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Show HN: Is Yield Curve Inverted?
- billconan 7y agousually after how long into a recession will the yield curve reverse back? And how will that predict an economic recovery?
- yesimapro 7y agoSite is down
- iamwil 7y agoJust takes a little bit to load if someone hadn't hit it in a while.
- toomuchtodo 7y agoIamwil: can you run this backwards for as far back as data exists?
- iamwil 7y agoYes. I just didn't display all the data. I think it goes back to the 90's or so.
- quickthrower2 7y agoWhat does it mean if yield curve is inverted?
- iamwil 7y agoTypically, people that lend out their money for longer periods of time want a higher interest rate for lending out that money, than if they lend out at a shorter time frame. The yield curve inverts when the interest rate you get for lending long term bonds (~10 years) is less than the interest rate you get for short term bonds (~1 year). Every recession in the last 8 or so recessions had been predated by a yield curve inversion, so people take it to be a predictor of a slowing economy now.
- cbanek 7y agoWhile it's true the 10 year - 1 year spread is negative, usually when you're talking about yield curve inversions, the duration people focus on is the 10 year - 2 year. That's not currently inverted, but very shortly it was, which kind of triggered all the news stories. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y The 10 year - 3 month spread has been negative since May when the last big stock market selloff was. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M