5 ms·

I've scaled back my expectations. By now, I'm shooting for laws and books. I think the question is not so much about whether the human race will survive (thou

I've scaled back my expectations. By now, I'm shooting for laws and books. I think the question is not so much about whether the human race will survive (though surely it will be smaller in number) but whether it will be recognizable at all (aka "civilized").

chrisco255 7y ago
Oh boy, alarmism at its finest. Crop yields are up anywhere from 50-100%. Livestock numbers are stable. Food supply is more than secure. Sea level rise, is fairly minimal at 3mm a year. Certainly not cause for doom and gloom. Certainly manageable. Basic needs of humanity are: food, water, and shelter. None of which is in danger or even remotely close to danger levels. The idea that the human race is any remote kind of danger is bogus.
- methehack 7y ago
  Sigh. It's this kind of response that makes me convinced we deserve it.
  - bsaul 7y ago
    I have an intuition that « we deserve it », is the modern equivalent of « gods are punishing us for our sins », but in this case it’s nature. Not to judge whether we’re actually running to a catastrophy or not, but i can’t help think many people are somehow « happy » if we were, because they hate our current civilisation so much.
    - rabidrat 7y ago
      Gosh, I wonder if our current civilisation has earned its enemies? I mean the internet is cool and all, but our fantastic civilisation can't manage to use it to coordinate a meaningful response to the existential crisis of our era...that it's inducing itself, at an ever-accelerating rate. Capitalism has yielded a system that's accidentally optimizing for a dystopia of impersonal fractious hate, surveillance, psychic manipulation, and social isolation. So I think many people would be quite happy to see this system dismantled. Unfortunately I fear that the subsequent system is going to be even worse :/
    - methehack 7y ago
      "we deserve it" is a moral condemnation of our collective failure and its causes, not a statement of hatred. I think our civilization is fantastic, bracketing perhaps the last 3 or so years. It may not last the night, but it gives a lovely light.
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    Sigh, it's this kind of response that makes me convinced you have no arguments to the contrary. Rice yields are up 40% since 1988: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyl... Corn's up 60%: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyl... Wheat is up 48% since '88: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/wwyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/wwyld.... Cattle inventory looks steady: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Cattle/inv.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Cattle/inv.php
    - methehack 7y ago
      Just because it's sunny today, doesn't mean you should plan a picnic for tomorrow if all the forecasts say 100% rain. Will it rain? True, we don't _really_ know. Enjoy your sausages, friend! I'm sure they'll be plenty to go around.
      - chrisco255 7y ago
        What kind of argument is this? I give factual data showing that since 1988, crop yields are up significantly in the face of all this supposedly catastrophic CO2 emissions. And why wouldn't they be? Plants thrive on CO2. Plants grow faster with higher levels of CO2. Greenhouses literally have CO2 pumped into them to enable more rapid crop growth. The doomsday scenario about humanity's odds in the face of climate change are based on nothing rational. The water cycle that the planet has enabled for the past billion plus years isn't going to undergo any drastic changes. There will be plenty of rice, wheat, corn, and every other crop to go along with my sausage, my friend. For decades to come, short of a meteor impact or sudden increase in volcanic activity.
    - yongjik 7y ago
      This is the equivalent of measuring a SV company's financials by the number of different snacks in its microkitchen. Sure, it will be stable, or even improving, until one day (if we are unlucky) it will catastrophically collapse. If we want to figure out whether we'll be lucky, we'll have to look at actual figures (i.e., balance sheets) predicting the company's future, and it's not looking good.
  - perfunctory 7y ago
    Please don't. This response is a tiny minority.
    - methehack 7y ago
      Tiny yet somehow dominant.

chrisco255 7y ago

Oh boy, alarmism at its finest. Crop yields are up anywhere from 50-100%. Livestock numbers are stable. Food supply is more than secure. Sea level rise, is fairly minimal at 3mm a year. Certainly not cause for doom and gloom. Certainly manageable. Basic needs of humanity are: food, water, and shelter. None of which is in danger or even remotely close to danger levels. The idea that the human race is any remote kind of danger is bogus.

methehack 7y ago
Sigh. It's this kind of response that makes me convinced we deserve it.
- bsaul 7y ago
  I have an intuition that « we deserve it », is the modern equivalent of « gods are punishing us for our sins », but in this case it’s nature. Not to judge whether we’re actually running to a catastrophy or not, but i can’t help think many people are somehow « happy » if we were, because they hate our current civilisation so much.
  - rabidrat 7y ago
    Gosh, I wonder if our current civilisation has earned its enemies? I mean the internet is cool and all, but our fantastic civilisation can't manage to use it to coordinate a meaningful response to the existential crisis of our era...that it's inducing itself, at an ever-accelerating rate. Capitalism has yielded a system that's accidentally optimizing for a dystopia of impersonal fractious hate, surveillance, psychic manipulation, and social isolation. So I think many people would be quite happy to see this system dismantled. Unfortunately I fear that the subsequent system is going to be even worse :/
  - methehack 7y ago
    "we deserve it" is a moral condemnation of our collective failure and its causes, not a statement of hatred. I think our civilization is fantastic, bracketing perhaps the last 3 or so years. It may not last the night, but it gives a lovely light.
- chrisco255 7y ago
  Sigh, it's this kind of response that makes me convinced you have no arguments to the contrary. Rice yields are up 40% since 1988: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyl... Corn's up 60%: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyl... Wheat is up 48% since '88: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/wwyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/wwyld.... Cattle inventory looks steady: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Cattle/inv.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Cattle/inv.php
  - methehack 7y ago
    Just because it's sunny today, doesn't mean you should plan a picnic for tomorrow if all the forecasts say 100% rain. Will it rain? True, we don't _really_ know. Enjoy your sausages, friend! I'm sure they'll be plenty to go around.
    - chrisco255 7y ago
      What kind of argument is this? I give factual data showing that since 1988, crop yields are up significantly in the face of all this supposedly catastrophic CO2 emissions. And why wouldn't they be? Plants thrive on CO2. Plants grow faster with higher levels of CO2. Greenhouses literally have CO2 pumped into them to enable more rapid crop growth. The doomsday scenario about humanity's odds in the face of climate change are based on nothing rational. The water cycle that the planet has enabled for the past billion plus years isn't going to undergo any drastic changes. There will be plenty of rice, wheat, corn, and every other crop to go along with my sausage, my friend. For decades to come, short of a meteor impact or sudden increase in volcanic activity.
  - yongjik 7y ago
    This is the equivalent of measuring a SV company's financials by the number of different snacks in its microkitchen. Sure, it will be stable, or even improving, until one day (if we are unlucky) it will catastrophically collapse. If we want to figure out whether we'll be lucky, we'll have to look at actual figures (i.e., balance sheets) predicting the company's future, and it's not looking good.
- perfunctory 7y ago
  Please don't. This response is a tiny minority.
  - methehack 7y ago
    Tiny yet somehow dominant.