4 ms·
Perhaps I'm just more incredulous. Many more people are just as sure that homeopathy works and that vaccines cause autism, so I'd just as soon assume it's psych
by pron 7y ago
Perhaps I'm just more incredulous. Many more people are just as sure that homeopathy works and that vaccines cause autism, so I'd just as soon assume it's psychology at work. But I think what you're saying is that we don't yet have beneficial techniques just ideas that could lead to them. I can't argue with that because I have no information one way or another. All I'm saying is, when someone does figure out how to develop software considerably better/faster, that achievement would be hard to hide.
- lmm 7y agoI suspect that the effective techniques are known (or "known") to some practitioners, but buried among a pile of ineffective techniques, with different people swearing by different techniques based on their experiences. Similar to how traditional medicine can be a mixture of genuinely important treatments for local medical circumstances and completely ineffective treatments that happened to be (spuriously) correlated with good outcomes. You're quite right about how it looks from the outside; the possibility that I'm just experiencing my own set of spurious correlations is real and worrying. But ultimately there's only so far that I'm willing to overrule my own lived experience. I wish I shared your confidence about future progress. There have been good and bad managers, and good and bad communicators, for decades, but we don't seem much closer to a generally understood method that can be applied by everyone.