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This is a silly analysis because the conflict is fundamental. China wants to integrate Hong Kong. The protestors want independence. Neither side really wants an

This is a silly analysis because the conflict is fundamental. China wants to integrate Hong Kong. The protestors want independence. Neither side really wants an indefinite half-hearted autonomy, although the protestors are pushing to preserve it for as long as possible. Your very reaction shows where your sympathies lie, which is very laudable, but are you willing to engage in 'conflict resolution' over your own core values, e.g. to give up some amount of democracy or independence? If not, then talk is simply window dressing, or an opportunity to spread your message. Both sides here realize there is no true basis for negotiating, hence why they don't. In fact, negotiation at all by Beijing would be a concession: it would legitimize the protests and give protestors a formal seat at the table. You may disagree with that starting point, but let's admit that negotiations themselves are not a neutral act devoid of consequence, hence why actual diplomats spend enormous amounts of time discussing the agenda to be discussed in formal settings: what gets talked about and by whom matters.

idlewords 7y ago
The protesters are not calling for independence. They have five specific demands, which boil down to "uphold the law as written", including the right (guaranteed in the Basic Law) to elect their government.
- loyukfai 7y ago
  And the five demands are not treated equally among the people: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1384380751713433&id=100004245636237&ref=bookmarks https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1384380751713433... Some of the core protesters (I don't have any objective figure) consider them a take it or leave it deal though.
- smallnamespace 7y ago
  Right, because they are smart about what sells, both to the international community and to China. But let's not kid ourselves that wants === demands
  - roboys 7y ago
    > They are smart about what sells Alternatively, they are being influenced by people who have ulterior motives. History says, if you get in a trade war with the US and we don't end up funding your opposition, an error has probably occurred or you are not very important.
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  It seems that the Basic Law is more subtle than that (Article 45): " The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be selected by election or through consultations held locally and be appointed by the Central People's Government. The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures." Regarding "independence", when some protesters attack symbols of the Chinese state (inc. flag) and fly foreign flags they are sending a muddled message...
  - idlewords 7y ago
    By definition, at a mass protest you're going to get all kinds of people. The five demands represent a broad consensus across a very large slice of Hong Kong society. You can get a lot of attention bringing a foreign flag to a protest, but as Hong Kongers know it is a very small contingent of people who do it. One of them is a well-known, tiny, sweet old lady who got attacked by police last weekend.
    - mytailorisrich 7y ago
      They've effectively won on the extradition bill, which realistically is the most they could get. Violence, disruption, and foreign flags might be from a minority but they have destroyed any sympathy the mainland opinion may have had towards the movement (and there was sympathy) and I think that they actually help the hardliners in Beijing.
      - Quiark 7y ago
        The bill was not withdrawn. It is likely that some of the violence was from undercover cops. But yes, optics matter, that's why they apologised after the airport.
        7y ago
- concert-gilled 7y ago
  Specific demands which amount to independence rather than integration.
  - my_username_is_ 7y ago
    No, there is an important distinction between independence and autonomy. A majority of the protesters support "one country, two system", they just want the two systems to be preserved.
    - concert-gilled 7y ago
      They want autonomy which is functionally equivalent to independence.
      - crusty 7y ago
        Not really. And they are asking for the terms of an agreement made in 1997 to actually be honored. It's not like they are coming out of nowhere with original demands here. The demands boil down to something akin to: stop trying to fuck us over on the promises you made to us and the world!
  - gwathk 7y ago
    It has nothing to do independence or not, but demanding CCP to keep its promises to Hong Kong people and using the usual legal framework now in Hong Kong to bring justice and peace back to the society
crusty 7y ago
This is just plainly inaccurate. There is a spectrum of desired outcome among protesters, from a China that simply better honors the One Country, Two Systems mantra, to outright Independence, and I'd say that most protesters align with the former, but include true free and fair elections, as opposed to the CCP's version in which they have pick the handful of candidates from which Hong Kongers can freely and fairly choose. Many of those that advocate for Independence seem to be called offs from that camp, who have lost all hope that Beijing might actually honor its agreement. The problem here is that the CCP has created its own interpretation of vocabulary that is otherwise universally accepted and Britain (and the US) failed to account for that and put in place the protections that would have forestalled such aggressive dismantling of Hong Kong's civic framework pre-handover.
empath75 7y ago
In fact the first chapter of From Dictatorship To Democracy warns against negotiations too early in the process. You have to be in position of power first, then negotiate.

