5 ms·

They are screwed without an armed populace.

jszymborski 7y ago
The PRC would love nothing more for this to be seen around the world as a bloody civil war, where both sides have equal power.
- neffy 7y ago
  Exactly. This is India vs the British Empire, non-violence is the only thing that stands a chance.
  - consumer451 7y ago
    > Exactly. This is India vs the British Empire, non-violence is the only thing that stands a chance. I completely agree. I have been thinking that just thwarting the agent provocateurs and hot-headed protestors would be a giant task for protest leadership in itself. It should actually be priority number one. I admit it's easy for me to say that when I'm not being confronted by police and getting caught up in the fever of the crowd.
basementcat 7y ago
Hong Kong residents may possess firearms with a permit, not unlike most industrialized countries.
- madengr 7y ago
  Probably about as rare as Joe Public having a CCW permit in NYC. The registration will be very useful for confiscation.
- k_sze 7y ago
  Yes, but 1. in reality only a tiny tiny tiny fraction of the population has such permits; 2. the majority of permit holders are probably members of police/ICAC/correctional services; 3. if I remember correctly, you’re supposed to leave your gun at the gun club anyway, not take it home.
- sgjohnson 7y ago
  Actually in most industrialized countries one can possess a firearm with a permit. It's just that the restrictions are extreme, and getting one is also extremely difficult. I'm living in the UK and I could get a rifle licence if I really wanted to, it's just that the restrictions are far too severe. Must be straight-pull that's manufactured that way, not converted. Makes an AR-15 equivalent worth $5k. That is after you have spent a year on getting the permit and other technicalities. Instead I just travel to eastern europe or the United States every now and then to shoot some guns as the rules are a lot more lax in say, Poland, Estonia, Czech Republic and Latvia. In those countries you can generally go to a range and they'll accomodate you. Although ammunition costs about 5-10x what it would cost in the States.
consumer451 7y ago
> They are screwed without an armed populace. Say Hong Kong did have something like the 2nd amendment, and more private firearms than citizens just like the USA. What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Liberation_Army https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Liberation_Army
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army? Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Pot shots and IEDs, sabotage, et cetera would have made China’s occupation of Hong Kong a PITA. It would raise the stakes of invasion from worldwide outrage to having to destroy Hong Kong in a Pyrrhic victory.
  - sgjohnson 7y ago
    It also has 2 islands. Blowing up the bridges would help too.
    - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > Blowing up the bridges would help too Hong Kong can’t win a war against China. It’s too vulnerable to blockade. Barring a Berlin airlift, their strategy would be waiting out Xi with urban guerrilla tactics.
      - sgjohnson 7y ago
        Yes, in a comment below I added "and pray for western assistance". It would at least cause a delay big enough for the west to act.
  - ivalm 7y ago
    > Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Only in a sense of US rules of engagement. However, look at other less scrupulous countries dealing with urban combat and you will see that while bloody they can pacify quickly. If you know that resisting means death of your family, you're less likely to resist. If your neighbour's best way to safeguard his family is to expose every guerilla fighter he knows he will do it. The thing is, it won't be pyhrric victory, it will be a full and near lossless victory for PLA. Most HKers will lay down their arms because people generally dont want to die in a hopeless struggle and collective punishment will flush out the remaining guerrillas.
ivalm 7y ago
If mainland China could justify military intervention due to HK's "armed rebellion" they would be happy to do it. HKs populace, even armed with best small arms, would not pose any significant challenge to PLA. Kind of like random Texan militias arent actually capable of resisting the US Marines. With advent of modern military technologies there is absolutely no power symmetry between militias and professional armies.
- verttii 7y ago
  I agree. HK would need Singapore level armed forces to make the price tag high enough for the PLA. If even then.
- madengr 7y ago
  Like this? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundy_standoff https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundy_standoff
  - ivalm 7y ago
    This is entirely the US government showing restraint. You do realize they could have easily killed everyone with 0 losses?
    - madengr 7y ago
      Zero losses? No.
      - ivalm 7y ago
        Literally the militia was holed up in a compound that could have been erased through missile strikes. No need for exchanging gun fire. That's the whole point. The military capabilities are very asymmetric.
        aswanson 7y ago
        Yup. All they needed was the lat/long gps coordinates. A strike could have been controlled by a laptop on the other side of the country.

