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> I'm 53, and the amount of technological change I've seen in my lifeime is astonishing I think its somewhat telling that your "Think about..." statements are

> I'm 53, and the amount of technological change I've seen in my lifeime is astonishing I think its somewhat telling that your "Think about..." statements are all hoping on technology yet-to-be, not technology that exists today. > Think about renewable energy more or less completely replacing fossil fuel in coming decades. But we thought peak oil was gonna be around 1970. Today petroleum engineering still has better job prospects than nuclear engineering. I think the track record for "just around the corner" is quite poor. > Think about the extraordinary amount of light-cognitive work, like driving, that will be replaced by automation. I think that the track record... The examples you have for technology that's actually happened in your life are just computers. Which are great, nobody doubts those strides. But how's the subway vs when you were 10? How much has schooling changed for the better? Are kids happier in school now, or completing it faster? How has how most people get to work different than 50 years ago? Are more people able to walk or use fast public transport than ever before? Hows your experience at the airport? How about building roads? Is it cheaper than ever, like with computers? How about housing? If computers getting cheaper and faster is progressing technologically, by the same metric are not roads and houses going backwards technologically? How's the quality of our food tech improved in the last 53 years? Are we all reaping the rewards of that? Why are we so much more obese and diabetic? How's the quality of life for the average child? Can they spend their day doing more of what they wanted vs 53 years ago? Or are they under what is essentially house arrest more than ever? If we have more technology, why isn't their environment safer and freer? Why can't they easily get to the library and museum on their own, like they can in Japan? If the technology we do have is improving our lives, are children (and adults) less depressed now than 53 years ago? What are the things that stopped working? I don't think its a flippant question that can be answered only with computers and cell phones. Some technology has definitely advanced, but it should be just as obvious that some has almost completely stalled.

awinder 7y ago
> How's the quality of our food tech improved in the last 53 years? Are we all reaping the rewards of that? Why are we so much more obese and diabetic? Purely talking about the technology, food manufacturing tech has experienced radical innovation over the last 53 years. Not just "with computers", but through biology / biotech etc. These things have nothing to do with socioeconomic issues which largely underpin, e.g., public health issues like obesity and diabetes. That's actually the common refrain through this whole list, it mostly seems you're arguing that technological innovation hasn't kept pace with social progress, which might be true, but is also a completely orthogonal point. > How's the quality of life for the average child? Can they spend their day doing more of what they wanted vs 53 years ago? Speaking of technological progress, medicine! Your stat measure has the same problem. The correct answer is: 1/10 infants died in 1915, to .3/10 in 1950, to .07/10 in 2000 to .05/10 per day. Each step along the way, due to technology/scientific advancement, measurable & meaningful numbers of kids got to experience life, who would not have been able to without those advancements. This is why we do what we do, and here's to knocking .05 down to .01 because that is who we are.
beat 7y ago
The original peak oil theory predicted US production only, and it was correct down to the exact year. We did break that peak again, finally - in 2017, after nearly 50 years of aggressive technological improvement in oil discovery/recovery. For any given oil field, peak oil theory is extremely accurate. As for technology that has happened in my lifetime... the reason I have a lifetime right now is due to laser surgery. That technology did not exist when I was a child. If my illness had appeared then rather than today, I would have died from it. Not computers at all, really, although I'm sure computer-aided design played a role. Our food tech has improved tremendously - but that doesn't mean that the food is healthier. It means it is cheaper, more plentiful, has longer shelf life, and more enticing flavors.

awinder 7y ago

> How's the quality of our food tech improved in the last 53 years? Are we all reaping the rewards of that? Why are we so much more obese and diabetic? Purely talking about the technology, food manufacturing tech has experienced radical innovation over the last 53 years. Not just "with computers", but through biology / biotech etc. These things have nothing to do with socioeconomic issues which largely underpin, e.g., public health issues like obesity and diabetes. That's actually the common refrain through this whole list, it mostly seems you're arguing that technological innovation hasn't kept pace with social progress, which might be true, but is also a completely orthogonal point. > How's the quality of life for the average child? Can they spend their day doing more of what they wanted vs 53 years ago? Speaking of technological progress, medicine! Your stat measure has the same problem. The correct answer is: 1/10 infants died in 1915, to .3/10 in 1950, to .07/10 in 2000 to .05/10 per day. Each step along the way, due to technology/scientific advancement, measurable & meaningful numbers of kids got to experience life, who would not have been able to without those advancements. This is why we do what we do, and here's to knocking .05 down to .01 because that is who we are.

beat 7y ago

The original peak oil theory predicted US production only, and it was correct down to the exact year. We did break that peak again, finally - in 2017, after nearly 50 years of aggressive technological improvement in oil discovery/recovery. For any given oil field, peak oil theory is extremely accurate. As for technology that has happened in my lifetime... the reason I have a lifetime right now is due to laser surgery. That technology did not exist when I was a child. If my illness had appeared then rather than today, I would have died from it. Not computers at all, really, although I'm sure computer-aided design played a role. Our food tech has improved tremendously - but that doesn't mean that the food is healthier. It means it is cheaper, more plentiful, has longer shelf life, and more enticing flavors.