4 ms·

I'd recommend "The Accidental Superpower" - Peter Zeihan. To summarize, he views the world economy as entirely enabled by the US Navy. The protection and proje

I'd recommend "The Accidental Superpower" - Peter Zeihan. To summarize, he views the world economy as entirely enabled by the US Navy. The protection and projection of this naval forced has allowed an unparalleled level of relatively free global trade. With the population bust, he predicts the US will turn inwards. The world economy will fragment. Less rigid economies will collapse. Global investment will all but dry up. His argumentation style is compelling whether or not you want to accept or debate his conclusions.

ryacko 7y ago
I find it unlikely that piracy and government navies imposing tolls on shipping lanes will return without a US Navy. The Petrodollar is dependent on the US Navy, but that is it. Very few militaries have modernized, until recently, if the Falklands War occurred again, the British and the Argentines would be largely using the same weapons and equipment (partly from deliveries of the F-35), the greatest pressure on tyrants is access to their Swiss bank accounts, or whatever many apartments they own through shell companies in New York or London.
- dumbfoundded 7y ago
  I think piracy is highly likely without a strong unified (not necessarily American) naval presence. It wouldn't be Somalian pirates. I'd guess it'd look more like the piracy of the 17th and 18th century where state-sponsored individuals create profit and havoc from interference with competing countries. Shipping fragmentation also seems likely without a strong global navy. As you mention, the Petrodollar is dependent on the US Navy. The collapse or hampering of energy trade alone would launch the world into a great depression. I'm not sure how you're trying to relate the modernization of militaries. From my understanding, the USA exports old versions of our military technology to many allies.
  - ryacko 7y ago
    It requires very little equipment to fight a future war against pirates? Or even disorganized militia groups acting as pirates? The US did more to hamper oil prices by invading Iraq than anything else.
    - dumbfoundded 7y ago
      It would require enormous resources to combat pirates. I'd look at the comment above about whales & efficiency as a better explanation than I can provide. Piracy would be more like terrorism than a traditional war. Extremely asymmetric costs & predictability. As for oil prices, the Iraqi war did disrupt Iraqi oil production for about a year. In 2004, oil production reached pre-war levels and has been growing steadily since. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iraq/crude-oil-production https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iraq/crude-oil-product...
- NeedMoreTea 7y ago
  There is essentially nothing of the Falkland's era still in use by British forces. Let's see: rifles, uniforms, destroyers, frigates, aircraft carriers, aircraft, helicopters, missile systems all replaced since then, mainly 21st century. Significant lessons - both in the UK and US - were taken from the frigates hit in the Falklands. Ship design, weapon fit, and uniform materials were changed as a result. Only thing I can think of from the 80s, is some of the minesweepers, and those were commissioned after the Falklands.
dredmorbius 7y ago
Whales, and supersized cargo ships, are both enabled by much the same dynamics: - Widely separated, highly-beneficial, feeding grounds. - Exceedingly efficient onboarding systems. - No credible predators. This enables long hull shapes, high speeds, few resources devoted to defence, and exceptionally efficient metabolisms. A blue whale eats 8,000 - 16,000 kg/day of krill, or 7-15 million calories. That's a continuous energy output of 350 - 700 kW, or about 500 - 1,000 horsepower. Cargo ships, whether liquid, bulk ore, or container, load and unload tremendous amounts of cargo quickly (the Iranian tanker in the news today carries 2.1 million barrels of oil, a $115 million cargo, which it can load or unload in a matter of hours). In a world where ships cannot simply sail direct routes to destinations, must detect and evade, or defend against assaults, or risk capture or loss, transport logistics will become vastly more complex, and costs far greater. The SS Great Eastern, the first large steamship, launched in 1859, still carried cannon on her decks: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Deck_of_the_%27Great_Eastern%27.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Deck_of_the_%27Great_Ea...

ryacko 7y ago

I find it unlikely that piracy and government navies imposing tolls on shipping lanes will return without a US Navy. The Petrodollar is dependent on the US Navy, but that is it. Very few militaries have modernized, until recently, if the Falklands War occurred again, the British and the Argentines would be largely using the same weapons and equipment (partly from deliveries of the F-35), the greatest pressure on tyrants is access to their Swiss bank accounts, or whatever many apartments they own through shell companies in New York or London.

dumbfoundded 7y ago
I think piracy is highly likely without a strong unified (not necessarily American) naval presence. It wouldn't be Somalian pirates. I'd guess it'd look more like the piracy of the 17th and 18th century where state-sponsored individuals create profit and havoc from interference with competing countries. Shipping fragmentation also seems likely without a strong global navy. As you mention, the Petrodollar is dependent on the US Navy. The collapse or hampering of energy trade alone would launch the world into a great depression. I'm not sure how you're trying to relate the modernization of militaries. From my understanding, the USA exports old versions of our military technology to many allies.
- ryacko 7y ago
  It requires very little equipment to fight a future war against pirates? Or even disorganized militia groups acting as pirates? The US did more to hamper oil prices by invading Iraq than anything else.
  - dumbfoundded 7y ago
    It would require enormous resources to combat pirates. I'd look at the comment above about whales & efficiency as a better explanation than I can provide. Piracy would be more like terrorism than a traditional war. Extremely asymmetric costs & predictability. As for oil prices, the Iraqi war did disrupt Iraqi oil production for about a year. In 2004, oil production reached pre-war levels and has been growing steadily since. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iraq/crude-oil-production https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iraq/crude-oil-product...
NeedMoreTea 7y ago
There is essentially nothing of the Falkland's era still in use by British forces. Let's see: rifles, uniforms, destroyers, frigates, aircraft carriers, aircraft, helicopters, missile systems all replaced since then, mainly 21st century. Significant lessons - both in the UK and US - were taken from the frigates hit in the Falklands. Ship design, weapon fit, and uniform materials were changed as a result. Only thing I can think of from the 80s, is some of the minesweepers, and those were commissioned after the Falklands.

dredmorbius 7y ago

Whales, and supersized cargo ships, are both enabled by much the same dynamics: - Widely separated, highly-beneficial, feeding grounds. - Exceedingly efficient onboarding systems. - No credible predators. This enables long hull shapes, high speeds, few resources devoted to defence, and exceptionally efficient metabolisms. A blue whale eats 8,000 - 16,000 kg/day of krill, or 7-15 million calories. That's a continuous energy output of 350 - 700 kW, or about 500 - 1,000 horsepower. Cargo ships, whether liquid, bulk ore, or container, load and unload tremendous amounts of cargo quickly (the Iranian tanker in the news today carries 2.1 million barrels of oil, a $115 million cargo, which it can load or unload in a matter of hours). In a world where ships cannot simply sail direct routes to destinations, must detect and evade, or defend against assaults, or risk capture or loss, transport logistics will become vastly more complex, and costs far greater. The SS Great Eastern, the first large steamship, launched in 1859, still carried cannon on her decks: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Deck_of_the_%27Great_Eastern%27.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Deck_of_the_%27Great_Ea...