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It's more like: "It only rains on my birthday. It's raining today - it must be my birthday." At least I'm not aware of any inversions of the 10-2 bond yield c
by jjwhitaker 7y ago
It's more like:
"It only rains on my birthday. It's raining today - it must be my birthday."
At least I'm not aware of any inversions of the 10-2 bond yield curve in the last 50 years that was not followed by a recession, however minor.
- vkou 7y agoThere have been inversions in the X - Y bond yield curve in the last 50 years that were sometimes followed, and sometimes not followed by recessions. You didn't come to the number 10 - 2 independently. It was cherry-picked to fit the narrative.
- jjwhitaker 7y agoThe other ratios have inverted over the last 6 months, I think as early as the 5-1 ratio in January. The 10-2 is simply the more extreme indicator and the bigger signal that a recession will probably happen in the coming 12-24 months. I used 10-2 both as it is in the news this week and is the critical indicator that I studied in college. In January I was referencing the 5-1 as an early indicator that without correction would lead to the 10-2 inverting as well.