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If this prediction turns out to be true, it would be a real boon for reducing carbon emissions. Changing from 7% to 40% of electrical generation is a big deal.
by dwheeler 7y ago
If this prediction turns out to be true, it would be a real boon for reducing carbon emissions. Changing from 7% to 40% of electrical generation is a big deal. I'm sure it's not enough, but it sounds like a start.
- kragen 7y agoIt's pretty much guaranteed: even current photovoltaic pricing, let alone another factor of ten down the learning curve, means energy in the daytime is super cheap to free. This creates an immense market opportunity for utility-scale storage.
- Brakenshire 7y agoAnd for finding ways of using energy at peak times. I could imagine everyone charging their cars at work if it turns out the electricity is cheap at that time.
- kragen 7y agoAbsolutely! I think demand response is going to be even bigger than storage; see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20664835 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20664835 for more thoughts on this.
- tim333 7y agoIt seems a little conservative to me - I'd expect it to do that earlier than 2040.
- adrianN 7y agoLet's hope we didn't just replace 40% of electricity with renewables by 2040, or we can probably kiss civilization as we know it goodbye. We need to reduce global carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 if we want a fighting chance of staying below 2°. That's much more than just electricity.
- eloff 7y agoI think the chances off staying under 2 degrees are slim to none. But that doesn't mean kissing civilization goodbye either. And for Canada and Russia it will probably be a net positive.