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"Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results". I am not saying a recession ISN'T imminent - but to declare affirmatively due to a technical indicator

"Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results". I am not saying a recession ISN'T imminent - but to declare affirmatively due to a technical indicator that one IS in an environment which has differences from the past is equally egregious. This yield inversion is based on sentiment, not fundamentals (yet). Also, suggesting folks buy long-term treasuries is literally following what the market is doing right now. Suppose the trade deal is fixed tomorrow and governments add surprise stimulus in the coming months. (by the way, you have a crystal ball as much as I do) If recession fears go away in a few months, those long term treasuries would lose value on the principal and you could very much experience capital losses (if you sell). Also: > Then when the Fed inevitably rides to the rescue, begin to unwind and capture the capital gains. Are you suggesting you can time the market like this? There is abundant literature which says people can't. How are you able to?

Bombthecat 7y ago
Yeah, my gut is also telling me, that governments would let half the population starve then let a recession happen.. But if it hits. It will be huge... We might also hit incredible high inflation... Making cash worthless..
navigatesol 7y ago
>Suppose the trade deal is fixed tomorrow Do you really believe that's going to happen? The "cold war" with China is heating up. >governments add surprise stimulus in the coming months What happens to interest rates? >If recession fears go away in a few months What do you mean by "recession fears"? People are examining the data and seeing the global economy slowing down; it isn't arbitrary, it's data driven, with the caveat that no indicator is perfect. >*those long term treasuries would lose value on the principal and you could very much experience capital losses (if you sell). Yes, investing has risk. But I find it odd you criticize using simple indicators, then state that if recession fears subside, treasuries will lose value. The value of bonds fluctuates with interest rates, not "recession fears". We can very easily have a bull market with falling rates. It's happened before.
- navigatesol 7y ago
  Downvotes with no replies. Do not imply a recession is possible, the Silicon Valley elite have not yet fully cashed out.

Bombthecat 7y ago

Yeah, my gut is also telling me, that governments would let half the population starve then let a recession happen.. But if it hits. It will be huge... We might also hit incredible high inflation... Making cash worthless..

navigatesol 7y ago

>Suppose the trade deal is fixed tomorrow Do you really believe that's going to happen? The "cold war" with China is heating up. >governments add surprise stimulus in the coming months What happens to interest rates? >If recession fears go away in a few months What do you mean by "recession fears"? People are examining the data and seeing the global economy slowing down; it isn't arbitrary, it's data driven, with the caveat that no indicator is perfect. >*those long term treasuries would lose value on the principal and you could very much experience capital losses (if you sell). Yes, investing has risk. But I find it odd you criticize using simple indicators, then state that if recession fears subside, treasuries will lose value. The value of bonds fluctuates with interest rates, not "recession fears". We can very easily have a bull market with falling rates. It's happened before.

navigatesol 7y ago
Downvotes with no replies. Do not imply a recession is possible, the Silicon Valley elite have not yet fully cashed out.