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In the meantime in Finland, NE Russia and Baltics: "The average temperature over Europe in July 2019 was just above the 1981-2010 average for the month. It was

In the meantime in Finland, NE Russia and Baltics: "The average temperature over Europe in July 2019 was just above the 1981-2010 average for the month. It was warmer than normal over western Europe, except for south-western Iberia, but cooler than normal over the east of the continent, particularly the north-east. " [1] [1] https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2019 https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2...

Brakenshire 7y ago
You could just as well pick out unusually hot regions as well, the article is about a global average, it takes both these fluctuations around the mean into account. What matters is that the mean is increasing.
- aivisol 7y ago
  I was not trying to deny the average increase. Rather I wanted to point out that there are extremes which are becoming more pronounced on both ends. The July was extremely cold in NE Europe and even the map shows only few degrees below average, in real life it translated to nightly temperatures falling to almost freezing point several days in a row. And the August here is no better so far...
  - chewz 7y ago
    I had been using electric blanket July/August - quite unusual :-)
    - aivisol 7y ago
      The look outside the window right now is depressing :(
      - chewz 7y ago
        These Western Europeans will never understand what we must suffer here :-)
  - Brakenshire 7y ago
    Ah, I see. Is that definitely something which is happening, with good statistical evidence? Edit: I suppose this is to do with oscillations in the jet stream?
chewz 7y ago
Yes, we have had cold summer in Eastern part of Europe and heatwaves in Western Europe. Both are indirect result of climate change. Indirect because this summer had been result of jetstream change - the same circulation that had been sucking hot air to Western Europe had been also blowing cooled air into Eastern Europe. Actually it was fascinating to watch circulation daily... Try https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=30.27,48.78,1459 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/o... Unfortunately jetstream is still poorly understood and scientists debate results of changes in jetstream. There was a popular and well explained article in Financial Times. As it is behind paywall... > The impact of the jet stream on climate change, and whether it will shift in the future, is hotly debated by scientists. It is seen as one of the central issues that will determine how weather patterns across western Europe, in particular, will shift as the planet heats up. > “This is a critically important part of climate science, and one of the least well understood,” says Prof Williams. “We know the climate is getting warmer, and this is settled by now, but it is the consequences of that warming — like the jet stream — that we are just starting to explore.” > “We think the rapidly warming Arctic is making these wavy patterns happen more often, and as a result we are seeing weather patterns themselves become much more persistent,” she [ Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at Woods Hole Research Centre] adds, meaning that weather such as heat or storms can be trapped in place for longer. > Other scientists predict the opposite could happen: climate change could cause the jet stream to get stronger and move toward the poles. Atmospheric models — the complex simulations that run on supercomputers and forecast long-term weather and climate — tend to support this view. https://www.ft.com/content/591395fe-b761-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203 https://www.ft.com/content/591395fe-b761-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea...
- aivisol 7y ago
  Thank you for your detailed explanation. The visualisation you mentioned (by nullschool.net) is what I use regularly, however, without much understanding of climate dynamics.
  - chewz 7y ago
    Today we are back to normal West to East flow hence clouds, storms and rains. But during heatwave we had sort of omega shape (circulation) flow sucking hot air from Africa right up North (more or less France-West Germany) going up to Nordkap and returning South with cooled air. Watch air movement at 500 or 850 with temp or humidity overlay... I am not that smart myself. ICM UW has very enlightening daily commentaries. https://www.meteo.pl/komentarze/index1.php https://www.meteo.pl/komentarze/index1.php

Brakenshire 7y ago

You could just as well pick out unusually hot regions as well, the article is about a global average, it takes both these fluctuations around the mean into account. What matters is that the mean is increasing.

aivisol 7y ago
I was not trying to deny the average increase. Rather I wanted to point out that there are extremes which are becoming more pronounced on both ends. The July was extremely cold in NE Europe and even the map shows only few degrees below average, in real life it translated to nightly temperatures falling to almost freezing point several days in a row. And the August here is no better so far...
- chewz 7y ago
  I had been using electric blanket July/August - quite unusual :-)
  - aivisol 7y ago
    The look outside the window right now is depressing :(
    - chewz 7y ago
      These Western Europeans will never understand what we must suffer here :-)
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  Ah, I see. Is that definitely something which is happening, with good statistical evidence? Edit: I suppose this is to do with oscillations in the jet stream?

chewz 7y ago

Yes, we have had cold summer in Eastern part of Europe and heatwaves in Western Europe. Both are indirect result of climate change. Indirect because this summer had been result of jetstream change - the same circulation that had been sucking hot air to Western Europe had been also blowing cooled air into Eastern Europe. Actually it was fascinating to watch circulation daily... Try https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=30.27,48.78,1459 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/o... Unfortunately jetstream is still poorly understood and scientists debate results of changes in jetstream. There was a popular and well explained article in Financial Times. As it is behind paywall... > The impact of the jet stream on climate change, and whether it will shift in the future, is hotly debated by scientists. It is seen as one of the central issues that will determine how weather patterns across western Europe, in particular, will shift as the planet heats up. > “This is a critically important part of climate science, and one of the least well understood,” says Prof Williams. “We know the climate is getting warmer, and this is settled by now, but it is the consequences of that warming — like the jet stream — that we are just starting to explore.” > “We think the rapidly warming Arctic is making these wavy patterns happen more often, and as a result we are seeing weather patterns themselves become much more persistent,” she [ Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at Woods Hole Research Centre] adds, meaning that weather such as heat or storms can be trapped in place for longer. > Other scientists predict the opposite could happen: climate change could cause the jet stream to get stronger and move toward the poles. Atmospheric models — the complex simulations that run on supercomputers and forecast long-term weather and climate — tend to support this view. https://www.ft.com/content/591395fe-b761-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203 https://www.ft.com/content/591395fe-b761-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea...

aivisol 7y ago
Thank you for your detailed explanation. The visualisation you mentioned (by nullschool.net) is what I use regularly, however, without much understanding of climate dynamics.
- chewz 7y ago
  Today we are back to normal West to East flow hence clouds, storms and rains. But during heatwave we had sort of omega shape (circulation) flow sucking hot air from Africa right up North (more or less France-West Germany) going up to Nordkap and returning South with cooled air. Watch air movement at 500 or 850 with temp or humidity overlay... I am not that smart myself. ICM UW has very enlightening daily commentaries. https://www.meteo.pl/komentarze/index1.php https://www.meteo.pl/komentarze/index1.php