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Why do you consider cheap solar not a breakthrough? If I 30-year mortgaged some solar cells, I could put them on my house right now and save $20 a month on net

Why do you consider cheap solar not a breakthrough? If I 30-year mortgaged some solar cells, I could put them on my house right now and save $20 a month on net because of reduced electricity costs

gmueckl 7y ago
Well, in the grand scheme of things, photovoltaic cells were developed back when nuclear reactors began to appear as well. They are not a new technology, just something that is getting optimized diligently now. In that regard, the parent post is technically correct. But that view is focused too much on big shifts in the market, if you ask me. Smaller, more incremental steps have added up to amazing things around wind and solar power.
- ThomPete 7y ago
  Oh, it's definitely amazing relative to where it was, just not to where it needs to be to compete. Solar and wind is less than 1% of world energy consumption and is not expected to be more than 3-4% in 2040. Energy is not a product/market problem it's a physics problem and we haven't had any major breakthroughs in that space for a long long time. https://www.iea.org/weo/?fbclid=IwAR3eH1AFcRSPSEit8JINLCMvE_UmZAsNNdxRRpIepIGqCz_rILNEHHwLtNw https://www.iea.org/weo/?fbclid=IwAR3eH1AFcRSPSEit8JINLCMvE_...
  - lukev 7y ago
    This... doesn't have to be the case. Some markets already have way higher renewable penetration. Solar and wind represented about 20% of all generation in California in 2018 (https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_sys...). In the UK this year, solar and wind are almost 25% of generated electricity (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/811974/Renewables_June_2019.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...) Incremental improvement and economic forces do matter. Solar is now cheaper than coal in many climates, and we are seeing the effects. Of course, there are still many problems to be solved. But we're also working on incrementally on solutions to those. For example, battery cost is falling precipitously. "grid scale battery" was not a thing a decade ago, now you see installations popping up regularly. I'd like to see cold fusion as much as the next guy, but dismissing incremental progress is foolish.
    - cestith 7y ago
      Wind's about 20% in Texas, too, and growing. http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/181766/IntGenbyFuel2019.xlsx http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/181766/IntGenbyFuel20... The state produces by far the most electricity of any state, too. It's almost twice as much as Florida. https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX Unfortunately it's also a huge petroleum and natural gas producer. About half of the energy used in the state is for industrial use, much of it for the oil and gas industries. On the bright side, natural gas is displacing coal in the meantime while solar and wind are not replacing it fast enough. It needs to get better, but things could be much worse.
    - ThomPete 7y ago
      You are talking about electricity, not energy. Electricity is only ~20% of the entire energy usage as far as I remember.
zdragnar 7y ago
That depends on where you are. I asked around a bit, and solar is a net negative for me (cost-wise). The only option one company gave me required converting the roof of my garage to a flat surface (from a standard peak), which is utterly impractical around here.
ThomPete 7y ago
And you can use them to power your watch perfectly fine too. That doesn't mean it will work at scale for society which is the primary issue. The key thing to look for is energy density as that will be more likely to give society a bang for the buck. Distributing solar cells out with the capacity factor of solar isn't economically feasible for society and neither possible as a main source of energy. Nuclear and Hydro to some extent Thermal none of them are in vogue.
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  These are arbitrary metrics, why does energy density matter for anywhere which has the space? Even in Northern latitudes and high density countries you can generate a lot of electricity with a nominal amount of land. All the more if they can be fitted on rooftops. For sunny places near deserts it can absolutely provide a big percentage, even a dominant percentage of power. The main issue is matching demand to supply, production density is a distant concern.
  - ThomPete 7y ago
    Energy density isn't arbitrary. It normally means something can be used in compact form (batteries, oil, gasoline, coal, uranium) and deliver energy at will. Look at the capacity factor of wind and solar, add to that the huge areas they need and the fact that they are intermittent and you start to get a glimpse of the problem. This is neither economically nor technically feasible. You can't generate as much as you think and you can't do it at a cost that makes it feasible generally for society not even with lowered cost. Currently, we are talking 1% of world energy consumption not expected to be much more than 3-4% in 2040 and that's despite huge investments and all the political goodwill you can ask for [1] Keep in mind that the numbers you normally see displayed is for electricity not for energy. Electricity is only a subset of energy. Furthermore, investments in solar and wind is decreasing especially when you take china out of the equation. [2] And again. Lab results or theoretically possible advantages most of the times aren't feasible in reality and at scale. [1] https://www.iea.org/weo/?fbclid=IwAR3eH1AFcRSPSEit8JINLCMvE_UmZAsNNdxRRpIepIGqCz_rILNEHHwLtNw https://www.iea.org/weo/?fbclid=IwAR3eH1AFcRSPSEit8JINLCMvE_... [2] https://www.globalresearch.ca/growth-renewables-stalled-investment-falling/5678889?fbclid=IwAR0Sd3mRotIjpUDmwO-6M1t9lQ4buvB8BW8ceQBlJesRA5b4rgUW23Af7FU https://www.globalresearch.ca/growth-renewables-stalled-inve...

