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I think the issue is that people got used to getting a lot of the content they wanted to watch for around $10/mo. Originally, no one realized that streaming wo
by mdasen 7y ago
I think the issue is that people got used to getting a lot of the content they wanted to watch for around $10/mo. Originally, no one realized that streaming would be such a huge thing. Owners licensed content to Netflix at cheap prices just to see Netflix streaming take over. Now they're wising up to the fact that they can't just give away their content.
Let's say that we did have a law that would force content owners to license their content. Let's say that the royalty rate would be $3 per movie stream. Companies like Netflix would have to hugely increase their monthly fees. 4 movie streams a month and you've blown through their fee considering hardware, electricity, credit card processing fees, etc. Likewise, if TV episodes cost $1 per stream, people would very quickly blow through the $13/mo fee that Netflix charges. Plus, with more content, people would watch a lot more.
Ultimately, what people want is a streaming service with most of what they want to watch at a fraction of the price that people used to pay for content. It used to be that people would pay $75 for cable tv or satellite plus $10-20/mo for one or two premium channels plus $4 every time they wanted to rent a movie from Blockbuster. Now people want that same experience for one $15 fee. I mean, would you sign up for a streaming service that had 80% of the content you wanted for $100+/mo? Do you think most people would?
Netflix and competitors want to encourage you to binge on their service now. How does that change if they have to pay compulsory license fees for every stream? What happens to content if they're getting paid a set fee-per-stream rather than a negotiated rate? We've seen in music that songs have been getting shorter because the royalty rates are per-stream not per-minute and the shorter your songs, the more royalties you'll get. We've seen a lot of clickbait video on YouTube and, frankly, Netflix is putting up more and more cheap-to-make content, knocking off every random baking show and the like. With a compulsory license, Netflix would want to make it hard to watch the shows that they had to pay-per-stream. Would they even want to make them available at all?
I think we had a few year period where content owners didn't realize how much streaming would substitute for other watching modes and made good deals for Netflix. I think any compulsory license would be higher than a service could go for at current rates. You're talking about getting rid of other large revenue streams via this compulsory licensing. Right now, they can give you a bunch of content as all-you-can-eat and then hold on to their premium content and get a lot of people to pay a separate charge. For example, I can stream a lot of Disney content, but it looks like Avengers Endgame will only be available for purchase separately. If you're getting rid of that, they aren't going to want to give up that money.
Heck, even in music, we see that the compulsory licensing rates are high to the point that places like Apple Music want to negotiate revenue-sharing agreements rather than pay the compulsory license. If you're paying $10/mo for a streaming service and they're paying $0.091 per stream and you're listening in the car on a 20-minute commute twice a day, that's 10 songs per day and 300 songs per month costing them $27.3. And that's a short commute and not taking into consideration errands, workouts, listening at work, etc.
So, even in music, the compulsory license isn't what most streaming services are relying on. They've negotiated a cut-of-revenue system to compensate artists rather than paying $0.091/stream.
I think the problem is that we want to pay the same ~$10 fee for our video entertainment, but video entertainment costs a lot more to produce and doesn't have the same re-watch/listen potential as music. A song doesn't cost $350M to write and record and, ultimately, a good song can provide hours of listening enjoyment just like the movie. It's easy to accept a cut of $10/mo when your product is a lot cheaper to produce. The problem we face is that video producers want more than a cut of $15/mo due to the cost of producing their product, but we don't want to pay more. We had the glory days of Netflix having access to cheap content. We don't want that to end.
You're not wrong about the feeling of gaming you. The problem is that people don't want to spend $100/mo, but they want all the content from services that used to cost that. So they're trying to find ways to retain the revenue while offering enough of what people want to a broad audience. They know people will balk at a $100/mo service even if many of them have been paying for cable and HBO and such. So they're trying to figure out what people will accept. Frankly, Netflix is doing that too: they're trying to figure out what content they can produce cheaply to get people to stick around without them having to license content.
I think the ultimate problem is that the video content we want costs more to make than the music content we want.
- wolco 7y agoI think we are going to find out the content we really want is cheaper and more fragmented. Movies provide some of the most wasteful methods of creating 1 1/2 of content. A movie that costs 100 million needs 100 million people to pay 1 dollar to break even. Cheaper is going to be the next wave.