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It's hard to follow his reasoning sometimes. Sometimes it seems like he's saying that we already went through the debt supercycle, or the end of the long-term d
by tunesmith 7y ago
It's hard to follow his reasoning sometimes. Sometimes it seems like he's saying that we already went through the debt supercycle, or the end of the long-term debt cycle and we've already gone through the reflation period.
But other times it sounds like he's saying the real "big one" is still about to happen, rather than just another recession.
- dv_dt 7y agoI haven't ever seen anything from him that says we've gone through it already - he cagey about exactly when (and that's the correct view imo) the next big recession hits, but I see him trying to lay groundwork to allow a few paradigm shifts in how governments have to take on new financial tools if we want to stay stable - e.g. helicopter money. You could get his "Big Debt Crisis" book (I got the free pdf on rollout), that lays out the case in detail with data.
- tunesmith 7y agoHe's referred to 2008 as the end of the long-term debt cycle, and the ten years since then as the reflation period.
- dv_dt 7y agoI don't think he saw 2008 as the end as much as it was the start of the end game - the debts have definitely come to any sort of deleveraging beautiful or ugly, and certainly no resolution of the fundamental inequality the Dalio was identifying as a root concern.