13 ms·

> The experience of sitting in a $70k+ Tesla is below that of a Honda Civic. As someone who has owned two Honda Civics and now owns a Model 3 you are laughably

by danhak 7y ago

> The experience of sitting in a $70k+ Tesla is below that of a Honda Civic. As someone who has owned two Honda Civics and now owns a Model 3 you are laughably off the mark here. > Tesla is pretty much done the day BMW and MB and Audi get the hang of the electric thing. "Netflix is pretty much done the day Blockbuster gets the hang of the online thing." "Apple is pretty much done the day Nokia gets the hang of the smartphone thing." It's astounding to me how a community of technologists and entrepreneurs still can't grasp the innovator's dilemma at play here. Tesla's lead is accelerating every year as a new Tesla killer has been perpetually "around the corner." Cadillac ELR, BMW i3, Chevy Bolt, Chevy Volt, Audi E-Tron, Jaguar I-Pace were all supposed to eat Tesla's lunch. Just look at the sales numbers. Not even close.

SimbaOnSteroids 7y ago
Plus their infrastructure lead is literally gargantuan. Charging stations are everywhere, without them you might as well not have roads they can drive on.
- Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
  I must be missing something because I'm not sure why this matters when Tesla has made their patents open. Can't someone else make a car that can use a Tesla supercharger? Why wouldn't another manufacturer make their cars compatible with Tesla's charging network, then sell that as a massive feature?
  - gergles 7y ago
    Tesla's network is not open-access, there is authentication involved so that even if you implement the physical standard you can't use their chargers without their consent.
  - zaroth 7y ago
    Tesla has indeed offered to share the Supercharger network, with anyone who is also willing to split the cost. You cannot just plug in and get charge with the right adaptor. You need to be authorized by the billing software to get juice. This happens automatically when you plug in a Tesla to the charger.
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      > Tesla has indeed offered to share the Supercharger network Tesla should standardize on CCS like everyone else has and enter into billing agreements with the other charging networks. That's what Electrify America and ChargePoint have done: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electrify-america-chargepoint-roaming-partnership/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electrify-america-chargep...
    - Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
      I figured there'd be a billing issue to sort out, and that Tesla might even charge a non-Tesla a little more to use their chargers, and maybe other manufacturers really don't like the idea of giving their competition money, but...c'mon. Certainly you could sell a lot more cars if you advertised being able to use Tesla's network, even if you had to pay a small premium to use it.
      - zaroth 7y ago
        I believe the offer is any car maker who wants to use it has to pay for half of the whole infrastructure / build out cost for the network. No way someone can come in and use the network and just pay the cost of electricity, or even a premium on the electricity. Tesla is going to want someone to share the cost of building it out. Of course since they sell way more EVs by quantity, it would benefit them more than anyone who might come and offer to split the cost. Which is why no one will take them up on it until they can see a way to selling 6 digit quantities of EVs.
- ddoolin 7y ago
  Yeah...I will not miss their infrastructure at all. If you live in a moderately-populated area (anywhere on the west coast), the stations have been laughable. They're overcrowded and many stalls are VERY OFTEN broken. I may wait up to 30 minutes in line and sometimes up to a quarter of the stalls are either outright broken or trickle-charge. Not to mention the complete lack of a proper queue system leading to disagreements every single time about who was there first, etc. If you own a home, this is probably a non-issue. For the rest of us (which is most of us, at least in California), good luck. FWIW, when I first purchased I was one Tesla of a handful in the entire city (east coast). Moving here, I am one in a handful in every square mile. I just ditched my Model S after 3 years and I feel great about it. I absolutely won't miss the charging, but I also won't miss the laughably barebones interior, litany of software bugs, or unjustifiably high price tag, either. The driving however, I absolutely will miss, but there's much more to the experience than that with a fully-electric.
  - SimbaOnSteroids 7y ago
