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According to the article, they have less range than a Tesla Model 3 and cost substantially more. That seems like a hard thing to sell.

threeseed 7y ago
They aren't competitors for the Model 3 but rather a Model Y. And not sure why people are so obsessed with range. It's the megapixels/megahertz spec nonsense again. People don't buy ICE cars based purely on MPG but also for exterior/interior design, quality, comfort, brand, support, seating capacity etc and most importantly what the car says about you as a person.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- onion2k 7y ago
  People buy ICE cars knowing the petrol delivery infrastructure means they'll never run out of gas on a long trip. People are wary of short range electric vehicles because they might not find a charger in time, or the chargers they do find might be in use, and then they'll be stranded.
  - gibolt 7y ago
    Range anxiety is definitely a thing, especially if you've never driven an EV and have heard it exists. The issue is a non-issue for most Tesla buyers who have home charging. The situation will hopefully resolve itself unquestionably in the next 2-3 years.
    - onion2k 7y ago
      Home charging isn't an option for a lot of people who don't have a garage or a driveway. We're going to see a lot of "electric petrol stations" being built very soon - it's already happening... https://fastnedcharging.com/en https://fastnedcharging.com/en
      - taneq 7y ago
        The Supercharger network is already an "electric petrol station" network and it's pretty comprehensive in many parts of the world. Edit: Also it's notably cheaper than the one you linked, generally below $0.20/kWh according to https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supercharger-tiered-pricing-structure/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supercharger-tiered-pricing-... compared with $0.35/kWh
        onion2k 7y ago
        I live in Sunderland in the North East of the UK. There is a Supercharger near where I live, but beyond that it's quite sparse - https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/findus#/bounds/65,55,34,-11,d?search=supercharger&name=Europe&place=berwickuksupercharger https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/findus#/bounds/65,55,34,-11,d?se... I'd be a bit apprehensive about relying on Superchargers alone if I had a Tesla (not that there's any chance of me owning one ever, I don't earn nearly enough).
        icelancer 7y ago
        The Supercharger network is not going to be a major thing anytime soon in Seattle where we have very cheap hydroelectric power (10c/kWh or less, hence why solar adoption here sucks [the weather isn't helping much either though it's less bad than people think]) and a packed city with terribly expensive real estate that makes it uneconomical for Tesla to build out massively in the city (plus our geography is stupid, look at the giant body of water splitting our city in two). The Supercharger network will be used - and is currently used - to bridge longer commutes fast. Not for intra-city deployment; at least not at the moment.
        greedo 7y ago
        Tesla considers having a single Supercharger stations as comprehensive? My city has one. A city of 300K + people. We have over 100 gas stations. Superchargers are a nice premium during the early adoption period but as the number of owners rise, its utility drops. Unless Tesla plans on increasing the number of stations by a magnitude, it won't be more than PR.
    - rlpb 7y ago
      As a potential EV buyer, what concerns me is that a quoted 200 mile range sounds more like a 100 mile range after five years (so an older battery) in winter (when I'll want heating). That would limit me to driving only 50 miles from my home without having to alter my plans around charging, and I would want to add some contingency so perhaps that'd end up being 30 miles in practice. Feel free to tell me that I'm being overly pessimistic, but that's how our consumer-hostile marketing culture (in general and not specifically the EV industry) has taught me to be. Rapid battery degradation in typical consumer devices also influences my impression. Perhaps regularly replacing/refurbishing batteries would help with this. How would this affect the TCO when compared to a gasoline car? I don't know. What's the resale value of an old EV likely to be given the rapid development in the newest models, and how will that affect the TCO? Again, I don't know.
