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Not sure what the HK protesters endgame is here. It's unthinkable that China would step down. If anything, they are forcing China to take direct action, because

Not sure what the HK protesters endgame is here. It's unthinkable that China would step down. If anything, they are forcing China to take direct action, because if they let HK do its own thing, it won't end there for China.

dustinmoris 7y ago
Agreed. I don't think that HK have an actual plan here. They just protest for the sake of protesting. China will never step down and if anything HK makes it really really easy for China to claim more control now over HK because HK proves itself to be not in control of its citizen. China is the most important market in the world, no other country will intervene with China, especially not given that the largest country in this world - Russia - would always back China in a geopolitical conflict, so nobody has the balls to challenge Russia and China at once for good reasons. EDIT: Besides that, I am pretty confident that the media makes it look a lot worse than it actually is too. I've been to China and Hong Kong. In China people looked relaxed, spent time relaxing in parks and socialising. I went to Hong Kong and it was unbearable crammed, people were stressed and over worked and there was no escape from the hamster wheel. No wonder mainland Chinese have little sympathy for HK.
- throwaway2048 7y ago
  Luckily, for their own sake the people of Hong Kong aren't cowardly and acquiescing to the loss of their freedom. Letting China get away with dominating Hong Kong isn't going to do them 1 tiny iota of good long term, if they ever hope to make a stand, the time is now.
  - cdmckay 7y ago
    Or maybe the people in China are happy with their system? Not sure how that makes them cowards.
  - barry-cotter 7y ago
    > Luckily, for their own sake the people of Hong Kong aren't cowardly and acquiescing to the loss of their freedom. Luckily how? They’re going to lose. If they want freedom they’re going to have to leave China for it, emigrate. All the protest isn’t going to buy them victory. The CPC isn’t going to allow Hong Kong to publicly defeat it; that would be domestically politically disruptive. They’d rather abrogate the one country two systems agreement and just abolish the SAR’s freedoms altogether.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - pishpash 7y ago
    Nah, they don't really think anything will happen to them in HK. While admirable in certain respects, they are not even taking half the risk that Tian'anmen Square students took, hiding behind their masks.
- loriverkutya 7y ago
  > I've been to China and Hong Kong. In China people looked relaxed, spent time relaxing in parks and socialising. I assume you did not visited Xinjiang where Uyghurs are not really relaxing in parks.
  - rado 7y ago
    His point stands when you compare the streets of the major cities to the onslaught of Western propaganda that ignores everyday life. Propaganda against "communism" which just isn't there. A large portion of the lawmakers in Beijing are industrialists.
    - icebraining 7y ago
      Can you point to some representative examples of that onslaught of Western propaganda against communism in China?
      - rado 7y ago
        WP, NYT, BBC etc – mostly negative articles. It's like nothing outside of a few contention points exists over there. It's ridiculous.
  - nobody0 7y ago
    Have you visited there then? What I know is there haven't been major terrorist attacks for quite a few years.
- EliRivers 7y ago
  In China people looked relaxed, spent time relaxing in parks and socialising. I went to Hong Kong and it was unbearable crammed, people were stressed and over worked and there was no escape from the hamster wheel. No wonder mainland Chinese have little sympathy for HK. I don't follow. If life in China is so nice and life in HK is so stressed and unbearable, wouldn't the people of mainland China have more sympathy for HK?
  - kitsune_ 7y ago
    Why would they? You need a pretty convincing story to justify protests that disrupt 'normal' life, especially to mainlanders who saw a miraculous improvement of their living standards in their life time. It's pretty easy to exploit the scenes of protestors throwing a Chinese flag into the sea and drumming up a patriotic sentiment with it.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- krig 7y ago
  You realise that you don't see dissent in China because dissent is a death sentence there?
  - xhruso00 7y ago
    There are people on HN that has never been to China neither Hong Kong and they simply downvote cause they only think. True experience of being harassed in China for being white is something they have never experienced.
Darmody 7y ago
So they should stay at home and accept anything that comes from China?
- barking 7y ago
  I thought they should have stopped the protests when the administration suspended the extradition bill. But then again as it is, people are disappearing from HK and reappearing in Chinese jails, so maybe they are right to push on. It's hard to see them winning though.
  - eric-hu 7y ago
    The protesters announced that suspension seemed like a ploy to wait for a time when the public lost focus and reintroduce it again later. It's a pretty legitimate concern IMO.
    - barking 7y ago
