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I think we're still pretty far away from that. China has a lot to lose on the international stage if anything like that were to go down. They would much rather

I think we're still pretty far away from that. China has a lot to lose on the international stage if anything like that were to go down. They would much rather have the local police deal with it (since the local police is aligned with Beijing) and keep plausible deniability. If anything, I think the threats of involving the army are more about (1) deterring supporters and (2) planting the seeds of this idea that this is something they can do, to give themselves the option in the future. I could be wrong, but I certainly hope not. If the army rolls in, I'll probably seriously reconsider sticking around and might book a one-way out of here, because at that point it might well turn into a war zone.

mytailorisrich 7y ago
I'm not sure we can say that the police is "aligned with Beijing". Whatever one's opinion of what the protesters are demanding they are breaking the law and rioting (as per Hong Kong law that dates back from British rule), and many of their actions are simply not acceptable. They are really not helping themselves. The police will respond to that anywhere.
- PlasticTank 7y ago
  Funnily enough tyrants don't usually listen unless forced, this is what a fight for freedom looks like. Some things are more important than convenience and money.
- pimmen 7y ago
  The reaction from a Westerner is ”wow, this is nothing compared to all the crazy shit we had to do to get democracy, and now with the democratic institutions and independent justice systems in place, definitely worth it”.
culturestate 7y ago
Having lived in Hong Kong (and China) for a long time, I think you're wrong. I doubt very much that protesters will be shot in the streets or anything so drastic, but the city is very close to having the PLA openly deployed to "back up" the HKPF.
- loyukfai 7y ago
  FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF. Personally I think the PLA option is a non-starter at the moment. HK for all its bads is still vitally important to the Chinese economy especially during the current trade war with the USA.
  - culturestate 7y ago
    > FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF. This is why I said "openly." Economically, Hong Kong is increasingly irrelevant to China - it's only like the fifth largest city by GDP, and there are 10 more catching up quickly. HK is far more important as a symbol, and if I were Xi Jinping headed into a turbulent global economy with flagging growth at home I wouldn't want it to look like I couldn't control my people. That said, it's a delicate balancing act. Too little response and you seem weak; too harsh and you draw international condemnation and confirm the worst fear of everyone who is counting on China to join the world order rather than try and upend it.
    - loyukfai 7y ago
      PLA is different from PAP though although we may just be disagreeing on a technicality. BTW, HK while definitely not the economic powerhouse it once was, it still has a pretty special place as a truly international city for the PRC government, which is something intangible and cannot be expressed in pure GDP number.

mytailorisrich 7y ago

I'm not sure we can say that the police is "aligned with Beijing". Whatever one's opinion of what the protesters are demanding they are breaking the law and rioting (as per Hong Kong law that dates back from British rule), and many of their actions are simply not acceptable. They are really not helping themselves. The police will respond to that anywhere.

PlasticTank 7y ago
Funnily enough tyrants don't usually listen unless forced, this is what a fight for freedom looks like. Some things are more important than convenience and money.
pimmen 7y ago
The reaction from a Westerner is ”wow, this is nothing compared to all the crazy shit we had to do to get democracy, and now with the democratic institutions and independent justice systems in place, definitely worth it”.

culturestate 7y ago

Having lived in Hong Kong (and China) for a long time, I think you're wrong. I doubt very much that protesters will be shot in the streets or anything so drastic, but the city is very close to having the PLA openly deployed to "back up" the HKPF.

loyukfai 7y ago
FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF. Personally I think the PLA option is a non-starter at the moment. HK for all its bads is still vitally important to the Chinese economy especially during the current trade war with the USA.
- culturestate 7y ago
  > FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF. This is why I said "openly." Economically, Hong Kong is increasingly irrelevant to China - it's only like the fifth largest city by GDP, and there are 10 more catching up quickly. HK is far more important as a symbol, and if I were Xi Jinping headed into a turbulent global economy with flagging growth at home I wouldn't want it to look like I couldn't control my people. That said, it's a delicate balancing act. Too little response and you seem weak; too harsh and you draw international condemnation and confirm the worst fear of everyone who is counting on China to join the world order rather than try and upend it.
  - loyukfai 7y ago
    PLA is different from PAP though although we may just be disagreeing on a technicality. BTW, HK while definitely not the economic powerhouse it once was, it still has a pretty special place as a truly international city for the PRC government, which is something intangible and cannot be expressed in pure GDP number.