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I know there are a lot of nay sayers in this thread about the viability of this acquistion but consider this: > Even still, Matt says Tumblr’s user base is, “
by no_wizard 7y ago
I know there are a lot of nay sayers in this thread about the viability of this acquistion but consider this:
> Even still, Matt says Tumblr’s user base is, “several times larger than [WordPress.com].”
I don't know what Automattic paid exactly, but the story speculates that:
> Dan Primack of Axios is reporting a “source familiar” put the price, “well south of $20 million.”
So even if Tumblr is plateaued or declining still, it has several magnitudes of declining (for lack of a better term maybe?) before it even hits the same size as wordpress.com
Using the $20 Million Dollar as the ceiling here, all they would need to do is convert:
- four million users to their $5 month plan to make back $20 million dollars
- two million five hundred thousand users to the $8 a month plan to make $20 million dollars
- eight hundred thousand users to their $25 dollar a month plan to make $20 million dollars
- forty five thousand users to their $45 dollar a month ecommerce plan to make $20 million dollars
Now, if you figure they'll likely monetize some of these users on a wide variety of these plans, the numbers start to pan out quite quickly. This doesn't count things like ad revenue on free tiers, for instance.
- cf498 7y agoLike others have quoted, south of 20m means south of 3m. At that price tag grave digging makes complete sense if you can stem the running costs.
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y agoWhy are you comparing the cost of a single month against a one-off purchase price? I have no idea what Tumblr's churn rate is, but if they can hold onto that $5/mo user for a year, they only need 333k to make back $20m -- or 50,000 to make back $3m.