      I can understand that, I fear they are fighting a losing battle though. I listened to a commentator over the weekend talking about this whole business. He said that China have very many economic levers they can apply to HK to get their way and that military force is still a very distant option. The first thing that will happen is that Carrie Lam will be pushed aside and replaced with someone more hardline. They won't do it now because it would look like a victory for the protesters.
- barry-cotter 7y ago
  No, do something that has a chance of helping them, their friends and their families and start the process of emigration. The Chinese government is no more going to back down now than they were in 1989. They have much less sentimental attachment to the people of Hong Kong than to the students who protested then. The PRC will absolutely send in the People’s Liberation Army to occupy Hong Kong if that’s the only way to restore order with them in charge. They’d prefer a broken, bowed and destroyed Hong Kong with them in charge to anything that looks like them losing.
hvidgaard 7y ago
In that case, they force China to show its real intentions. Most of the world already know, but getting them to, by action, admit it publicly would be a victory for the protesters. Not that it will save the HK they live in.
- cdmckay 7y ago
  China has already stated their real intentions. After 50 years of autonomy, there will be no 1 country, 2 systems. They stated this when they took over control of HK and Macau. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems
  - hvidgaard 7y ago
    From the very first paragraph of your link > Under the principle, each of the two regions could continue to have its own governmental system, legal, economic and financial affairs, including trade relations with foreign countries. Yet they're trying to pass a law that essentially allow China to extradite people in HK to mainland China, for any reason mainland China makes up. That is not 1 country, 2 systems as the legal system in mainland China can dictate what people they want extradited from HK. Even the EU have made a formal complaint against the law. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-eu/eu-lodges-formal-diplomatic-note-against-contentious-hong-kong-extradition-bill-idUSKCN1SU0OS https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-eu/e...
    - history_push 7y ago
      There's no evidence that China makes up the law. The HK government draft this law to extradite a criminal who commits murder in Taiwan. The law also excludes a bunch of crimes.
    - cdmckay 7y ago
      My impression would be that China isn't going to flip a switch after 50 years and suddenly switch to the Chinese system. I would imagine they would do it gradually like they're doing now.
yulaow 7y ago
What's the alternative? China is already taking direct action to control HK more tightly, all HK citizens can do is rise awareness via protests, push forward their political ideology and hope for the best. China will probably crack down on them anyway, but they could still reinforce the vast number of regional separatists present in various areas of the nation, and sooner or later they could bring down the whole despotic government (or not, but it's worth trying).
qwsxyh 7y ago
I would imagine their end game is "civil disruption".
incognitanon 7y ago
I am a Hongkonger. I think the protesters have shifted their target to HK airport because of its value in logistics and tourism. The airport is also a place with lots of visitors, who may be the potential witnesses if HK police did anything unreasonable.
mytailorisrich 7y ago
This year is the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen protests and the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China (to be celebrated on October 1st). In January the Presidential election will also take place in Taiwan. And, of course, there is also the tense situation between China and the US at the moment. We can imagine a lot of scenarios and competing interests at play here. Forcing China to take direct action may indeed be the goal of some of these interests, and China knows it.
- pishpash 7y ago
  Well fuck me if there is no organization here. The longer this goes on, the more it seems strategically planned and logistically organized well beyond the capability of naive 17-year-olds.
dnh44 7y ago
They’re forcing China to change their current strategy which was to slowly and quietly impose their sovereignty. They’re putting China into a position where there are no good moves. Maybe we’ll see a unilateral declaration of independence.
bsaul 7y ago
To look at potential endgames, one needs to look back at history and see how people protesting for more freedom against dictatorial regimes have gone ( either through independance, or regime change). French revolution was a blood bath, soviet union collapsed after 80 years for economical reasons (among other things), and i don’t know of any independance gained without some kind of military conflict involved. My best bet for HK would be if someone living there could release massive financial information about china’s largest companies proving most of them are fraudulent (if that’s the case), and cause a major economical meltdown ( hoping for a regime change in china itself)... But that means aiming for the head, which means you only get one chance.

