3 ms·

this article mostly seems like a lot of applause lights. The author likes 'open' and wants to believe that 'open' will win. It's won once before, and so the aut

by MBlume 16y ago

this article mostly seems like a lot of applause lights. The author likes 'open' and wants to believe that 'open' will win. It's won once before, and so the author calls it 'inevitable'. That's not supporting an argument. The universe is still allowed to turn around and say 'so what,' and do something different.

michaelchisari 16y ago
It's inevitable, because those of us who are working on it aren't going to give up, amongst other reasons. Further, the ability to have niche/community/localized, etc. social networking sites that inter-operate is an achilles heel to the one-site-fits-all approach of Facebook. Once a set of social networking sites come out that inter-operate, and people see how it's done, then Facebook, Myspace, etc. will all feel very antiquated and walled off. Imagine when people started trading email addresses, and the AOL people had to say "no, I can't email, but my aol screen name is..."
- dasil003 16y ago
  That doesn't mean it's inevitable, you may well die before you succeed. The ability for federated social networking to take off hinges on user experience. It's not impossible, but Facebook has a huge advantage in crafting a user experience because it doesn't have to worry about the technical pitfalls of a federated system.
  - michaelchisari 16y ago
    This isn't just about myself, though. There are approximately 50 other projects all working towards distributed social network. Some may be farther than others, but there's just too much interest from the open source world to say that Facebook's reign (or the reign of walled gardens, even) is immortal. And I would even wager that, once a protocol is adopted, that some of the smaller social networking sites will add support for it as a way to compete with the big guys. It may take time, it may not be for a while, and it won't happen over night, but those of us who believe strongly in the open web are a bit too zealous to ever admit defeat.
    - dasil003 16y ago
      Sure, but how long will it take to topple Facebook? The article talks about 2011. I'd be willing to bet Facebook will still be the largest social network in 2020. 10 years in tech is an eternity, so I feel that that's a pretty strong assertion. To say that some kind of set of open social networking protocol will dominate in 15, 20, 30 years is a pretty open-ended prediction that's hard to argue with.
      - michaelchisari 16y ago
        My prediction is that by around 2013/2014, Facebook will use an open, distributed protocol. Just like AOL eventually embraced SMTP and the web. They will still be one of the biggest nodes (expect one of China's social networks to fight for that crown, however), but as time goes on, it will matter less and less. Just like AOL.
        ryanwaggoner 16y ago
        Sorry, but no way. By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol. Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login. Next up will be allowing people to pay for things using Facebook credits with a single click. Aside from that, what's the real benefit to an "open distributed social network" for normal people? Comparison to email isn't quite right, because email was still taking off back in the AOL days, but everyone is on Facebook now. So there's no need to worry about whether someone is on FB. Additionally, using FB doesn't wall you off in the same way that AOL did vs. the normal web. You can use some niche social network AND Facebook. I just don't see the big deal, and the vast majority of Facebook users don't either. There's just not a pain point that these open "solutions" solve. I applaud your dedication to openness, but just because other things have gone open doesn't mean that social networking will, and definitely not in the next 3-4 years. Two things could kill Facebook: long-term technology trends, and Facebook itself. The former will take forever, and the latter seems unlikely, given most people's disregard for their own data privacy. In either case, FB will still be on top in 2020.
        16y ago
- McP 16y ago
  You mean like http://www.opensocial.org/ http://www.opensocial.org/ ?

by MBlume 16y ago

michaelchisari 16y ago

It's inevitable, because those of us who are working on it aren't going to give up, amongst other reasons. Further, the ability to have niche/community/localized, etc. social networking sites that inter-operate is an achilles heel to the one-site-fits-all approach of Facebook. Once a set of social networking sites come out that inter-operate, and people see how it's done, then Facebook, Myspace, etc. will all feel very antiquated and walled off. Imagine when people started trading email addresses, and the AOL people had to say "no, I can't email, but my aol screen name is..."

dasil003 16y ago
That doesn't mean it's inevitable, you may well die before you succeed. The ability for federated social networking to take off hinges on user experience. It's not impossible, but Facebook has a huge advantage in crafting a user experience because it doesn't have to worry about the technical pitfalls of a federated system.
- michaelchisari 16y ago
  This isn't just about myself, though. There are approximately 50 other projects all working towards distributed social network. Some may be farther than others, but there's just too much interest from the open source world to say that Facebook's reign (or the reign of walled gardens, even) is immortal. And I would even wager that, once a protocol is adopted, that some of the smaller social networking sites will add support for it as a way to compete with the big guys. It may take time, it may not be for a while, and it won't happen over night, but those of us who believe strongly in the open web are a bit too zealous to ever admit defeat.
  - dasil003 16y ago
    Sure, but how long will it take to topple Facebook? The article talks about 2011. I'd be willing to bet Facebook will still be the largest social network in 2020. 10 years in tech is an eternity, so I feel that that's a pretty strong assertion. To say that some kind of set of open social networking protocol will dominate in 15, 20, 30 years is a pretty open-ended prediction that's hard to argue with.
    - michaelchisari 16y ago
      My prediction is that by around 2013/2014, Facebook will use an open, distributed protocol. Just like AOL eventually embraced SMTP and the web. They will still be one of the biggest nodes (expect one of China's social networks to fight for that crown, however), but as time goes on, it will matter less and less. Just like AOL.
      - ryanwaggoner 16y ago
        Sorry, but no way. By 2014, Facebook will BE the distributed protocol. Look how many sites already use Facebook as their primary (or only) source of login. Next up will be allowing people to pay for things using Facebook credits with a single click. Aside from that, what's the real benefit to an "open distributed social network" for normal people? Comparison to email isn't quite right, because email was still taking off back in the AOL days, but everyone is on Facebook now. So there's no need to worry about whether someone is on FB. Additionally, using FB doesn't wall you off in the same way that AOL did vs. the normal web. You can use some niche social network AND Facebook. I just don't see the big deal, and the vast majority of Facebook users don't either. There's just not a pain point that these open "solutions" solve. I applaud your dedication to openness, but just because other things have gone open doesn't mean that social networking will, and definitely not in the next 3-4 years. Two things could kill Facebook: long-term technology trends, and Facebook itself. The former will take forever, and the latter seems unlikely, given most people's disregard for their own data privacy. In either case, FB will still be on top in 2020.
        16y ago
McP 16y ago
You mean like http://www.opensocial.org/ http://www.opensocial.org/ ?