5 ms·

That's an interesting interpretation of the data. To me, it looks like Model S/X sales have noticeably dropped since the introduction of the Jaguar and Audi. I

That's an interesting interpretation of the data. To me, it looks like Model S/X sales have noticeably dropped since the introduction of the Jaguar and Audi. I don't think there will be a singular Tesla killer, but rather, Tesla is increasingly going to be attacked by all sides: Hyundai/Nissan/GM on the mass market side, Jaguar/Audi/Mercedes/BMW on the luxury side, and Porsche on the ultra luxury high end. The Model 3/Y is currently positioned in the premium segment between mass market and luxury. That's sorta Honda/Toyota territory; I think they'll need to bring out EVs for Tesla to be in serious trouble.

radium3d 7y ago
Perhaps the model 3 is cannibalizing s and x sales instead? It is much more modern and nearly identical in speed and has ample storage and comfort. The s is better if you need more space and longer range, x if storage is your need. I imagine s and x are a hard sell with the steering wheel UX being much more complex and confusing plus the similarities compared with the model 3 for a much higher price tag.
- kenhwang 7y ago
  What happened with the Model 3 in 2019 that would cause the drop off in 2019 sales? If anything, the Model 3 would've impacted sales from 2017-onward when it was introduced.
  - gibolt 7y ago
    It began selling in large quantities and more locales. Word of mouth, access to test drive, and the vast amount of internet/media hype, and nearly comparable performance could combine to reduce likelihood to buy above the 3.
  - taneq 7y ago
    They only started delivering Model 3s in any significant numbers around the end of 2018.
    - mikeash 7y ago
      And the cheaper SR+ version only became available this year.
nimbius 7y ago
Another aspect is repair. Speaking as someone who works full time as an engine mechanic, sourcing parts or even being allowed to do repair work for a Tesla is a tedious process. Everything comes from one factory with no distribution network, so a door panel repair can take months to fix . In contrast, I can get nearly any part for an Audi delivered to the shop in 2 days and the digital books for service interval and installation are all at my fingertips.
- kenhwang 7y ago
  My personal experience with Audi was what you described. Car was involved in a fender bender. Insurance said bring the car to any shop. New parts were ordered (presumably pre-painted) and installed with the car returned in 3 days.
- alexkiritz 7y ago
  That's an issue Tesla has, but I don't think that would at all explain a drop in Model 3 sales.
  - icelancer 7y ago
    I think it has some impact. People who would buy a Tesla are clued into doing online research, and see the news about their repair problems. I personally would have already leased/bought a Model 3 if I didn't have serious concerns about their supply chain and repair issues brought to light by people like Rich Rebuilds and others. I am waiting it out to see if it improves, or if Tesla goes bankrupt/forced merged and their IP lives on elsewhere.
- kevstev 7y ago
  This to me is the biggest issue with Tesla- they aren't a startup that just did its first big product release and is struggling to keep up with demand, they are a 16 year old company that is still failing to keep up with demand and can not support its customer base. They aren't building on a scale never seen before, this is relatively small scale for the traditional manufacturers. Yet you hear stories about how 3's in particular seem to be in some cases thrown out the door out of sheer will. Tesla is just kind of fascinating this way- pushing the envelope in so many places, but just floundering to get the basics right in so many others. I really hope they succeed, and may even buy a model 3 when I am next in the market for a new car, but I feel they are still selling to "early adopters" when they really should have been out of these growing pains years ago. I would never recommend one to my less tech enthused family members.
throwaway156503 7y ago
> That’s sorta Honda/Toyota territory. A kid in my office said the same thing and I have no idea where people are getting this from. A brand new Model 3 costs about as much as an Audi A4, BMW 3-Series, or Mercedes-Benz C-Class. The Model 3 is a compact executive car, and competes directly in that category. It is for the mass affluent. Not the mass market.
- FDSGSG 7y ago
  If we're talking about the price, you're right. But if we're talking about actually sitting in the car, Tesla is definitely in Honda/Toyota territory.
  - throwaway156503 7y ago
    Yes, that's true.

radium3d 7y ago

Perhaps the model 3 is cannibalizing s and x sales instead? It is much more modern and nearly identical in speed and has ample storage and comfort. The s is better if you need more space and longer range, x if storage is your need. I imagine s and x are a hard sell with the steering wheel UX being much more complex and confusing plus the similarities compared with the model 3 for a much higher price tag.

kenhwang 7y ago
What happened with the Model 3 in 2019 that would cause the drop off in 2019 sales? If anything, the Model 3 would've impacted sales from 2017-onward when it was introduced.
- gibolt 7y ago
  It began selling in large quantities and more locales. Word of mouth, access to test drive, and the vast amount of internet/media hype, and nearly comparable performance could combine to reduce likelihood to buy above the 3.
- taneq 7y ago
  They only started delivering Model 3s in any significant numbers around the end of 2018.
  - mikeash 7y ago
    And the cheaper SR+ version only became available this year.

nimbius 7y ago

Another aspect is repair. Speaking as someone who works full time as an engine mechanic, sourcing parts or even being allowed to do repair work for a Tesla is a tedious process. Everything comes from one factory with no distribution network, so a door panel repair can take months to fix . In contrast, I can get nearly any part for an Audi delivered to the shop in 2 days and the digital books for service interval and installation are all at my fingertips.

kenhwang 7y ago
My personal experience with Audi was what you described. Car was involved in a fender bender. Insurance said bring the car to any shop. New parts were ordered (presumably pre-painted) and installed with the car returned in 3 days.
alexkiritz 7y ago
That's an issue Tesla has, but I don't think that would at all explain a drop in Model 3 sales.
- icelancer 7y ago
  I think it has some impact. People who would buy a Tesla are clued into doing online research, and see the news about their repair problems. I personally would have already leased/bought a Model 3 if I didn't have serious concerns about their supply chain and repair issues brought to light by people like Rich Rebuilds and others. I am waiting it out to see if it improves, or if Tesla goes bankrupt/forced merged and their IP lives on elsewhere.
kevstev 7y ago
This to me is the biggest issue with Tesla- they aren't a startup that just did its first big product release and is struggling to keep up with demand, they are a 16 year old company that is still failing to keep up with demand and can not support its customer base. They aren't building on a scale never seen before, this is relatively small scale for the traditional manufacturers. Yet you hear stories about how 3's in particular seem to be in some cases thrown out the door out of sheer will. Tesla is just kind of fascinating this way- pushing the envelope in so many places, but just floundering to get the basics right in so many others. I really hope they succeed, and may even buy a model 3 when I am next in the market for a new car, but I feel they are still selling to "early adopters" when they really should have been out of these growing pains years ago. I would never recommend one to my less tech enthused family members.

throwaway156503 7y ago

> That’s sorta Honda/Toyota territory. A kid in my office said the same thing and I have no idea where people are getting this from. A brand new Model 3 costs about as much as an Audi A4, BMW 3-Series, or Mercedes-Benz C-Class. The Model 3 is a compact executive car, and competes directly in that category. It is for the mass affluent. Not the mass market.

FDSGSG 7y ago
If we're talking about the price, you're right. But if we're talking about actually sitting in the car, Tesla is definitely in Honda/Toyota territory.
- throwaway156503 7y ago
  Yes, that's true.