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That's kind of what I was thinking. We don't even need to technically run out of oil. We just need to reach some threshold where life as we know it is no longer

That's kind of what I was thinking. We don't even need to technically run out of oil. We just need to reach some threshold where life as we know it is no longer feasible and the world is forced to make drastic changes. People will have to move around closer to their work so they can bike or walk. Possibly take only a monthly trip to gather food and other things from the store. Air travel would be limited to more permanent immigration and probably the ultra wealthy of course. I wonder how many decades we have left until this point.

rtkwe 7y ago
> People will have to move around closer to their work so they can bike or walk. The corollary to that is people will either be more locked into whatever job they're at because they need somewhere close to home or people will have to move much more often, meaning probably much more renting than home owning. On the other hand it might revive the idea of pensions and unions because people would stay at jobs longer since it would be harder to change jobs (or it would just lead to worse conditions because workers have less choice, the way it would fall kind of balances on a knife's edge here).
- seren 7y ago
  Ideally, with the rise of work from home, you should not have to be physically next to your job for a lots of office work. The other aspect if that if people can essentially travel less because of the transportation cost, there should be more hyper local services. So it should create more local jobs. That being said, assuming it will ever happen, it won't probably be a smooth transition, and there will be winners and losers.
  - rtkwe 7y ago
    True, but work from home is only applicable to a portion of the population and job market and as a rough estimate judging by industry [0] ~50-60% of jobs require you to be in person just by their nature, the only sectors that could approach 100% work from home are Information, Financial activities, and Professional and business services. Some like local, state, and federal government could partially go work from home but there are a lot of security concerns with moving some portions of that work out of a controlled offices into people's homes around PII and other secret information. [0] https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-...

rtkwe 7y ago

> People will have to move around closer to their work so they can bike or walk. The corollary to that is people will either be more locked into whatever job they're at because they need somewhere close to home or people will have to move much more often, meaning probably much more renting than home owning. On the other hand it might revive the idea of pensions and unions because people would stay at jobs longer since it would be harder to change jobs (or it would just lead to worse conditions because workers have less choice, the way it would fall kind of balances on a knife's edge here).

seren 7y ago
Ideally, with the rise of work from home, you should not have to be physically next to your job for a lots of office work. The other aspect if that if people can essentially travel less because of the transportation cost, there should be more hyper local services. So it should create more local jobs. That being said, assuming it will ever happen, it won't probably be a smooth transition, and there will be winners and losers.
- rtkwe 7y ago
  True, but work from home is only applicable to a portion of the population and job market and as a rough estimate judging by industry [0] ~50-60% of jobs require you to be in person just by their nature, the only sectors that could approach 100% work from home are Information, Financial activities, and Professional and business services. Some like local, state, and federal government could partially go work from home but there are a lot of security concerns with moving some portions of that work out of a controlled offices into people's homes around PII and other secret information. [0] https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-...