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How does survivorship bias apply here? He’s practically laying out a tautology: if you are willing to sacrifice everything for a goal, you’ll beat out everyone

How does survivorship bias apply here? He’s practically laying out a tautology: if you are willing to sacrifice everything for a goal, you’ll beat out everyone else purely due to attrition. You’re saying that only seems true because people who succeed repeat it? I feel like survivorship bias is more about obscure tricks that happen to work well for a random group of people who happened to succeed. No?

dclowd9901 7y ago
> How does survivorship bias apply here? Because he got lucky. No, sacrificing everything for the goal does not always get you the goal. There's 1,000 Bukowskis out there, many better, and we'll never hear of them. Sometimes you waste it all, and then you're supposed to look back and say, "Well, at least I gave it my all, and I just had bad luck." Yeah, that's really fucking comforting.
- badpun 7y ago
  > Sometimes you waste it all, and then you're supposed to look back and say, "Well, at least I gave it my all, and I just had bad luck." Yeah, that's really fucking comforting. It's about intrinsic vs extrinsic rewards. For him, writing poetry was a reward in itself, and he didn't see himself joining the standard nine-to-five society anyway. So, even if he had failed after 40 years of writing during evenings and weekends, he wouldn't have any regrets. Of course, if someone does say startups just to get rich, and hates every minute of it, then it, if the spoils never materialize in the end, it will lead to bitterness.
- erikpukinskis 7y ago
  > There's 1,000 Bukowskis out there, many better What does being better have to do with it? Are you arguing against the idea that the best people always succeed? I don’t think I said that.
- alex504 7y ago
  There are not 1000s of Bukowskis out there in my experience. Some artists are undeniable and they don't have problems becoming famous. For example I've seen a lot of really good musicians in crappy venues. I've also seen musicians of the same caliber who are famous. But I've never seen a great musician in a crappy venue. And when I see a world class musician it is undeniable that they are great. In my experience there are 1000s of writers not quite as good as Bukowski and some of them will make it but very few. When a truly great writer comes along I believe the hard part is actually writing the great literature and not finding a publisher.
smrq 7y ago
But that's nonsense. Even if I gave up everything today to practice basketball every waking moment for the rest of my life, I'm not going to be an NBA star. Some dreams simply can't come true for some people and can for others.
- rumanator 7y ago
  > Some dreams simply can't come true for some people and can for others. This. The text reads like a lottery winner praising the virtues of spending all their savings on lottery tickets just because he got lucky. Will and determination alone are not relevant if the main factor -- opportunity -- is out of our control and might never materialize.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- erikpukinskis 7y ago
  Yes of course you need to start with a goal that will still be physically possible after 20 years of trying. I’m not claiming that magic exists, that’s a straw man.
tempguy9999 7y ago
> How does survivorship bias apply here? Because he is evidently a survivor. I guess we need more info on other who tried the same and succeeded or failed to really decide, but nonetheless it's one person reporting on their experience. It has all the hallmarks of it. > if you are willing to sacrifice everything for a goal, you’ll beat out everyone else purely due to attrition. Big assumption that persistence assures success. It likely is a significant factor but that does not seem to be what you are saying. I'll put it another way - I don't accept it is a tautology.
codeulike 7y ago
I know people who spent bitter decades 'never giving up: to try and make it in the music industry. Ultimately they were angry with the world for not giving them what they wanted. They might as well have played the lottery instead.

dclowd9901 7y ago

> How does survivorship bias apply here? Because he got lucky. No, sacrificing everything for the goal does not always get you the goal. There's 1,000 Bukowskis out there, many better, and we'll never hear of them. Sometimes you waste it all, and then you're supposed to look back and say, "Well, at least I gave it my all, and I just had bad luck." Yeah, that's really fucking comforting.

badpun 7y ago
> Sometimes you waste it all, and then you're supposed to look back and say, "Well, at least I gave it my all, and I just had bad luck." Yeah, that's really fucking comforting. It's about intrinsic vs extrinsic rewards. For him, writing poetry was a reward in itself, and he didn't see himself joining the standard nine-to-five society anyway. So, even if he had failed after 40 years of writing during evenings and weekends, he wouldn't have any regrets. Of course, if someone does say startups just to get rich, and hates every minute of it, then it, if the spoils never materialize in the end, it will lead to bitterness.
erikpukinskis 7y ago
> There's 1,000 Bukowskis out there, many better What does being better have to do with it? Are you arguing against the idea that the best people always succeed? I don’t think I said that.
alex504 7y ago
There are not 1000s of Bukowskis out there in my experience. Some artists are undeniable and they don't have problems becoming famous. For example I've seen a lot of really good musicians in crappy venues. I've also seen musicians of the same caliber who are famous. But I've never seen a great musician in a crappy venue. And when I see a world class musician it is undeniable that they are great. In my experience there are 1000s of writers not quite as good as Bukowski and some of them will make it but very few. When a truly great writer comes along I believe the hard part is actually writing the great literature and not finding a publisher.

smrq 7y ago

But that's nonsense. Even if I gave up everything today to practice basketball every waking moment for the rest of my life, I'm not going to be an NBA star. Some dreams simply can't come true for some people and can for others.

rumanator 7y ago
> Some dreams simply can't come true for some people and can for others. This. The text reads like a lottery winner praising the virtues of spending all their savings on lottery tickets just because he got lucky. Will and determination alone are not relevant if the main factor -- opportunity -- is out of our control and might never materialize.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
erikpukinskis 7y ago
Yes of course you need to start with a goal that will still be physically possible after 20 years of trying. I’m not claiming that magic exists, that’s a straw man.

tempguy9999 7y ago

> How does survivorship bias apply here? Because he is evidently a survivor. I guess we need more info on other who tried the same and succeeded or failed to really decide, but nonetheless it's one person reporting on their experience. It has all the hallmarks of it. > if you are willing to sacrifice everything for a goal, you’ll beat out everyone else purely due to attrition. Big assumption that persistence assures success. It likely is a significant factor but that does not seem to be what you are saying. I'll put it another way - I don't accept it is a tautology.

codeulike 7y ago

I know people who spent bitter decades 'never giving up: to try and make it in the music industry. Ultimately they were angry with the world for not giving them what they wanted. They might as well have played the lottery instead.