    Their infrastructure may be laughable when compared to the experience that we've grown accustomed to as people raised with gas stations everywhere. However it _does_actually_exist_. Which isn't exactly something you can say for the offerings of say Nissan or Chevy. I'd also imagine that if your experience with their charging network was that frustrating it makes you an atypical user; as I can only assume the bulk of people drive their commute everyday, and that's about it, maybe pick up the kids, maybe run a few errands, but not running 200+ miles per day. Meaning you get to charge at night. I'm not surprised about the bugs, the bugs that are in my parents' Priuses (Prii?) are obnoxious to say the least, and Teslas software is many times more complicated. When you say barebones you mean like lack of cup holders or arm rests, etc? Or just the lack of _stuff_, in much the same way a room painted white feels empty?
rootusrootus 7y ago
It may be off the mark to compare to a Civic, but I've spent some quality time in a Model 3, and the only folks who think it compares favorably to a BMW/Merc/Audi are diehard fans. Is there a single competitor to the Model 3 on the market yet? They should be doing really good with the lack of competition.
- jakubp 7y ago
  If Model 3 doesn't have a competitor yet, why is anyone worrying about the potential of the competitor to win through fit and finish? When that competitor comes, what is to stop Tesla from releasing Model 3 Mk II with better design??!?!!?!
  - jjeaff 7y ago
    Why would it have a competitor from any big makers? To them it's still just a niche market.
- giarc 7y ago
  What cars are they comparing? BMW has i3 and i8, Mercedes doesn't have an electric car yet and Audi has e-tron. The only car you could say is in the same category is the i3 and those are totally different cars.
  - rconti 7y ago
    The i3 is being discontinued in favor of a CUV thing in 2022: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114966_todays-bmw-i3-to-evolve-into-lower-tech-higher-volume-2022-bmw-ix1-suv-report https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114966_todays-bmw-i3-t... Mercedes is debuting Real Soon Like Now (I think it's out in Europe as of.. the past few days?) the EQC electric GLC-looking SUV thing. Jag has the i-Pace, which is still uncommon here in the bay area, though I saw quite a few in Norway. The new Audi e-tron was all over Norway, and I just saw my first 3-4 here in the Bay Area this week. (but they had permanent CA license plates so they must have been out for at least a month or so).
ummonk 7y ago
Netflix IS pretty much done, it is just Disney and Amazon that will do it, not Blockbuster.
- rconti 7y ago
  Their market cap is down to ~US$132B from a high over US$150B, but the market is definitely not calling them done.
  - ummonk 7y ago
    Sure, but that is about half of Disney’s market cap.
    - jjeaff 7y ago
      And there is still a lot of Disney owned content on Netflix that will presumably dry up soon. I'm sure the market is uncertain how that will affect viewership. Could hurt them more or less than expected.
nawitus 7y ago
I believe Nissan Leaf is the still the most sold electric car, more than Tesla Model 3. The Model 3 is catching up though.
- Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
  The Leaf came out in 2010, and its sales in the USA has been declining since 2014. Model 3 didn't start deliveries until Q3 2017, but didn't really take off until Q2 2018.
- luckydata 7y ago
  Catching up very, very quickly. https://www.torquenews.com/7893/why-tesla-model-3-outselling-all-major-rivals-combined-looks-beginning-ev-monopoly https://www.torquenews.com/7893/why-tesla-model-3-outselling...
  - zaroth 7y ago
    In the US in Q2 the Leaf sold 3,323 units compared to Tesla Model 3’s 47,000 units. Over all time Model 3 is at ~225,000 units to Leaf’s ~400,000. So napkin math says Tesla will catch up by this time next year. I think with production acceleration due to the new China plant, it will be sooner though.
clouddrover 7y ago
> Tesla's lead is accelerating every year as a new Tesla killer has been perpetually "around the corner." There won't be a single Tesla killer. It'll be more like a death from a thousand cuts. Tesla's lead won't last long. Tesla's problem now is that other car companies will release multiple EV models across multiple brands every year from now on. Volkswagen is building VW, Audi, SEAT, Skoda, and Porsche EVs (and their very high end brands will have EVs eventually). Hyundai has a number of nice EVs, Mercedes EVs are rolling out, Ford EVs are on the way, the Honda e is a nice car (although not enough range). Even Toyota has moved up their battery electric timetable, and if Toyota's solid-state battery work pans out they may even end up bringing the best EVs to market.
CPLX 7y ago
I mean Netflix and Apple both face extremely fierce competition, just not from those actual companies you mentioned. Replace Nokia with Samsung and Blockbuster with Amazon and Comcast (Hulu) and you'd make a little more sense. Making cars efficiently is hard and Tesla is great at powertrain and batteries, two important but specific parts of the process, and awful at the rest. The German companies are incredible at everything else, including reliability and efficiency. Sure maybe they'll just never be able to catch up in making (or sourcing) batteries and electric motors. Wouldn't bet on it though.

