either. There's just not a pain point that these open "solutions" solve. I applaud your dedication to openness, but just because other things have gone open doesn't mean that social networking will, and definitely not in the next 3-4 years. Two things could kill Facebook: long-term technology trends, and Facebook itself. The former will take forever, and the latter seems unlikely, given most people's disregard for their own data privacy. In either case, FB will still be on top in 2020.
  - michaelchisari 16y ago
    By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol. If Facebook pushes a truly distributed protocol, then I have no issue with that. I'll build a set of hooks for Appleseed to support that protocol, and I'm sure the other projects will do the same. Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login. That's not a distributed protocol, when you're dealing with a centralized login. just because other things have gone open doesn't mean that social networking will, and definitely not in the next 3-4 years Would you like to cast a wager on that? In all seriousness. I'll bet you $1 that by 2015, Facebook is either facing, or has faced, a major challenge from open standards in the social networking space.
    - ryanwaggoner 16y ago
      I don't mean "distributed protocol" in the same sense that you do. A post ago, you said they would use an open distributed protocol by 2013/2014, but now they'll just have to be facing a "major challenge" from one by 2015? You should post a challenge on longbets.org.
      - michaelchisari 16y ago
        I don't mean "distributed protocol" in the same sense that you do. What do you mean, then? Facebook's graph api is definitely not distributed, it's very centralized. now they'll just have to be facing a "major challenge" from one by 2015? I'll gladly take the wager that they'll be using an open, distributed protocol by 2013/2014. How about this, $2 for that, $1 for a major challenge by 2015.