Why do you consider cheap solar not a breakthrough? If I 30-year mortgaged some solar cells, I could put them on my house right now and save $20 a month on net because of reduced electricity costs

gmueckl 7y ago

Well, in the grand scheme of things, photovoltaic cells were developed back when nuclear reactors began to appear as well. They are not a new technology, just something that is getting optimized diligently now. In that regard, the parent post is technically correct. But that view is focused too much on big shifts in the market, if you ask me. Smaller, more incremental steps have added up to amazing things around wind and solar power.

ThomPete 7y ago
Oh, it's definitely amazing relative to where it was, just not to where it needs to be to compete. Solar and wind is less than 1% of world energy consumption and is not expected to be more than 3-4% in 2040. Energy is not a product/market problem it's a physics problem and we haven't had any major breakthroughs in that space for a long long time. https://www.iea.org/weo/?fbclid=IwAR3eH1AFcRSPSEit8JINLCMvE_UmZAsNNdxRRpIepIGqCz_rILNEHHwLtNw https://www.iea.org/weo/?fbclid=IwAR3eH1AFcRSPSEit8JINLCMvE_...
- lukev 7y ago
  This... doesn't have to be the case. Some markets already have way higher renewable penetration. Solar and wind represented about 20% of all generation in California in 2018 (https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_sys...). In the UK this year, solar and wind are almost 25% of generated electricity (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/811974/Renewables_June_2019.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...) Incremental improvement and economic forces do matter. Solar is now cheaper than coal in many climates, and we are seeing the effects. Of course, there are still many problems to be solved. But we're also working on incrementally on solutions to those. For example, battery cost is falling precipitously. "grid scale battery" was not a thing a decade ago, now you see installations popping up regularly. I'd like to see cold fusion as much as the next guy, but dismissing incremental progress is foolish.
  - cestith 7y ago
    Wind's about 20% in Texas, too, and growing. http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/181766/IntGenbyFuel2019.xlsx http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/181766/IntGenbyFuel20... The state produces by far the most electricity of any state, too. It's almost twice as much as Florida. https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX Unfortunately it's also a huge petroleum and natural gas producer. About half of the energy used in the state is for industrial use, much of it for the oil and gas industries. On the bright side, natural gas is displacing coal in the meantime while solar and wind are not replacing it fast enough. It needs to get better, but things could be much worse.
  - ThomPete 7y ago
    You are talking about electricity, not energy. Electricity is only ~20% of the entire energy usage as far as I remember.

zdragnar 7y ago

That depends on where you are. I asked around a bit, and solar is a net negative for me (cost-wise). The only option one company gave me required converting the roof of my garage to a flat surface (from a standard peak), which is utterly impractical around here.

ThomPete 7y ago

And you can use them to power your watch perfectly fine too. That doesn't mean it will work at scale for society which is the primary issue. The key thing to look for is energy density as that will be more likely to give society a bang for the buck. Distributing solar cells out with the capacity factor of solar isn't economically feasible for society and neither possible as a main source of energy. Nuclear and Hydro to some extent Thermal none of them are in vogue.

Brakenshire 7y ago
These are arbitrary metrics, why does energy density matter for anywhere which has the space? Even in Northern latitudes and high density countries you can generate a lot of electricity with a nominal amount of land. All the more if they can be fitted on rooftops. For sunny places near deserts it can absolutely provide a big percentage, even a dominant percentage of power. The main issue is matching demand to supply, production density is a distant concern.
- ThomPete 7y ago
  Energy density isn't arbitrary. It normally means something can be used in compact form (batteries, oil, gasoline, coal, uranium) and deliver energy at will. Look at the capacity factor of wind and solar, add to that the huge areas they need and the fact that they are intermittent and you start to get a glimpse of the problem. This is neither economically nor technically feasible. You can't generate as much as you think and you can't do it at a cost that makes it feasible generally for society not even with lowered cost. Currently, we are talking 1% of world energy consumption not expected to be much more than 3-4% in 2040 and that's despite huge investments and all the political goodwill you can ask for [1] Keep in mind that the numbers you normally see displayed is for electricity not for energy. Electricity is only a subset of energy. Furthermore, investments in solar and wind is decreasing especially when you take china out of the equation. [2] And again. Lab results or theoretically possible advantages most of the times aren't feasible in reality and at scale. [1] https://www.iea.org/weo/?fbclid=IwAR3eH1AFcRSPSEit8JINLCMvE_UmZAsNNdxRRpIepIGqCz_rILNEHHwLtNw https://www.iea.org/weo/?fbclid=IwAR3eH1AFcRSPSEit8JINLCMvE_... [2] https://www.globalresearch.ca/growth-renewables-stalled-investment-falling/5678889?fbclid=IwAR0Sd3mRotIjpUDmwO-6M1t9lQ4buvB8BW8ceQBlJesRA5b4rgUW23Af7FU https://www.globalresearch.ca/growth-renewables-stalled-inve...