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If you have stock gains that you need, and can't live without - consider your exit price, and perform proper portfolio maintenance. Recession indicators have b
by czbond 7y ago
If you have stock gains that you need, and can't live without - consider your exit price, and perform proper portfolio maintenance.
Recession indicators have been in play for about 2 years. If nothing else, be much more aware of your high downside risk - and at least scenario model if we go down to multi-decade lows. Specifically in any items with negative EPShare, or not necessities. We're in the cycle now that hits equities -> mid-consumer spending -> business spending -> consumer spending -> real estate. Don't consider the specifics of this message, but the generalities and apply to life
Prepare for years of lower rates of return; If you own property, you will be able to re-fi in a few years to some very low rates. Cash is king for fire sales - lots of people will be going super broke the next 5 years. House prices will de-value enough, so don't buy property for the next 1-3 years. Stock market can revert to 50% of current values.
Edit: used this technique to purchase my first house, firesale. Will do it again this round, along with other lessons learned ;)
Edit 2: Listen to your own companies investor calls (if large enough) - you can predict upcoming layoffs. If you need a new job, do it now before wages stagnate or deflate some. Place yourself in a line of business that is close to a revenue stream of the business, they're rarely cut.
- lbotos 7y ago> House prices will de-value enough, so don't buy property for the next 1-3 years. I don't follow. Are you saying don't buy until till the drop or, don't buy when it drops?
- czbond 7y agoEach house market would act differently, some with a depressed recovery, some a whipsaw recovery. Watch your own market as the rule applies "last to go up, first to go down". Coastal markets will drop enough, interior less. Here is a good Case Shiller analysis of prices over time for markets. Buy when it gets near last periods low prices (do own analysis, don't rely on my flippant date mention though...). https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/01/housing-bubbles-chicago-dallas-atlanta-minneapolis-charlotte-still-crushed-detroit-cleveland/ https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/01/housing-bubbles-chicago-da...