5 ms·

> They are screwed without an armed populace. Say Hong Kong did have something like the 2nd amendment, and more private firearms than citizens just like the US

> They are screwed without an armed populace. Say Hong Kong did have something like the 2nd amendment, and more private firearms than citizens just like the USA. What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Liberation_Army https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Liberation_Army

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army? Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Pot shots and IEDs, sabotage, et cetera would have made China’s occupation of Hong Kong a PITA. It would raise the stakes of invasion from worldwide outrage to having to destroy Hong Kong in a Pyrrhic victory.
- sgjohnson 7y ago
  It also has 2 islands. Blowing up the bridges would help too.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > Blowing up the bridges would help too Hong Kong can’t win a war against China. It’s too vulnerable to blockade. Barring a Berlin airlift, their strategy would be waiting out Xi with urban guerrilla tactics.
    - sgjohnson 7y ago
      Yes, in a comment below I added "and pray for western assistance". It would at least cause a delay big enough for the west to act.
- ivalm 7y ago
  > Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Only in a sense of US rules of engagement. However, look at other less scrupulous countries dealing with urban combat and you will see that while bloody they can pacify quickly. If you know that resisting means death of your family, you're less likely to resist. If your neighbour's best way to safeguard his family is to expose every guerilla fighter he knows he will do it. The thing is, it won't be pyhrric victory, it will be a full and near lossless victory for PLA. Most HKers will lay down their arms because people generally dont want to die in a hopeless struggle and collective punishment will flush out the remaining guerrillas.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > while bloody they can pacify quickly This is far from universal. Chechnya was bloody. Syria remains bloody. Short of razing a city, we don’t have great tools for fighting urban insurgencies.
    - ivalm 7y ago
      Historically: 1. Chechnya WAS pacified when Russians started using inhumane tactics. 2. Chechnya had an organized military to fight Russians. 3. Chechnya and Syria had rebels use military equipment of similar quality as their adversary. 4. Assad and Yeltzin's armies were very mismanaged/poor quality. I posit that PLA is 1. Actually professional and not disorganized like russian/Syrian militaries 2. HKers will not be able to capture PLA equipment in any significant amounts
  - swirepe 7y ago
    > less scrupulous countries dealing with urban combat Do you have any examples? I'm not challenging you, I just don't know much about this topic.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - ivalm 7y ago
- saagarjha 7y ago
  I'm sure the people of Hong Kong would end up better this way :/
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > I'm sure the people of Hong Kong would end up better this way We’re exploring the hypothetical military suppression of Hong Kong’s system of laws and government. Nothing is good in this scenario. The options are coöperation (and likely concentration camps), escape and resistance.
- Retra 7y ago
  The problem with urban insurgencies is the people who don't carry firearms, not the ones that do. If you can identify the combatants, it is much easier to kill them.
sgjohnson 7y ago
Blow up the bridges to the islands, throw IEDs at PLAs armour and pray for western assistance. At least they would have a chance. As things stand, if tanks start rolling in, it'll be over before the US manages to turn a carrier around.
- CharlesColeman 7y ago
  IIRC, HK doesn't have a sufficient water supply (let alone food), so all the CCP needs to do to win is put it under siege. IIRC, one of the reasons the British decided to give it up was that they judged it to be militarily indefensible against China.
- echaozh 7y ago
  Yeah, the Russians meddling with US election is intolerable, but the West assisting HK riot is the right thing to do.
sneeze-slayer 7y ago
No, no, no, you have it all wrong. Having guns protects the people from tyrannical governments. Just don't question it.
whiddershins 7y ago
Urban armed resistance in Hong Kong would be insanely difficult to deal with. The city is all sky scrapers with tiny winding streets and secret entrances and exits to and from everywhere. Resistance could probably persist for decades unless China were willing to just level the islands and start over.
- sgjohnson 7y ago
  HK is heavily reliant on trade. All they would have to do is to block the waterways. It'd be quite easy to starve HK.
matthewmarkus 7y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmT0_hKSUrw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmT0_hKSUrw
Iv 7y ago
Yeah, that's not like China has a history of successful guerilla warfare or if they were studying the precursor of these tactics at school... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong

