5 ms·
What’s the probability that the US exists in 100 years?
by artfulhippo 7y ago
What’s the probability that the US exists in 100 years?
- chewz 7y agoIf it won't someone else will pay. Countries fall and mutate but their borrowings get paid. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repudiation_of_debt_at_the_Russian_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repudiation_of_debt_at_the_Rus... https://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/19/world/russia-redeeming-czar-s-bonds.html https://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/19/world/russia-redeeming-cz...
- hedora 7y agoPresumably, the collapse of the government would coincide with a period of hyperinflation. Since US bonds are payable in US dollars (I think), that would effectively wipe out the debt. In the Russian example, the bond holders claimed they were owed about 100x the actual payout.
- kccqzy 7y agoHyperinflation would only come from the successor government's stupid decision to print money. If the successor government is led by smart, reasonable, and ethical people, I don't see how hyperinflation must be a consequence.
- shoo 7y agoThat's an interesting question! Can anyone suggest a good way to estimate this? I'd estimate the odds at around 80%-90%, but I don't have any coherent working to back that up. Note that very few human institutions have lifespans of 1000 years or more: a few universities and the Catholic church. I'd hazard a guess it is highly unlikely that the US exists in 750 years.