      - magicalhippo 7y ago
        My BMW i3 has an 8 year 80% battery warranty. Tesla does very well with their battery management. Leaf is not so great, but far from 50% at 5 years unless you mistreat it AFAIK. Yes, winter will reduce range. I had a worst-case trip this year, it was around -18 C outside and I had not had a chance to pre-heat the batteries. Car was 99% charged, showing 200 km range initially. After some 135 km the car showed about 10 km range left, when I finally got to a charger. This was with two passengers, both front seat heaters on, as well as the cabin heater working hard. If we assume the estimated range left is somewhat accurate, that's about 63% the typical summer range of about 230 km. Had I preheated the batteries it would have been better, though I don't have any numbers. Resale value is something I worry about too. That's part of the reason I went with an i3 rather than a more expensive Model 3. Though at least here in Norway, I expect EVs to be dominating soon, and with the price of gas I expect ICE resale value will take a hit.
        rlpb 7y ago
        Thank you for writing that up. It is useful to consider a real-world scenario from an existing EV owner that has some real data. > Leaf is not so great, but far from 50% at 5 years unless you mistreat it AFAIK. I got to 50% by combining reduced range from an old battery with reduced range from winter use. > about 63% So 80% (your battery warranty minimum) of 63% is 50.4%, so was my 50% guess spot on then, or have I missed something?
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > People don't buy ICE cars based purely on MPG Because range typically isn't a problem with ICE cars. I really like the Honda e. It looks good and has good features: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEKq8jmckz0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEKq8jmckz0 But its number one problem is lack of range. Solid-state batteries with better energy density will solve that problem, but those batteries aren't here yet.
- colordrops 7y ago
  Range means less time messing around looking for charging, and less planning and waiting during long trips.
- bestnameever 7y ago
  Range/MPG can certainly be a determining factor for many. Many people might even narrow their focus to certain models based on range/mpg and not even look at those that don't check their marks. That's my experience anyway, maybe you can provide a source that says otherwise?
  - riantogo 7y ago
    You are right. Range/MPG is one of the primary (if not the top) consideration when moving form ICE to EV. Not sure what the parent is talking about.
- taurath 7y ago
  > And not sure why people are so obsessed with range. Because people like doing road trips, staying away from home for a few days at a time
- lsc 7y ago
  >not sure why people are so obsessed with range. so for newer/more expensive car with a 200+mile range? yeah, that's probably enough for most people, with enough reserve to get you to a supercharger. I mean, it is a pain, 'cause a lot of people like to park at the supercharger and it gets to be a problem, but geting gas is a pain, too... so sure, if your range is comfortably over 200 miles, for many people, maybe even most Americans, that should be plenty. but that's the high end. and if they lose 20% range after 5 years, only the 'extended range' variants of the high end cars seem to have more than 200 miles. As a more typical auto-buyer, (well, more typical than the 200 mile plus new car buyers) I'm looking to buy a car right now, as uber/lyft seem to be about 30% more expensive than they were pre-IPO, once you count the difference in special offers given to me. I've always regarded it as a luxury, but it slowly is getting too expensive for me. One of the cars under consideration is a used leaf: a 2012 model year or thereabouts. It's an all around reasonable car, it's gone through most of it's depreciation curve, etc.. it's newer than the average car your average American is driving. It's got a usable range around 50 miles. (that's only down like 20% from what it advertised new) this is... probably fine for me. I don't have charging facilities at home, and installing those in the shared garage would be iffy... would require HOA approval. but I do have (free!) charging facilities at work, 10 miles away. But I am a bit unusual. I don't particularly like driving, not for daily, utilitarian purposes anyhow. If I buy the thing, as I'll be stepping down from taking uber/lyft everywhere, so I'm already all setup to use trains or airplanes for anything over 20 miles or so, and for that matter, I live with someone that owns a petrol car, so it's all just kinda extra. but I work with a lot of people (a lot of very highly paid people, the sort who buy nice luxury cars) who have commutes that are more than 50 miles each way - and you usually want enough power that you can go a day without charging. Now, I also have a bunch of co-workers who have Teslas with extended range packages, and there is some overlap with the long commutes. But... without those extended range packages, that would be pretty iffy. And these are people who have the luxury of replacing their car often; they really don't have to worry about things like battery degradation. The average American is going to find a 50 mile range unacceptable; the average American would find the 150 mile range of the new base model nissan leaf to be pretty confining, for that matter. I'm gonna go ahead and say that 200 and change is gonna be the minimum for most people, and then only if they can install a charger (I.E. they don't live in an apartment.) or can charge at work. (my work does tell me not to rely on work charging as my only charge... but eh, if the chargers are full/down one day a week or what have you, uber/lyft probably still has some legs.)