by danhak 7y ago

SimbaOnSteroids 7y ago

Plus their infrastructure lead is literally gargantuan. Charging stations are everywhere, without them you might as well not have roads they can drive on.

Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
I must be missing something because I'm not sure why this matters when Tesla has made their patents open. Can't someone else make a car that can use a Tesla supercharger? Why wouldn't another manufacturer make their cars compatible with Tesla's charging network, then sell that as a massive feature?
- gergles 7y ago
  Tesla's network is not open-access, there is authentication involved so that even if you implement the physical standard you can't use their chargers without their consent.
- zaroth 7y ago
  Tesla has indeed offered to share the Supercharger network, with anyone who is also willing to split the cost. You cannot just plug in and get charge with the right adaptor. You need to be authorized by the billing software to get juice. This happens automatically when you plug in a Tesla to the charger.
  - clouddrover 7y ago
    > Tesla has indeed offered to share the Supercharger network Tesla should standardize on CCS like everyone else has and enter into billing agreements with the other charging networks. That's what Electrify America and ChargePoint have done: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electrify-america-chargepoint-roaming-partnership/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electrify-america-chargep...
  - Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
    I figured there'd be a billing issue to sort out, and that Tesla might even charge a non-Tesla a little more to use their chargers, and maybe other manufacturers really don't like the idea of giving their competition money, but...c'mon. Certainly you could sell a lot more cars if you advertised being able to use Tesla's network, even if you had to pay a small premium to use it.
    - zaroth 7y ago
      I believe the offer is any car maker who wants to use it has to pay for half of the whole infrastructure / build out cost for the network. No way someone can come in and use the network and just pay the cost of electricity, or even a premium on the electricity. Tesla is going to want someone to share the cost of building it out. Of course since they sell way more EVs by quantity, it would benefit them more than anyone who might come and offer to split the cost. Which is why no one will take them up on it until they can see a way to selling 6 digit quantities of EVs.
ddoolin 7y ago
Yeah...I will not miss their infrastructure at all. If you live in a moderately-populated area (anywhere on the west coast), the stations have been laughable. They're overcrowded and many stalls are VERY OFTEN broken. I may wait up to 30 minutes in line and sometimes up to a quarter of the stalls are either outright broken or trickle-charge. Not to mention the complete lack of a proper queue system leading to disagreements every single time about who was there first, etc. If you own a home, this is probably a non-issue. For the rest of us (which is most of us, at least in California), good luck. FWIW, when I first purchased I was one Tesla of a handful in the entire city (east coast). Moving here, I am one in a handful in every square mile. I just ditched my Model S after 3 years and I feel great about it. I absolutely won't miss the charging, but I also won't miss the laughably barebones interior, litany of software bugs, or unjustifiably high price tag, either. The driving however, I absolutely will miss, but there's much more to the experience than that with a fully-electric.
- SimbaOnSteroids 7y ago
  Their infrastructure may be laughable when compared to the experience that we've grown accustomed to as people raised with gas stations everywhere. However it _does_actually_exist_. Which isn't exactly something you can say for the offerings of say Nissan or Chevy. I'd also imagine that if your experience with their charging network was that frustrating it makes you an atypical user; as I can only assume the bulk of people drive their commute everyday, and that's about it, maybe pick up the kids, maybe run a few errands, but not running 200+ miles per day. Meaning you get to charge at night. I'm not surprised about the bugs, the bugs that are in my parents' Priuses (Prii?) are obnoxious to say the least, and Teslas software is many times more complicated. When you say barebones you mean like lack of cup holders or arm rests, etc? Or just the lack of _stuff_, in much the same way a room painted white feels empty?

