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I agree with most what you analyzed. However this is somewhat debatable, their poor demographics lack of youth due to family planning means labour heavy man

by devy 7y ago

I agree with most what you analyzed. However this is somewhat debatable, their poor demographics lack of youth due to family planning means labour heavy manufacturing is on the way out... I am not sure if you are aware that the family planning policy (aka 1-child policy) has already been lifted years ago. The declining birth rate has to do with the young urban population don't want to have offsprings as much as their parents (social-economical changes, education cost etc.)

dirtyid 7y ago
I'm aware, lifting restrictions doesn't mean increasingly urbanized population will have 2+ children. Chinese women are marrying and starting families late, if at all. Or that new generations will want to work in factories vs air conditioned offices as China pivots towards service driven growth and internal consumption. And as wages grow it becomes infeasible to compete on labour with less developed countries. Automation means most manufacturing doesn't have to leave China for the same reasons why manufacturing never left the US. It just won't be done by people anymore.