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Genuine question, with all the context and nuances you have provided, what positivity would bring to Beijing if they use military force? For me I dont see a mil

Genuine question, with all the context and nuances you have provided, what positivity would bring to Beijing if they use military force? For me I dont see a militarized HK will help with the trade dispute in any way.

uranusjr 7y ago
A militarized HK certainly won’t, but China may be convinced they could use military to bring Hong Kong back to approximately its pre-protest state. Hong Kong in its current state would be increasingly less likely to fill the economic role Beijing might need it to. It’d be reasonable to risk military action if they think they can repeat Tiananmen, with (western) countries repeating the appeasement policy on that occassion. And honestly I kind of feel they actually might have a chance to pull it off. Prominent countries don’t have a good track record reacting to China’s bullying tactics (except Trump, as much as I dislike him).
- theseadroid 7y ago
  You think Beijing would think pulling a Tiananmen 2.0 would bring HK into the right track fulfilling its economic role after? I dont think almost anyone, include almost every mainland Chinese would think that way. If military is involved, economies will crash, hard. Not only HK's economy, a lot of economies will crash. It will be an economic suicide for mainland China. Is there any doubt about that? And that's irrelevant if any western countries intervene or not. You probably haven't talked to any educated mainland Chinese recently? For the ones who would like to get HK in line and even get Taiwan back, the only feasible way they see is economic dominance over those territories. As a strategy by itself, I kinda agree. Edit: I dont think PRC depends on HK more economically than emotionally. HK is one of the symbols of western countries invasion 100 years ago. Getting it back has a great deal of emotional value for mainland Chinese. What I see PRC can extract more value out of HK right now is to emphasize the western influence over the protest, making regular Chinese more in line with PRC's world view and values. Anger directed towards other countries rather than introspective is a good thing for the gov if and when there's any hardship inflicted during the trade dispute period.
  - uranusjr 7y ago
    I agree as much as the next commenter here that HK can’t survive Tiananmen 2.0, but am not so sure about the CCP leadership. And I do have actual interactions with mainland Chinese (although I don’t know whether you’d consider them “educated.”) > It will be an economic suicide for mainland China. Is there any doubt about that? Why not? I would most definitely doubt it. Again, I do assume it would crash, but there is absolutely no actual proof that is the case. This wouldn’t be the first time CCP uses armed forces against civillian protest, and on every previous occassion they ended up just fine.
    - theseadroid 7y ago
      >This wouldn’t be the first time CCP uses armed forces against civillian protest Europeans have killed how many American Indians and ended up just fine. But can they do that today? Coerced sterilization of Indigenous women in Canada had been legal for as late as 1970s and do they dare to do that today [1,2]? What I'm saying is the world has changed quite a bit and so do CCP. >and on every previous occasion they ended up just fine. Really? For starters during previous conflicts CCP rarely had an economy to crash. Again, the legitimacy of CCP within mainland is almost purely lay on its power of economy growth. There are many Chinese people who are not content with it but bear CCP because of the economy growth [3]. You probably knew the 2014 Hong Kong protest, which had a similar scale? If CCP can wait that one out, why can't it do it again this time? [4] 1. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/forced-sterilization-lawsuit-could-expand-1.5102981 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/forced-sterilization-la... 2. https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/sterilization-of-indigenous-women-in-canada https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/sterilizat... 3. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20148705 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20148705 4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Central_with_Love_and_Peace https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Central_with_Love_and_P...

uranusjr 7y ago

A militarized HK certainly won’t, but China may be convinced they could use military to bring Hong Kong back to approximately its pre-protest state. Hong Kong in its current state would be increasingly less likely to fill the economic role Beijing might need it to. It’d be reasonable to risk military action if they think they can repeat Tiananmen, with (western) countries repeating the appeasement policy on that occassion. And honestly I kind of feel they actually might have a chance to pull it off. Prominent countries don’t have a good track record reacting to China’s bullying tactics (except Trump, as much as I dislike him).

theseadroid 7y ago
You think Beijing would think pulling a Tiananmen 2.0 would bring HK into the right track fulfilling its economic role after? I dont think almost anyone, include almost every mainland Chinese would think that way. If military is involved, economies will crash, hard. Not only HK's economy, a lot of economies will crash. It will be an economic suicide for mainland China. Is there any doubt about that? And that's irrelevant if any western countries intervene or not. You probably haven't talked to any educated mainland Chinese recently? For the ones who would like to get HK in line and even get Taiwan back, the only feasible way they see is economic dominance over those territories. As a strategy by itself, I kinda agree. Edit: I dont think PRC depends on HK more economically than emotionally. HK is one of the symbols of western countries invasion 100 years ago. Getting it back has a great deal of emotional value for mainland Chinese. What I see PRC can extract more value out of HK right now is to emphasize the western influence over the protest, making regular Chinese more in line with PRC's world view and values. Anger directed towards other countries rather than introspective is a good thing for the gov if and when there's any hardship inflicted during the trade dispute period.
- uranusjr 7y ago
  I agree as much as the next commenter here that HK can’t survive Tiananmen 2.0, but am not so sure about the CCP leadership. And I do have actual interactions with mainland Chinese (although I don’t know whether you’d consider them “educated.”) > It will be an economic suicide for mainland China. Is there any doubt about that? Why not? I would most definitely doubt it. Again, I do assume it would crash, but there is absolutely no actual proof that is the case. This wouldn’t be the first time CCP uses armed forces against civillian protest, and on every previous occassion they ended up just fine.
  - theseadroid 7y ago
    >This wouldn’t be the first time CCP uses armed forces against civillian protest Europeans have killed how many American Indians and ended up just fine. But can they do that today? Coerced sterilization of Indigenous women in Canada had been legal for as late as 1970s and do they dare to do that today [1,2]? What I'm saying is the world has changed quite a bit and so do CCP. >and on every previous occasion they ended up just fine. Really? For starters during previous conflicts CCP rarely had an economy to crash. Again, the legitimacy of CCP within mainland is almost purely lay on its power of economy growth. There are many Chinese people who are not content with it but bear CCP because of the economy growth [3]. You probably knew the 2014 Hong Kong protest, which had a similar scale? If CCP can wait that one out, why can't it do it again this time? [4] 1. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/forced-sterilization-lawsuit-could-expand-1.5102981 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/forced-sterilization-la... 2. https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/sterilization-of-indigenous-women-in-canada https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/sterilizat... 3. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20148705 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20148705 4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Central_with_Love_and_Peace https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Central_with_Love_and_P...