rootusrootus 7y ago

It may be off the mark to compare to a Civic, but I've spent some quality time in a Model 3, and the only folks who think it compares favorably to a BMW/Merc/Audi are diehard fans. Is there a single competitor to the Model 3 on the market yet? They should be doing really good with the lack of competition.

jakubp 7y ago
If Model 3 doesn't have a competitor yet, why is anyone worrying about the potential of the competitor to win through fit and finish? When that competitor comes, what is to stop Tesla from releasing Model 3 Mk II with better design??!?!!?!
- jjeaff 7y ago
  Why would it have a competitor from any big makers? To them it's still just a niche market.
giarc 7y ago
What cars are they comparing? BMW has i3 and i8, Mercedes doesn't have an electric car yet and Audi has e-tron. The only car you could say is in the same category is the i3 and those are totally different cars.
- rconti 7y ago
  The i3 is being discontinued in favor of a CUV thing in 2022: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114966_todays-bmw-i3-to-evolve-into-lower-tech-higher-volume-2022-bmw-ix1-suv-report https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114966_todays-bmw-i3-t... Mercedes is debuting Real Soon Like Now (I think it's out in Europe as of.. the past few days?) the EQC electric GLC-looking SUV thing. Jag has the i-Pace, which is still uncommon here in the bay area, though I saw quite a few in Norway. The new Audi e-tron was all over Norway, and I just saw my first 3-4 here in the Bay Area this week. (but they had permanent CA license plates so they must have been out for at least a month or so).

ummonk 7y ago

Netflix IS pretty much done, it is just Disney and Amazon that will do it, not Blockbuster.

rconti 7y ago
Their market cap is down to ~US$132B from a high over US$150B, but the market is definitely not calling them done.
- ummonk 7y ago
  Sure, but that is about half of Disney’s market cap.
  - jjeaff 7y ago
    And there is still a lot of Disney owned content on Netflix that will presumably dry up soon. I'm sure the market is uncertain how that will affect viewership. Could hurt them more or less than expected.

nawitus 7y ago

I believe Nissan Leaf is the still the most sold electric car, more than Tesla Model 3. The Model 3 is catching up though.

Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
The Leaf came out in 2010, and its sales in the USA has been declining since 2014. Model 3 didn't start deliveries until Q3 2017, but didn't really take off until Q2 2018.
luckydata 7y ago
Catching up very, very quickly. https://www.torquenews.com/7893/why-tesla-model-3-outselling-all-major-rivals-combined-looks-beginning-ev-monopoly https://www.torquenews.com/7893/why-tesla-model-3-outselling...
- zaroth 7y ago
  In the US in Q2 the Leaf sold 3,323 units compared to Tesla Model 3’s 47,000 units. Over all time Model 3 is at ~225,000 units to Leaf’s ~400,000. So napkin math says Tesla will catch up by this time next year. I think with production acceleration due to the new China plant, it will be sooner though.

clouddrover 7y ago

> Tesla's lead is accelerating every year as a new Tesla killer has been perpetually "around the corner." There won't be a single Tesla killer. It'll be more like a death from a thousand cuts. Tesla's lead won't last long. Tesla's problem now is that other car companies will release multiple EV models across multiple brands every year from now on. Volkswagen is building VW, Audi, SEAT, Skoda, and Porsche EVs (and their very high end brands will have EVs eventually). Hyundai has a number of nice EVs, Mercedes EVs are rolling out, Ford EVs are on the way, the Honda e is a nice car (although not enough range). Even Toyota has moved up their battery electric timetable, and if Toyota's solid-state battery work pans out they may even end up bringing the best EVs to market.

CPLX 7y ago

I mean Netflix and Apple both face extremely fierce competition, just not from those actual companies you mentioned. Replace Nokia with Samsung and Blockbuster with Amazon and Comcast (Hulu) and you'd make a little more sense. Making cars efficiently is hard and Tesla is great at powertrain and batteries, two important but specific parts of the process, and awful at the rest. The German companies are incredible at everything else, including reliability and efficiency. Sure maybe they'll just never be able to catch up in making (or sourcing) batteries and electric motors. Wouldn't bet on it though.