dustinmoris 7y ago

Agreed. I don't think that HK have an actual plan here. They just protest for the sake of protesting. China will never step down and if anything HK makes it really really easy for China to claim more control now over HK because HK proves itself to be not in control of its citizen. China is the most important market in the world, no other country will intervene with China, especially not given that the largest country in this world - Russia - would always back China in a geopolitical conflict, so nobody has the balls to challenge Russia and China at once for good reasons. EDIT: Besides that, I am pretty confident that the media makes it look a lot worse than it actually is too. I've been to China and Hong Kong. In China people looked relaxed, spent time relaxing in parks and socialising. I went to Hong Kong and it was unbearable crammed, people were stressed and over worked and there was no escape from the hamster wheel. No wonder mainland Chinese have little sympathy for HK.

throwaway2048 7y ago
Luckily, for their own sake the people of Hong Kong aren't cowardly and acquiescing to the loss of their freedom. Letting China get away with dominating Hong Kong isn't going to do them 1 tiny iota of good long term, if they ever hope to make a stand, the time is now.
- cdmckay 7y ago
  Or maybe the people in China are happy with their system? Not sure how that makes them cowards.
- barry-cotter 7y ago
  > Luckily, for their own sake the people of Hong Kong aren't cowardly and acquiescing to the loss of their freedom. Luckily how? They’re going to lose. If they want freedom they’re going to have to leave China for it, emigrate. All the protest isn’t going to buy them victory. The CPC isn’t going to allow Hong Kong to publicly defeat it; that would be domestically politically disruptive. They’d rather abrogate the one country two systems agreement and just abolish the SAR’s freedoms altogether.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- pishpash 7y ago
  Nah, they don't really think anything will happen to them in HK. While admirable in certain respects, they are not even taking half the risk that Tian'anmen Square students took, hiding behind their masks.
loriverkutya 7y ago
> I've been to China and Hong Kong. In China people looked relaxed, spent time relaxing in parks and socialising. I assume you did not visited Xinjiang where Uyghurs are not really relaxing in parks.
- rado 7y ago
  His point stands when you compare the streets of the major cities to the onslaught of Western propaganda that ignores everyday life. Propaganda against "communism" which just isn't there. A large portion of the lawmakers in Beijing are industrialists.
  - icebraining 7y ago
    Can you point to some representative examples of that onslaught of Western propaganda against communism in China?
    - rado 7y ago
      WP, NYT, BBC etc – mostly negative articles. It's like nothing outside of a few contention points exists over there. It's ridiculous.
- nobody0 7y ago
  Have you visited there then? What I know is there haven't been major terrorist attacks for quite a few years.
EliRivers 7y ago
In China people looked relaxed, spent time relaxing in parks and socialising. I went to Hong Kong and it was unbearable crammed, people were stressed and over worked and there was no escape from the hamster wheel. No wonder mainland Chinese have little sympathy for HK. I don't follow. If life in China is so nice and life in HK is so stressed and unbearable, wouldn't the people of mainland China have more sympathy for HK?
- kitsune_ 7y ago
  Why would they? You need a pretty convincing story to justify protests that disrupt 'normal' life, especially to mainlanders who saw a miraculous improvement of their living standards in their life time. It's pretty easy to exploit the scenes of protestors throwing a Chinese flag into the sea and drumming up a patriotic sentiment with it.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
krig 7y ago
You realise that you don't see dissent in China because dissent is a death sentence there?
- xhruso00 7y ago
  There are people on HN that has never been to China neither Hong Kong and they simply downvote cause they only think. True experience of being harassed in China for being white is something they have never experienced.

