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The yield curve inverted over 2 years before the 2008 recession [1], that's not the most timely indicator. [1] https://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/in

• sleepysysadmin 7y ago
  There has been others which were even more delayed than that. To understand what's going on is that the bond market inversion is because fallible people who are analyzing the situation and putting their money into bonds. They are buying 10 year bonds when 3 month bonds would be cheaper. That's a very irrational thing to do; unless you're predicting a crash; and when the rates invert it also means there's a very large amount of $ going into those bonds. Not to mention that when this happens it makes headlines and causes the politicians to scramble and try to fix the problem. This is where the delay comes in; the politicians spend $ to cover up the hole in the economy delaying the recession. This is actually a huge problem, Canada is around 170% debt to disposable income. If you delay the recession the only thing that happens is that it goes to 180%+ making the problem that much worse.