JumpCrisscross 7y ago

> What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army? Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Pot shots and IEDs, sabotage, et cetera would have made China’s occupation of Hong Kong a PITA. It would raise the stakes of invasion from worldwide outrage to having to destroy Hong Kong in a Pyrrhic victory.

sgjohnson 7y ago
It also has 2 islands. Blowing up the bridges would help too.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > Blowing up the bridges would help too Hong Kong can’t win a war against China. It’s too vulnerable to blockade. Barring a Berlin airlift, their strategy would be waiting out Xi with urban guerrilla tactics.
  - sgjohnson 7y ago
    Yes, in a comment below I added "and pray for western assistance". It would at least cause a delay big enough for the west to act.
ivalm 7y ago
> Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Only in a sense of US rules of engagement. However, look at other less scrupulous countries dealing with urban combat and you will see that while bloody they can pacify quickly. If you know that resisting means death of your family, you're less likely to resist. If your neighbour's best way to safeguard his family is to expose every guerilla fighter he knows he will do it. The thing is, it won't be pyhrric victory, it will be a full and near lossless victory for PLA. Most HKers will lay down their arms because people generally dont want to die in a hopeless struggle and collective punishment will flush out the remaining guerrillas.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > while bloody they can pacify quickly This is far from universal. Chechnya was bloody. Syria remains bloody. Short of razing a city, we don’t have great tools for fighting urban insurgencies.
  - ivalm 7y ago
    Historically: 1. Chechnya WAS pacified when Russians started using inhumane tactics. 2. Chechnya had an organized military to fight Russians. 3. Chechnya and Syria had rebels use military equipment of similar quality as their adversary. 4. Assad and Yeltzin's armies were very mismanaged/poor quality. I posit that PLA is 1. Actually professional and not disorganized like russian/Syrian militaries 2. HKers will not be able to capture PLA equipment in any significant amounts
- swirepe 7y ago
  > less scrupulous countries dealing with urban combat Do you have any examples? I'm not challenging you, I just don't know much about this topic.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - ivalm 7y ago
saagarjha 7y ago
I'm sure the people of Hong Kong would end up better this way :/
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > I'm sure the people of Hong Kong would end up better this way We’re exploring the hypothetical military suppression of Hong Kong’s system of laws and government. Nothing is good in this scenario. The options are coöperation (and likely concentration camps), escape and resistance.
Retra 7y ago
The problem with urban insurgencies is the people who don't carry firearms, not the ones that do. If you can identify the combatants, it is much easier to kill them.

sgjohnson 7y ago

Blow up the bridges to the islands, throw IEDs at PLAs armour and pray for western assistance. At least they would have a chance. As things stand, if tanks start rolling in, it'll be over before the US manages to turn a carrier around.

CharlesColeman 7y ago
IIRC, HK doesn't have a sufficient water supply (let alone food), so all the CCP needs to do to win is put it under siege. IIRC, one of the reasons the British decided to give it up was that they judged it to be militarily indefensible against China.
echaozh 7y ago
Yeah, the Russians meddling with US election is intolerable, but the West assisting HK riot is the right thing to do.

sneeze-slayer 7y ago

No, no, no, you have it all wrong. Having guns protects the people from tyrannical governments. Just don't question it.

whiddershins 7y ago

Urban armed resistance in Hong Kong would be insanely difficult to deal with. The city is all sky scrapers with tiny winding streets and secret entrances and exits to and from everywhere. Resistance could probably persist for decades unless China were willing to just level the islands and start over.

sgjohnson 7y ago
HK is heavily reliant on trade. All they would have to do is to block the waterways. It'd be quite easy to starve HK.

matthewmarkus 7y ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmT0_hKSUrw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmT0_hKSUrw

Iv 7y ago

Yeah, that's not like China has a history of successful guerilla warfare or if they were studying the precursor of these tactics at school... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong