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I could bet a ton that most people will make excuses as to why the papers failed. There's something within us that wants to hit the stock market lottery. I tru

I could bet a ton that most people will make excuses as to why the papers failed. There's something within us that wants to hit the stock market lottery. I truly believe that there are streeks to profits in the stock market in the same way you will find streeks in any set of random numbers but they are impossible to find in a consistent manner. The road to wealth for most in the stock market is time and investing in a basket of good stocks. Whoever thinks that they have found a system to profits in the stock market. Test and retest your method a few times. It's unlikely you have a winning system.

tomp 7y ago
No, there are trading strategies that do work, over multiple years, and can then be adjusted and refined to work even longer. But obviously nobody is going to publish such strategies. You’re looking at a negative selection of papers.
- WheelsAtLarge 7y ago
  Describe one. I know if there are any current ones no one will talk about them. But have there been any consistent ones in the last 100 years? I'm sure someone would have at least written about them in their memoirs.
  - batterseapower 7y ago
    https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Century-of-Evidence-on-Trend-Following-Investing https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Cent...
  - tomp 7y ago
    I don’t know any good ones... AFAIK value, size signals, merger arbitrage, and other kinds of predictionsused to work well in context of statistical arbitrage... but yeah their existence is evidenced by successful companies / hedge funds (Renaissance, Citadel, Jump, Two Sigma, ...)
bjourne 7y ago
But there is a foolproof way of profiting from the stock market. Insider trading! I find it fascinating that people do not believe it occurs at a grand scale given the low risks and huge rewards. Exactly like how people believe athletes don't use steroids so they get all upset when every once in a while one is caught. :)
- saalweachter 7y ago
  One of my favorite not-quite-conspiracy-theories is that all of quants and crazy trading algorithms are just to provide cover for the insider trading.
- WheelsAtLarge 7y ago
  The first hedge fund Jones & Co. that launched 1949 hired business writers that would consistently "find" profitable trades. The logic was that Jones & Co. assumed that they had a line to insider information. Yup, you can make a consistent buck if you know the right people with the right info. That system will always work.

tomp 7y ago

No, there are trading strategies that do work, over multiple years, and can then be adjusted and refined to work even longer. But obviously nobody is going to publish such strategies. You’re looking at a negative selection of papers.

WheelsAtLarge 7y ago
Describe one. I know if there are any current ones no one will talk about them. But have there been any consistent ones in the last 100 years? I'm sure someone would have at least written about them in their memoirs.
- batterseapower 7y ago
  https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Century-of-Evidence-on-Trend-Following-Investing https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Cent...
- tomp 7y ago
  I don’t know any good ones... AFAIK value, size signals, merger arbitrage, and other kinds of predictionsused to work well in context of statistical arbitrage... but yeah their existence is evidenced by successful companies / hedge funds (Renaissance, Citadel, Jump, Two Sigma, ...)

bjourne 7y ago

But there is a foolproof way of profiting from the stock market. Insider trading! I find it fascinating that people do not believe it occurs at a grand scale given the low risks and huge rewards. Exactly like how people believe athletes don't use steroids so they get all upset when every once in a while one is caught. :)

saalweachter 7y ago
One of my favorite not-quite-conspiracy-theories is that all of quants and crazy trading algorithms are just to provide cover for the insider trading.
WheelsAtLarge 7y ago
The first hedge fund Jones & Co. that launched 1949 hired business writers that would consistently "find" profitable trades. The logic was that Jones & Co. assumed that they had a line to insider information. Yup, you can make a consistent buck if you know the right people with the right info. That system will always work.