4 ms·

Most of the developed world is already reproducing below replacement rate.

by avip 7y ago

kerkeslager 7y ago
Most of the world is not the developed world (population-wise), and is reproducing well above replacement rate. So, what's your point?
- avip 7y ago
  Most of the world is already on sub-replacement. The only worth mentioning exception is Africa.
  - kerkeslager 7y ago
    I really don't know where you're getting your information. Geographically, most of the world's nations still have a positive population growth rate, including some developed nations such as the US[1]. India may have a lower proportional growth rate than some African nations, but since its population is already very large, it contributes more to the overall world population growth than any country[2]--surely this is "worth mentioning"? [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rates https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rates [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#Growth_regions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...
    - avip 7y ago
      As always, I rely on OWID https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-UN?tab=chart&time=1950..2015&country=OWID_WRL+IND+USA+Africa https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-UN?tab... Go to interactive mode. India and USA are already on sub-replacement. China is way under. Africa is the main reason world’s population is still growing.
      - kerkeslager 7y ago
        Did you even read my post? OWID was one of the links I cited. I'm not sure how to go to interactive mode, but the chart you linked does not say that India and the USA are on sub-replacement. That's a graph of TFR, not population change, and it shows 2.35 children being born per woman in India as of 2015, so by itself the chart proves that India is increasing the world population. The rates are 1.87 for the US, which is sub-replacement, but the US also has increasing population due to immigration. Obviously that isn't a change to the world's population, but if you're counting immigration out of other countries in population change, you have to count immigration into the US. To quote Wikipedia: > From 2017 to 2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population increase: India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Uganda, and Indonesia, listed according to the expected size of their contribution to that projected population growth. 5 out of 9 of those countries are in Africa, but note that India is #1. Note that if you look into where they are getting their data, both OWID and Wikipedia are citing the UN DESA. Also note that a decline in population growth rate is not the same as a decline in population. Growth rates have been in decline worldwide since the 1950s, but are still positive, meaning population in those countries is still growing.
        avip 7y ago
        India's TFR is reported 2.2-2.3 for 2018. That is, for a developing country with high child mortality, the replacement rate.
        kerkeslager 7y ago
        How high is child mortality? 4.1% as of 2016[1]. Even using your low number (2.2) that you didn't cite, 2.2 * (1 - 0.041) = 2.109, still above replacement. Please at least try to look up the statistics and form your opinion based on them, rather than forming your opinion and making up claims about the statistics based on your opinion. Why don't I just make this really simple for you: India's population will grow by 1.10% annually from 2015-2020 according to UN estimates from 2017.[1] If that's not recent enough for you, India is projected to grow 1.08% in 2019.[2] So however you want to argue this, India's population is growing. As I said and cited before, its absolute (not proportional) growth is greater than any other country in the world.[3] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populatio... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/ https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-populat... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#Growth_regions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...

Most of the developed world is already reproducing below replacement rate.

by avip 7y ago

Most of the developed world is already reproducing below replacement rate.

Most of the world is not the developed world (population-wise), and is reproducing well above replacement rate. So, what's your point?

avip 7y ago
Most of the world is already on sub-replacement. The only worth mentioning exception is Africa.
- kerkeslager 7y ago
  I really don't know where you're getting your information. Geographically, most of the world's nations still have a positive population growth rate, including some developed nations such as the US[1]. India may have a lower proportional growth rate than some African nations, but since its population is already very large, it contributes more to the overall world population growth than any country[2]--surely this is "worth mentioning"? [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rates https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rates [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#Growth_regions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...
  - avip 7y ago
    As always, I rely on OWID https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-UN?tab=chart&time=1950..2015&country=OWID_WRL+IND+USA+Africa https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-UN?tab... Go to interactive mode. India and USA are already on sub-replacement. China is way under. Africa is the main reason world’s population is still growing.
    - kerkeslager 7y ago
      Did you even read my post? OWID was one of the links I cited. I'm not sure how to go to interactive mode, but the chart you linked does not say that India and the USA are on sub-replacement. That's a graph of TFR, not population change, and it shows 2.35 children being born per woman in India as of 2015, so by itself the chart proves that India is increasing the world population. The rates are 1.87 for the US, which is sub-replacement, but the US also has increasing population due to immigration. Obviously that isn't a change to the world's population, but if you're counting immigration out of other countries in population change, you have to count immigration into the US. To quote Wikipedia: > From 2017 to 2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population increase: India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Uganda, and Indonesia, listed according to the expected size of their contribution to that projected population growth. 5 out of 9 of those countries are in Africa, but note that India is #1. Note that if you look into where they are getting their data, both OWID and Wikipedia are citing the UN DESA. Also note that a decline in population growth rate is not the same as a decline in population. Growth rates have been in decline worldwide since the 1950s, but are still positive, meaning population in those countries is still growing.
      - avip 7y ago
        India's TFR is reported 2.2-2.3 for 2018. That is, for a developing country with high child mortality, the replacement rate.
        kerkeslager 7y ago
        How high is child mortality? 4.1% as of 2016[1]. Even using your low number (2.2) that you didn't cite, 2.2 * (1 - 0.041) = 2.109, still above replacement. Please at least try to look up the statistics and form your opinion based on them, rather than forming your opinion and making up claims about the statistics based on your opinion. Why don't I just make this really simple for you: India's population will grow by 1.10% annually from 2015-2020 according to UN estimates from 2017.[1] If that's not recent enough for you, India is projected to grow 1.08% in 2019.[2] So however you want to argue this, India's population is growing. As I said and cited before, its absolute (not proportional) growth is greater than any other country in the world.[3] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populatio... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/ https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-populat... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#Growth_regions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...