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>EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You're absolutely correct. That's why every Tesla with over 100,00 miles on it has been sent to the junkyard

>EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You're absolutely correct. That's why every Tesla with over 100,00 miles on it has been sent to the junkyard because it no longer takes a charge. Oh, and one consequence of rapidly falling battery prices is that if at some point your battery capacity eventually does get too low, you can buy a replacement at a small fraction of what the original cost.

clouddrover 7y ago
> you can buy a replacement at a small fraction of what the original cost. For how much? If your future cheap battery costs $100 per kilowatt hour at the pack level, you're spending $8,000 for an 80 kilowatt hour battery. That's a large small fraction.
- woodandsteel 7y ago
  Ten years from now it will probably be more like 25$ per kilowatt hour. And don't forget that any capacity the old pack has means it can be sold for grid storage. But even if it is higher, you still will have saved a lot more in total operating cost. An that is the basic point the OP was making. EV's are already a better deal, it's just that they are new and so most people don't realize it. And one more point. Once the swing to EV's starts to happen in a few years, then the resale value of ICE's is going to plummet, and you would lose a lot more that way if you bought one than you would pay for a replacement battery.
  - clouddrover 7y ago
    > Ten years from now it will probably be more like 25$ per kilowatt hour. You've fallen victim to wishful thinking. Show me even one projection at that price point. > then the resale value of ICE's is going to plummet Which makes it a buyer's market which is even more reason to buy a secondhand ICE vehicle over a secondhand EV.
    - woodandsteel 7y ago
      >You've fallen victim to wishful thinking. Show me even one projection at that price point. Battery prices have been falling rapidly. They went down 35% in the last year alone. This is partly due to improved technology and partly to increasing economies of scale. Those two trends are predicted to continue. >Which makes it a buyer's market which is even more reason to buy a secondhand ICE vehicle over a secondhand EV. The problem is that if ICE resale prices drop, then the effective price of buying an ICE new goes up, which steer people toward buying an EV instead. EV prices are predicted to reach sticker price parity with ICE's around 2024. And their total lifetime ownership costs are already lower. When that happens then ICE sales are going to drop rapidly and be replaced by ICE's. Remember, the original article is about GM and VW giving up on hybrids and switching to battery EV's. They are doing this because they are aware of what is going to happen and realize they will go bankrupt if they don't switch as fast as possible (and they make their money selling new cars, so people buying used ICE's is not going to save them).
      - clouddrover 7y ago
        > Battery prices have been falling rapidly. Show me a single projection that claims $25 a kwh at the pack level in 10 years.

clouddrover 7y ago

> you can buy a replacement at a small fraction of what the original cost. For how much? If your future cheap battery costs $100 per kilowatt hour at the pack level, you're spending $8,000 for an 80 kilowatt hour battery. That's a large small fraction.

woodandsteel 7y ago
Ten years from now it will probably be more like 25$ per kilowatt hour. And don't forget that any capacity the old pack has means it can be sold for grid storage. But even if it is higher, you still will have saved a lot more in total operating cost. An that is the basic point the OP was making. EV's are already a better deal, it's just that they are new and so most people don't realize it. And one more point. Once the swing to EV's starts to happen in a few years, then the resale value of ICE's is going to plummet, and you would lose a lot more that way if you bought one than you would pay for a replacement battery.
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > Ten years from now it will probably be more like 25$ per kilowatt hour. You've fallen victim to wishful thinking. Show me even one projection at that price point. > then the resale value of ICE's is going to plummet Which makes it a buyer's market which is even more reason to buy a secondhand ICE vehicle over a secondhand EV.
  - woodandsteel 7y ago
    >You've fallen victim to wishful thinking. Show me even one projection at that price point. Battery prices have been falling rapidly. They went down 35% in the last year alone. This is partly due to improved technology and partly to increasing economies of scale. Those two trends are predicted to continue. >Which makes it a buyer's market which is even more reason to buy a secondhand ICE vehicle over a secondhand EV. The problem is that if ICE resale prices drop, then the effective price of buying an ICE new goes up, which steer people toward buying an EV instead. EV prices are predicted to reach sticker price parity with ICE's around 2024. And their total lifetime ownership costs are already lower. When that happens then ICE sales are going to drop rapidly and be replaced by ICE's. Remember, the original article is about GM and VW giving up on hybrids and switching to battery EV's. They are doing this because they are aware of what is going to happen and realize they will go bankrupt if they don't switch as fast as possible (and they make their money selling new cars, so people buying used ICE's is not going to save them).
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      > Battery prices have been falling rapidly. Show me a single projection that claims $25 a kwh at the pack level in 10 years.