The PRC would love nothing more for this to be seen around the world as a bloody civil war, where both sides have equal power.

neffy 7y ago
Exactly. This is India vs the British Empire, non-violence is the only thing that stands a chance.
- consumer451 7y ago
  > Exactly. This is India vs the British Empire, non-violence is the only thing that stands a chance. I completely agree. I have been thinking that just thwarting the agent provocateurs and hot-headed protestors would be a giant task for protest leadership in itself. It should actually be priority number one. I admit it's easy for me to say that when I'm not being confronted by police and getting caught up in the fever of the crowd.

basementcat 7y ago

Hong Kong residents may possess firearms with a permit, not unlike most industrialized countries.

madengr 7y ago
Probably about as rare as Joe Public having a CCW permit in NYC. The registration will be very useful for confiscation.
k_sze 7y ago
Yes, but 1. in reality only a tiny tiny tiny fraction of the population has such permits; 2. the majority of permit holders are probably members of police/ICAC/correctional services; 3. if I remember correctly, you’re supposed to leave your gun at the gun club anyway, not take it home.
sgjohnson 7y ago
Actually in most industrialized countries one can possess a firearm with a permit. It's just that the restrictions are extreme, and getting one is also extremely difficult. I'm living in the UK and I could get a rifle licence if I really wanted to, it's just that the restrictions are far too severe. Must be straight-pull that's manufactured that way, not converted. Makes an AR-15 equivalent worth $5k. That is after you have spent a year on getting the permit and other technicalities. Instead I just travel to eastern europe or the United States every now and then to shoot some guns as the rules are a lot more lax in say, Poland, Estonia, Czech Republic and Latvia. In those countries you can generally go to a range and they'll accomodate you. Although ammunition costs about 5-10x what it would cost in the States.

consumer451 7y ago

> They are screwed without an armed populace. Say Hong Kong did have something like the 2nd amendment, and more private firearms than citizens just like the USA. What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Liberation_Army https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Liberation_Army

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army? Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Pot shots and IEDs, sabotage, et cetera would have made China’s occupation of Hong Kong a PITA. It would raise the stakes of invasion from worldwide outrage to having to destroy Hong Kong in a Pyrrhic victory.
- sgjohnson 7y ago
  It also has 2 islands. Blowing up the bridges would help too.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > Blowing up the bridges would help too Hong Kong can’t win a war against China. It’s too vulnerable to blockade. Barring a Berlin airlift, their strategy would be waiting out Xi with urban guerrilla tactics.
    - sgjohnson 7y ago
      Yes, in a comment below I added "and pray for western assistance". It would at least cause a delay big enough for the west to act.
- ivalm 7y ago
  > Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Only in a sense of US rules of engagement. However, look at other less scrupulous countries dealing with urban combat and you will see that while bloody they can pacify quickly. If you know that resisting means death of your family, you're less likely to resist. If your neighbour's best way to safeguard his family is to expose every guerilla fighter he knows he will do it. The thing is, it won't be pyhrric victory, it will be a full and near lossless victory for PLA. Most HKers will lay down their arms because people generally dont want to die in a hopeless struggle and collective punishment will flush out the remaining guerrillas.

ivalm 7y ago

If mainland China could justify military intervention due to HK's "armed rebellion" they would be happy to do it. HKs populace, even armed with best small arms, would not pose any significant challenge to PLA. Kind of like random Texan militias arent actually capable of resisting the US Marines. With advent of modern military technologies there is absolutely no power symmetry between militias and professional armies.

verttii 7y ago
I agree. HK would need Singapore level armed forces to make the price tag high enough for the PLA. If even then.
madengr 7y ago
Like this? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundy_standoff https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundy_standoff
- ivalm 7y ago
  This is entirely the US government showing restraint. You do realize they could have easily killed everyone with 0 losses?
  - madengr 7y ago
    Zero losses? No.
    - ivalm 7y ago
      Literally the militia was holed up in a compound that could have been erased through missile strikes. No need for exchanging gun fire. That's the whole point. The military capabilities are very asymmetric.
      - aswanson 7y ago
        Yup. All they needed was the lat/long gps coordinates. A strike could have been controlled by a laptop on the other side of the country.