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I think piracy is highly likely without a strong unified (not necessarily American) naval presence. It wouldn't be Somalian pirates. I'd guess it'd look more li
by dumbfoundded 7y ago
I think piracy is highly likely without a strong unified (not necessarily American) naval presence. It wouldn't be Somalian pirates. I'd guess it'd look more like the piracy of the 17th and 18th century where state-sponsored individuals create profit and havoc from interference with competing countries.
Shipping fragmentation also seems likely without a strong global navy. As you mention, the Petrodollar is dependent on the US Navy. The collapse or hampering of energy trade alone would launch the world into a great depression.
I'm not sure how you're trying to relate the modernization of militaries. From my understanding, the USA exports old versions of our military technology to many allies.
- ryacko 7y agoIt requires very little equipment to fight a future war against pirates? Or even disorganized militia groups acting as pirates? The US did more to hamper oil prices by invading Iraq than anything else.
- dumbfoundded 7y agoIt would require enormous resources to combat pirates. I'd look at the comment above about whales & efficiency as a better explanation than I can provide. Piracy would be more like terrorism than a traditional war. Extremely asymmetric costs & predictability. As for oil prices, the Iraqi war did disrupt Iraqi oil production for about a year. In 2004, oil production reached pre-war levels and has been growing steadily since. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iraq/crude-oil-production https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iraq/crude-oil-product...