- magicalhippo 7y ago
  > And not sure why people are so obsessed with range. Having recently bought an EV, range is one of the primary limitations of EVs and one of the parameters which varies greatly between manufacturers and models. When you're out of juice you need to be near a charger, and you need to wait a fair bit to recharge compared to an ICE. So naturally you want to buy an EV which has sufficient range that you can do almost all of your driving without thinking about the range. Tesla's getting into the "good enough" territory for most people but until most EVs are there, range will be one of the key metrics for EVs.
- gwbas1c 7y ago
  My first EV was an 80 mile Leaf. Now I have a 300 mile Model 3 that I take regular road trips in. To be quite honest, with the range hit in cold weather, (I take the car skiing,) 300 miles per charge just isn't enough. EVs need about 400-500 miles range in order to have mass adoption. Anything less is delusional.
  - tomatocracy 7y ago
    Yes. New ICE cars have a typical range of 300+ miles today. But most people don't drive 299 miles between filling up - they probably do more like 150 because psychology drives a lot of people towards looking to refill at the next cheap place as soon as they're below half a tank - because noone wants to be stranded because they chanced it then the range meter turned out to be wrong/the place they were planning on refueling turned out to be closed/whatever. On top of that you can buy ICE cars with 600+ mile range in merely Okish conditions (80-100 litre fuel tank) today as an option. EVs just can't compete with that. Until they can (and charging infrastructure is such that noone will worry about being able to charge overnight literally anywhere they might choose to go), they'll be competing in a much smaller market.

threeseed 7y ago

They aren't competitors for the Model 3 but rather a Model Y. And not sure why people are so obsessed with range. It's the megapixels/megahertz spec nonsense again. People don't buy ICE cars based purely on MPG but also for exterior/interior design, quality, comfort, brand, support, seating capacity etc and most importantly what the car says about you as a person.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
onion2k 7y ago
People buy ICE cars knowing the petrol delivery infrastructure means they'll never run out of gas on a long trip. People are wary of short range electric vehicles because they might not find a charger in time, or the chargers they do find might be in use, and then they'll be stranded.
- gibolt 7y ago
  Range anxiety is definitely a thing, especially if you've never driven an EV and have heard it exists. The issue is a non-issue for most Tesla buyers who have home charging. The situation will hopefully resolve itself unquestionably in the next 2-3 years.
  - onion2k 7y ago
    Home charging isn't an option for a lot of people who don't have a garage or a driveway. We're going to see a lot of "electric petrol stations" being built very soon - it's already happening... https://fastnedcharging.com/en https://fastnedcharging.com/en
    - taneq 7y ago
      The Supercharger network is already an "electric petrol station" network and it's pretty comprehensive in many parts of the world. Edit: Also it's notably cheaper than the one you linked, generally below $0.20/kWh according to https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supercharger-tiered-pricing-structure/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supercharger-tiered-pricing-... compared with $0.35/kWh
      - onion2k 7y ago
        I live in Sunderland in the North East of the UK. There is a Supercharger near where I live, but beyond that it's quite sparse - https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/findus#/bounds/65,55,34,-11,d?search=supercharger&name=Europe&place=berwickuksupercharger https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/findus#/bounds/65,55,34,-11,d?se... I'd be a bit apprehensive about relying on Superchargers alone if I had a Tesla (not that there's any chance of me owning one ever, I don't earn nearly enough).