Darmody 7y ago

So they should stay at home and accept anything that comes from China?

barking 7y ago
I thought they should have stopped the protests when the administration suspended the extradition bill. But then again as it is, people are disappearing from HK and reappearing in Chinese jails, so maybe they are right to push on. It's hard to see them winning though.
- eric-hu 7y ago
  The protesters announced that suspension seemed like a ploy to wait for a time when the public lost focus and reintroduce it again later. It's a pretty legitimate concern IMO.
  - barking 7y ago
    I can understand that, I fear they are fighting a losing battle though. I listened to a commentator over the weekend talking about this whole business. He said that China have very many economic levers they can apply to HK to get their way and that military force is still a very distant option. The first thing that will happen is that Carrie Lam will be pushed aside and replaced with someone more hardline. They won't do it now because it would look like a victory for the protesters.
barry-cotter 7y ago
No, do something that has a chance of helping them, their friends and their families and start the process of emigration. The Chinese government is no more going to back down now than they were in 1989. They have much less sentimental attachment to the people of Hong Kong than to the students who protested then. The PRC will absolutely send in the People’s Liberation Army to occupy Hong Kong if that’s the only way to restore order with them in charge. They’d prefer a broken, bowed and destroyed Hong Kong with them in charge to anything that looks like them losing.

hvidgaard 7y ago

In that case, they force China to show its real intentions. Most of the world already know, but getting them to, by action, admit it publicly would be a victory for the protesters. Not that it will save the HK they live in.

cdmckay 7y ago
China has already stated their real intentions. After 50 years of autonomy, there will be no 1 country, 2 systems. They stated this when they took over control of HK and Macau. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems
- hvidgaard 7y ago
  From the very first paragraph of your link > Under the principle, each of the two regions could continue to have its own governmental system, legal, economic and financial affairs, including trade relations with foreign countries. Yet they're trying to pass a law that essentially allow China to extradite people in HK to mainland China, for any reason mainland China makes up. That is not 1 country, 2 systems as the legal system in mainland China can dictate what people they want extradited from HK. Even the EU have made a formal complaint against the law. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-eu/eu-lodges-formal-diplomatic-note-against-contentious-hong-kong-extradition-bill-idUSKCN1SU0OS https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-eu/e...
  - history_push 7y ago
    There's no evidence that China makes up the law. The HK government draft this law to extradite a criminal who commits murder in Taiwan. The law also excludes a bunch of crimes.
  - cdmckay 7y ago
    My impression would be that China isn't going to flip a switch after 50 years and suddenly switch to the Chinese system. I would imagine they would do it gradually like they're doing now.

yulaow 7y ago

What's the alternative? China is already taking direct action to control HK more tightly, all HK citizens can do is rise awareness via protests, push forward their political ideology and hope for the best. China will probably crack down on them anyway, but they could still reinforce the vast number of regional separatists present in various areas of the nation, and sooner or later they could bring down the whole despotic government (or not, but it's worth trying).

qwsxyh 7y ago

I would imagine their end game is "civil disruption".

incognitanon 7y ago

I am a Hongkonger. I think the protesters have shifted their target to HK airport because of its value in logistics and tourism. The airport is also a place with lots of visitors, who may be the potential witnesses if HK police did anything unreasonable.

mytailorisrich 7y ago

This year is the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen protests and the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China (to be celebrated on October 1st). In January the Presidential election will also take place in Taiwan. And, of course, there is also the tense situation between China and the US at the moment. We can imagine a lot of scenarios and competing interests at play here. Forcing China to take direct action may indeed be the goal of some of these interests, and China knows it.

pishpash 7y ago
Well fuck me if there is no organization here. The longer this goes on, the more it seems strategically planned and logistically organized well beyond the capability of naive 17-year-olds.

dnh44 7y ago

They’re forcing China to change their current strategy which was to slowly and quietly impose their sovereignty. They’re putting China into a position where there are no good moves. Maybe we’ll see a unilateral declaration of independence.

bsaul 7y ago

To look at potential endgames, one needs to look back at history and see how people protesting for more freedom against dictatorial regimes have gone ( either through independance, or regime change). French revolution was a blood bath, soviet union collapsed after 80 years for economical reasons (among other things), and i don’t know of any independance gained without some kind of military conflict involved. My best bet for HK would be if someone living there could release massive financial information about china’s largest companies proving most of them are fraudulent (if that’s the case), and cause a major economical meltdown ( hoping for a regime change in china itself)... But that means aiming for the head, which means you only get one chance.