3 ms·

Yes, the market is perfect and infallible.

• whatshisface 7y ago
  Maybe not infallible, but most finance professionals have heard of these indicators. Isn't a it a bit hubristic to think that the HN front page will feature economic news that surprises wallstreet?
  • bduerst 7y ago
    No, because wall street maximizes profits and leaves individual investors holding the bag. You want to get in front of the herd, not be chasing it.
    • whatshisface 7y ago
      Right, but when the media reports on macro indicators they're doing it on bag time. Wall street has already seen the yield curves, and that is how they leave retail investors holding the bags. But now that everyone still in the market is holding an empty bag, the S&P accurately represents the value of the bag. It's not a bad deal today because the baggening already happened.
      • msmerberry 7y ago
        Right, assume everything is up 8% from where it is today, 3 years from today. The reality may be lower than higher, but unless you're taking on a ton of risk, you have an excellent chance at having more than you did today.
      • bduerst 7y ago
        The bag hasn't been passed yet. That's going to happen when the funds go through a sell-off. They know it too, which is why they're trading despite the indicators, because they're more plugged into the market info that will let them get off right before the cliff. Unless you're day trading, individuals should be trimming right now and increasing cash holdings, because the indicators available point to the sell off coming. You're welcome to try to run with the fund herd but they're better equipped and do it full time, meaning you'll be struggling to keep up with them. Better to get in front of the funds than chase them.