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If Android were a separate company from Google, and the owners of Android and Google were the same (i.e. the post anti-trust breakup scenario), you'd expect a f

If Android were a separate company from Google, and the owners of Android and Google were the same (i.e. the post anti-trust breakup scenario), you'd expect a financially equivalent outcome. Google will obviously bid high enough that they are going to end up in the choice screen. How do we know this? iOS. As an owner, I don't care if one of my companies pays the other one some money. There are probably some accounting details, but ultimately it matters little. Other search engines would be competing for second, third, and fourth place. The only material difference between the current scenario and that one is that, IRL, Google will continue sponsoring Android even if this auction were insufficient to keep it solvent on its own. Otherwise, the outcome is the same. Of course, in that imaginary world, Android probably would become insolvent at some point, because a free mobile OS is not exactly a big money maker. I wonder who would buy it? See, even that other world naturally tends to become this one.

whalabi 7y ago
> [...] Android probably would become insolvent at some point, because a free mobile OS is not exactly a big money maker They'd still be making 30% is it? On every app purchase and in-app purchase on the play store, which is surely in the billions.
- Buraksr 7y ago
  It seems like Google's play store is doing well with 24.8 Billion dollars of Worldwide gross app revenue [0] as of 2018. Awhile ago Oracle gave an estimate of 31 billion dollars as an estimate of total revenue [2] but that seemed like a high estimate to me. 0-https://www.statista.com/statistics/444476/google-play-annual-revenue/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/444476/google-play-annua... 1-https://www.statista.com/statistics/281106/number-of-android-app-downloads-from-google-play/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/281106/number-of-android... 2-https://www.businessinsider.com/oracle-android-generates-31-billion-for-google-2016-1?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds https://www.businessinsider.com/oracle-android-generates-31-...
  - gibolt 7y ago
    Revenue is not profit. Only a percentage will go to Google. It is still a big number and certainly profitable, but developing/maintaining the store and Android are both very expensive.
henryfjordan 7y ago
You're not wrong, Android and Google will always be buddies as long as Google is top dog. But, if you break Android out of Google it allows shareholders to challenge decisions by the management of Android. There'd at least be the legal hurdle that Google has to actually always be the best choice. Bing could theoretically offer more for the top slot and Android can't factor in the other intangibles of putting Google first anyway like they currently do.
- ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
  Theoretically. But if they're not willing to offer top dollar for iOS, they sure won't for Android. And anyway, if they value Android spots so much, they will be able to bid in this auction and appear on the list. The list is randomized on each startup, so it doesn't matter whether Google bids more than Bing. The only thing that matters is who bids for fourth place and who bids for fifth. I sincerely doubt that anyone believes Google would fail to bid in the top four. TBH, I find it really interesting that people are complaining so much about this. It's actually a much more competition friendly approach, and less beneficial to Google, than what Apple does with iOS' search default. I guess it's a little different in that for iOS it is Apple aiding and abetting Google's monopoly, whereas with Android it seems like self-dealing. But I have yet to see a suggestion for something else to do that leads to a reasonable outcome.
zaphirplane 7y ago
The owners would be the same initially. The board would be different and Over time the ownership would drift. I don’t think equity and funds managers would view the payments between the 2 companies to be not real

whalabi 7y ago

> [...] Android probably would become insolvent at some point, because a free mobile OS is not exactly a big money maker They'd still be making 30% is it? On every app purchase and in-app purchase on the play store, which is surely in the billions.

Buraksr 7y ago
It seems like Google's play store is doing well with 24.8 Billion dollars of Worldwide gross app revenue [0] as of 2018. Awhile ago Oracle gave an estimate of 31 billion dollars as an estimate of total revenue [2] but that seemed like a high estimate to me. 0-https://www.statista.com/statistics/444476/google-play-annual-revenue/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/444476/google-play-annua... 1-https://www.statista.com/statistics/281106/number-of-android-app-downloads-from-google-play/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/281106/number-of-android... 2-https://www.businessinsider.com/oracle-android-generates-31-billion-for-google-2016-1?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds https://www.businessinsider.com/oracle-android-generates-31-...
- gibolt 7y ago
  Revenue is not profit. Only a percentage will go to Google. It is still a big number and certainly profitable, but developing/maintaining the store and Android are both very expensive.

henryfjordan 7y ago

You're not wrong, Android and Google will always be buddies as long as Google is top dog. But, if you break Android out of Google it allows shareholders to challenge decisions by the management of Android. There'd at least be the legal hurdle that Google has to actually always be the best choice. Bing could theoretically offer more for the top slot and Android can't factor in the other intangibles of putting Google first anyway like they currently do.

ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
Theoretically. But if they're not willing to offer top dollar for iOS, they sure won't for Android. And anyway, if they value Android spots so much, they will be able to bid in this auction and appear on the list. The list is randomized on each startup, so it doesn't matter whether Google bids more than Bing. The only thing that matters is who bids for fourth place and who bids for fifth. I sincerely doubt that anyone believes Google would fail to bid in the top four. TBH, I find it really interesting that people are complaining so much about this. It's actually a much more competition friendly approach, and less beneficial to Google, than what Apple does with iOS' search default. I guess it's a little different in that for iOS it is Apple aiding and abetting Google's monopoly, whereas with Android it seems like self-dealing. But I have yet to see a suggestion for something else to do that leads to a reasonable outcome.

zaphirplane 7y ago

The owners would be the same initially. The board would be different and Over time the ownership would drift. I don’t think equity and funds managers would view the payments between the 2 companies to be not real