      - icelancer 7y ago
        The Supercharger network is not going to be a major thing anytime soon in Seattle where we have very cheap hydroelectric power (10c/kWh or less, hence why solar adoption here sucks [the weather isn't helping much either though it's less bad than people think]) and a packed city with terribly expensive real estate that makes it uneconomical for Tesla to build out massively in the city (plus our geography is stupid, look at the giant body of water splitting our city in two). The Supercharger network will be used - and is currently used - to bridge longer commutes fast. Not for intra-city deployment; at least not at the moment.
      - greedo 7y ago
        Tesla considers having a single Supercharger stations as comprehensive? My city has one. A city of 300K + people. We have over 100 gas stations. Superchargers are a nice premium during the early adoption period but as the number of owners rise, its utility drops. Unless Tesla plans on increasing the number of stations by a magnitude, it won't be more than PR.
  - rlpb 7y ago
    As a potential EV buyer, what concerns me is that a quoted 200 mile range sounds more like a 100 mile range after five years (so an older battery) in winter (when I'll want heating). That would limit me to driving only 50 miles from my home without having to alter my plans around charging, and I would want to add some contingency so perhaps that'd end up being 30 miles in practice. Feel free to tell me that I'm being overly pessimistic, but that's how our consumer-hostile marketing culture (in general and not specifically the EV industry) has taught me to be. Rapid battery degradation in typical consumer devices also influences my impression. Perhaps regularly replacing/refurbishing batteries would help with this. How would this affect the TCO when compared to a gasoline car? I don't know. What's the resale value of an old EV likely to be given the rapid development in the newest models, and how will that affect the TCO? Again, I don't know.
    - magicalhippo 7y ago
      My BMW i3 has an 8 year 80% battery warranty. Tesla does very well with their battery management. Leaf is not so great, but far from 50% at 5 years unless you mistreat it AFAIK. Yes, winter will reduce range. I had a worst-case trip this year, it was around -18 C outside and I had not had a chance to pre-heat the batteries. Car was 99% charged, showing 200 km range initially. After some 135 km the car showed about 10 km range left, when I finally got to a charger. This was with two passengers, both front seat heaters on, as well as the cabin heater working hard. If we assume the estimated range left is somewhat accurate, that's about 63% the typical summer range of about 230 km. Had I preheated the batteries it would have been better, though I don't have any numbers. Resale value is something I worry about too. That's part of the reason I went with an i3 rather than a more expensive Model 3. Though at least here in Norway, I expect EVs to be dominating soon, and with the price of gas I expect ICE resale value will take a hit.
      - rlpb 7y ago
        Thank you for writing that up. It is useful to consider a real-world scenario from an existing EV owner that has some real data. > Leaf is not so great, but far from 50% at 5 years unless you mistreat it AFAIK. I got to 50% by combining reduced range from an old battery with reduced range from winter use. > about 63% So 80% (your battery warranty minimum) of 63% is 50.4%, so was my 50% guess spot on then, or have I missed something?
clouddrover 7y ago
> People don't buy ICE cars based purely on MPG Because range typically isn't a problem with ICE cars. I really like the Honda e. It looks good and has good features: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEKq8jmckz0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEKq8jmckz0 But its number one problem is lack of range. Solid-state batteries with better energy density will solve that problem, but those batteries aren't here yet.
colordrops 7y ago
Range means less time messing around looking for charging, and less planning and waiting during long trips.
bestnameever 7y ago
Range/MPG can certainly be a determining factor for many. Many people might even narrow their focus to certain models based on range/mpg and not even look at those that don't check their marks. That's my experience anyway, maybe you can provide a source that says otherwise?
