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I'm definitely happy to be corrected, but I am curious how you arrived at that conclusion based on the article. There is a long term upward trend in the ECS up
by throwaway5752 7y ago
I'm definitely happy to be corrected, but I am curious how you arrived at that conclusion based on the article.
There is a long term upward trend in the ECS upper bound, there is model convergence towards that new upper bound figure, and it agrees with recent satellite observations from CERES. I think this constitutes a fair amount of support that warrants my concern.
- Brakenshire 7y agoMainly from the section about not being sure whether it’s a model artifact. Don’t get me wrong, if that’s what emerges as the likely sensitivity I’ll change my mind happily, I’m just tired of people repeating doomsday scenarios and basing it on speculative work.
- throwaway5752 7y agoNope, my doomsday prediction are based on almost two decades of following the issue closely and some educational background that has overlap. But I'm not a climate scientist and I recognize that. But I do think you are understating the severity of this (all models trending up and observed changes that agree with the models)