idlewords 7y ago

The protesters are not calling for independence. They have five specific demands, which boil down to "uphold the law as written", including the right (guaranteed in the Basic Law) to elect their government.

loyukfai 7y ago
And the five demands are not treated equally among the people: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1384380751713433&id=100004245636237&ref=bookmarks https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1384380751713433... Some of the core protesters (I don't have any objective figure) consider them a take it or leave it deal though.
smallnamespace 7y ago
Right, because they are smart about what sells, both to the international community and to China. But let's not kid ourselves that wants === demands
- roboys 7y ago
  > They are smart about what sells Alternatively, they are being influenced by people who have ulterior motives. History says, if you get in a trade war with the US and we don't end up funding your opposition, an error has probably occurred or you are not very important.
mytailorisrich 7y ago
It seems that the Basic Law is more subtle than that (Article 45): " The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be selected by election or through consultations held locally and be appointed by the Central People's Government. The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures." Regarding "independence", when some protesters attack symbols of the Chinese state (inc. flag) and fly foreign flags they are sending a muddled message...
- idlewords 7y ago
  By definition, at a mass protest you're going to get all kinds of people. The five demands represent a broad consensus across a very large slice of Hong Kong society. You can get a lot of attention bringing a foreign flag to a protest, but as Hong Kongers know it is a very small contingent of people who do it. One of them is a well-known, tiny, sweet old lady who got attacked by police last weekend.
  - mytailorisrich 7y ago
    They've effectively won on the extradition bill, which realistically is the most they could get. Violence, disruption, and foreign flags might be from a minority but they have destroyed any sympathy the mainland opinion may have had towards the movement (and there was sympathy) and I think that they actually help the hardliners in Beijing.
    - Quiark 7y ago
      The bill was not withdrawn. It is likely that some of the violence was from undercover cops. But yes, optics matter, that's why they apologised after the airport.
      - 7y ago
concert-gilled 7y ago
Specific demands which amount to independence rather than integration.
- my_username_is_ 7y ago
  No, there is an important distinction between independence and autonomy. A majority of the protesters support "one country, two system", they just want the two systems to be preserved.
  - concert-gilled 7y ago
    They want autonomy which is functionally equivalent to independence.
    - crusty 7y ago
      Not really. And they are asking for the terms of an agreement made in 1997 to actually be honored. It's not like they are coming out of nowhere with original demands here. The demands boil down to something akin to: stop trying to fuck us over on the promises you made to us and the world!
- gwathk 7y ago
  It has nothing to do independence or not, but demanding CCP to keep its promises to Hong Kong people and using the usual legal framework now in Hong Kong to bring justice and peace back to the society

crusty 7y ago

This is just plainly inaccurate. There is a spectrum of desired outcome among protesters, from a China that simply better honors the One Country, Two Systems mantra, to outright Independence, and I'd say that most protesters align with the former, but include true free and fair elections, as opposed to the CCP's version in which they have pick the handful of candidates from which Hong Kongers can freely and fairly choose. Many of those that advocate for Independence seem to be called offs from that camp, who have lost all hope that Beijing might actually honor its agreement. The problem here is that the CCP has created its own interpretation of vocabulary that is otherwise universally accepted and Britain (and the US) failed to account for that and put in place the protections that would have forestalled such aggressive dismantling of Hong Kong's civic framework pre-handover.

empath75 7y ago

In fact the first chapter of From Dictatorship To Democracy warns against negotiations too early in the process. You have to be in position of power first, then negotiate.