- riantogo 7y ago
  You are right. Range/MPG is one of the primary (if not the top) consideration when moving form ICE to EV. Not sure what the parent is talking about.
taurath 7y ago
> And not sure why people are so obsessed with range. Because people like doing road trips, staying away from home for a few days at a time
lsc 7y ago
>not sure why people are so obsessed with range. so for newer/more expensive car with a 200+mile range? yeah, that's probably enough for most people, with enough reserve to get you to a supercharger. I mean, it is a pain, 'cause a lot of people like to park at the supercharger and it gets to be a problem, but geting gas is a pain, too... so sure, if your range is comfortably over 200 miles, for many people, maybe even most Americans, that should be plenty. but that's the high end. and if they lose 20% range after 5 years, only the 'extended range' variants of the high end cars seem to have more than 200 miles. As a more typical auto-buyer, (well, more typical than the 200 mile plus new car buyers) I'm looking to buy a car right now, as uber/lyft seem to be about 30% more expensive than they were pre-IPO, once you count the difference in special offers given to me. I've always regarded it as a luxury, but it slowly is getting too expensive for me. One of the cars under consideration is a used leaf: a 2012 model year or thereabouts. It's an all around reasonable car, it's gone through most of it's depreciation curve, etc.. it's newer than the average car your average American is driving. It's got a usable range around 50 miles. (that's only down like 20% from what it advertised new) this is... probably fine for me. I don't have charging facilities at home, and installing those in the shared garage would be iffy... would require HOA approval. but I do have (free!) charging facilities at work, 10 miles away. But I am a bit unusual. I don't particularly like driving, not for daily, utilitarian purposes anyhow. If I buy the thing, as I'll be stepping down from taking uber/lyft everywhere, so I'm already all setup to use trains or airplanes for anything over 20 miles or so, and for that matter, I live with someone that owns a petrol car, so it's all just kinda extra. but I work with a lot of people (a lot of very highly paid people, the sort who buy nice luxury cars) who have commutes that are more than 50 miles each way - and you usually want enough power that you can go a day without charging. Now, I also have a bunch of co-workers who have Teslas with extended range packages, and there is some overlap with the long commutes. But... without those extended range packages, that would be pretty iffy. And these are people who have the luxury of replacing their car often; they really don't have to worry about things like battery degradation. The average American is going to find a 50 mile range unacceptable; the average American would find the 150 mile range of the new base model nissan leaf to be pretty confining, for that matter. I'm gonna go ahead and say that 200 and change is gonna be the minimum for most people, and then only if they can install a charger (I.E. they don't live in an apartment.) or can charge at work. (my work does tell me not to rely on work charging as my only charge... but eh, if the chargers are full/down one day a week or what have you, uber/lyft probably still has some legs.)
magicalhippo 7y ago
> And not sure why people are so obsessed with range. Having recently bought an EV, range is one of the primary limitations of EVs and one of the parameters which varies greatly between manufacturers and models. When you're out of juice you need to be near a charger, and you need to wait a fair bit to recharge compared to an ICE. So naturally you want to buy an EV which has sufficient range that you can do almost all of your driving without thinking about the range. Tesla's getting into the "good enough" territory for most people but until most EVs are there, range will be one of the key metrics for EVs.
gwbas1c 7y ago
My first EV was an 80 mile Leaf. Now I have a 300 mile Model 3 that I take regular road trips in. To be quite honest, with the range hit in cold weather, (I take the car skiing,) 300 miles per charge just isn't enough. EVs need about 400-500 miles range in order to have mass adoption. Anything less is delusional.
- tomatocracy 7y ago
  Yes. New ICE cars have a typical range of 300+ miles today. But most people don't drive 299 miles between filling up - they probably do more like 150 because psychology drives a lot of people towards looking to refill at the next cheap place as soon as they're below half a tank - because noone wants to be stranded because they chanced it then the range meter turned out to be wrong/the place they were planning on refueling turned out to be closed/whatever. On top of that you can buy ICE cars with 600+ mile range in merely Okish conditions (80-100 litre fuel tank) today as an option. EVs just can't compete with that. Until they can (and charging infrastructure is such that noone will worry about being able to charge overnight literally anywhere they might choose to go), they'll be competing in a much smaller market.