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"Electric cars give us a sense that we can have change without having to change at all. They are a talisman of false hope." On a tangent issue: it going to get

"Electric cars give us a sense that we can have change without having to change at all. They are a talisman of false hope." On a tangent issue: it going to get even worse. The automotive industry predicts total annual miles driven to go up by 300% when autonomous driving comes through.

stuaxo 7y ago
As an asthmatic I'm looking forward to a drastic reduction in the pollution in our cities. We still need to move to car free cities at the same time though.
- PeterStuer 7y ago
  I agree with you that the very idea that it is somehow acceptable to have an 'exhaust' on a car that just belches out toxins is just as crazy as dumping your nightpot out the top floor window into the middle of the street. There was also a time in which that was deemed 'normal'. That said, a very large part of small particle dust produced by cars comes from wear, especially brakes, tires, road surface and crushed stuff by the weight of the car driving over. If there is a significant uptick in traffic, electric will be better than the equivalent traffic if it were all diesel, but the aggregate amount of micro dust might still go up compared to today's volume.
  - mcot2 7y ago
    Again, technology is not static. There are lots of folks working on the brake dust and tire wear issue. You should be happy to know that regenerative breaking on BEVs results in a lot less brake dust, although currently more tire wear due to more initial torque.
mcot2 7y ago
Miles driven should go up but with far fewer vehicles, since with autonomy cars can operate almost 24/7. But point taken, we will need those autonomous cars to be BEV and use renewable power.
- PeterStuer 7y ago
  I have not seen automotive industry projections that predict fewer vehicles.
  - ecpottinger 7y ago
    Of-course not - what do you expect them to say to their shareholders? But in all the other NON-automotive industry sources the idea of a car that drives itself and acts as a taxi suggests 4-10 times less cars needed.
    - PeterStuer 7y ago
      Why is that? Taxis have always existed, and rationally are cheaper than owning a car for some. Yet most people own private cars, and when yours in the future comes with a free private driver, the possibilities for having a decent office or entertainment center in there when freed from the driving task will only make them more attractive to own. Taxis mostly seem to displace other forms of public transport. https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2019/01/uber-lyft-ride-hailing-impact-public-transit-ridership/581062/ https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2019/01/uber-lyft-rid...
pjc50 7y ago
How? The roads are at capacity in many places. We're not going to build 300% more road area to put cars on.
- PeterStuer 7y ago
  Potential road capacity is far higher than is currently achieved by human drivers. Rational coordination and less accidents are more than feasible. Platooning is estimated to have the potential to increase per lane capacity by 500%.

stuaxo 7y ago

As an asthmatic I'm looking forward to a drastic reduction in the pollution in our cities. We still need to move to car free cities at the same time though.

PeterStuer 7y ago
I agree with you that the very idea that it is somehow acceptable to have an 'exhaust' on a car that just belches out toxins is just as crazy as dumping your nightpot out the top floor window into the middle of the street. There was also a time in which that was deemed 'normal'. That said, a very large part of small particle dust produced by cars comes from wear, especially brakes, tires, road surface and crushed stuff by the weight of the car driving over. If there is a significant uptick in traffic, electric will be better than the equivalent traffic if it were all diesel, but the aggregate amount of micro dust might still go up compared to today's volume.
- mcot2 7y ago
  Again, technology is not static. There are lots of folks working on the brake dust and tire wear issue. You should be happy to know that regenerative breaking on BEVs results in a lot less brake dust, although currently more tire wear due to more initial torque.

mcot2 7y ago

Miles driven should go up but with far fewer vehicles, since with autonomy cars can operate almost 24/7. But point taken, we will need those autonomous cars to be BEV and use renewable power.

PeterStuer 7y ago
I have not seen automotive industry projections that predict fewer vehicles.
- ecpottinger 7y ago
  Of-course not - what do you expect them to say to their shareholders? But in all the other NON-automotive industry sources the idea of a car that drives itself and acts as a taxi suggests 4-10 times less cars needed.
  - PeterStuer 7y ago
    Why is that? Taxis have always existed, and rationally are cheaper than owning a car for some. Yet most people own private cars, and when yours in the future comes with a free private driver, the possibilities for having a decent office or entertainment center in there when freed from the driving task will only make them more attractive to own. Taxis mostly seem to displace other forms of public transport. https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2019/01/uber-lyft-ride-hailing-impact-public-transit-ridership/581062/ https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2019/01/uber-lyft-rid...

pjc50 7y ago

How? The roads are at capacity in many places. We're not going to build 300% more road area to put cars on.

PeterStuer 7y ago
Potential road capacity is far higher than is currently achieved by human drivers. Rational coordination and less accidents are more than feasible. Platooning is estimated to have the potential to increase per lane capacity by 500%.