5 ms·

you are in for a nice surprise next year my friend

by backtobecks 7y ago

bestnameever 7y ago
can you elaborate? thanks.
- rapsey 7y ago
  The bull market has been long. The crash is inevitable to be within a year or two. Of course various doomsayers have been vocal for a long time, but things eventually must come down. When people like Ray Dalio are vocal about it there is something to it.
  - tracer4201 7y ago
    What’s different this time? In other words, how do you know the crash is inevitable within a year or two?
    - rapsey 7y ago
      There are lots of indicators of worldwide trade slowing down. In the tech world there has been a rush of IPOs, signalling that the private funds are running dry, and so on. Companies like Ray Dalios Bridgewater track these things better then anyone. When he says that their projections point to it then there is little doubt.
    - prewett 7y ago
      - There is a well-known business cycle that goes from boom to bust in about 7 - 10 years on average. - Unemployment is at multi-decade lows; if you look at FRED graphs the unemployment hits a low right before the recession. Of course, nobody knows how low it will go, but it can't go much lower than it is now. - Bond yields have inverted, which has been a reliable recession-in-one-year signal. - The trade war can't improve corporate earnings. - Maybe the trade war triggers something bad in the US and/or Chinese economy and we have another 1997. - Any one-time earnings juice from the tax cuts is over, so the year over year comparisons are harder. - The markets flipped out in Dec after the Fed raised rates (I think that's what it was) and dropped 20% in a week or two. The Fed made some conciliatory statements and the party was back on. The RMB appreciates by only a few percent, but over some psychological threshold of 7 RMB to 1 USD and the market flips out, dropping 3%. It feels to me like everyone is trying to pretend that the party is just getting started, but if you keep drinking, sooner or later you pass out. It's been 10 years, it's getting pretty late, people have to stop and go home sooner or later. Sooner or later something random is going to happen like in Dec and everyone is going to flip out. But this time they'll stay passed out for a while.
      - nguoi 7y ago
        >unemployment hits a low right before the recession You have your causal link the wrong way around
        WanderPanda 7y ago
        I want to see your do calculus for that one
        nguoi 7y ago
        Recessions make people lose their jobs
  - kccqzy 7y ago
    So? What if the market does crash? Just buy more index funds during the crash because after the crash the recovery is inevitable. If you are young (most HN commenters are), you can afford to wait for the recovery.
    - rapsey 7y ago
      I was replying on the question what is coming next year. What you are saying is completely correct as well.
    - paganel 7y ago
      > after the crash the recovery is inevitable It hasn't been inevitable in Japan after the early 1990s crash.
  - ac29 7y ago
    If you're so sure there will be a crash within 12-24 months, are you short in the market? Short with leverage?
jowday 7y ago
I think I remember seeing similar comments in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018... Snark aside, if your timeline is more than 10-15 years, why should you worry at all about recessions next year? On a long enough timeline, a recession is just a great buying opportunity.
- 0x8BADF00D 7y ago
  Did you miss 2001-2008? Or are you being purposefully deceptive.
  - joelx 7y ago
    Bezos appears to believe the market has peaked and has sold $3b in Amazon over the last week.
    - dredds 7y ago
      Are you certain it's nothing to do with the divorce or Blue Origin, etc?
    - melling 7y ago
      He sells stock every year. He still has over $100 billion in stock.
  - thaumasiotes 7y ago
    >> if your timeline is more than 10-15 years, why should you worry at all about recessions next year? On a long enough timeline, a recession is just a great buying opportunity. > Did you miss 2001-2008? Or are you being purposefully deceptive. This looks more like you being intentionally dishonest. I took DJIA figures from http://www.fedprimerate.com/dow-jones-industrial-average-history-djia.htm http://www.fedprimerate.com/dow-jones-industrial-average-his...: January 2000: 11,722.98 December 2001: 10,021.57 March 2003: 7,673.99 October 2006: 11,850.21 (beating the high of 1/2000) October 2007: 14,164.53 March 2009: 6,507.04 December 2010: 11,577.51 January 2015: 17,164.95 Here we have a 15-year period which starts at the high price before the period you "called out". What are we supposed to view the low points as, if not great buying opportunities? (Also, it's pretty apparent that 2001-2008 doesn't make sense conceptually as a single period.)
arwhatever 7y ago
What time and day?

you are in for a nice surprise next year my friend

bestnameever 7y ago

can you elaborate? thanks.

rapsey 7y ago
The bull market has been long. The crash is inevitable to be within a year or two. Of course various doomsayers have been vocal for a long time, but things eventually must come down. When people like Ray Dalio are vocal about it there is something to it.
- tracer4201 7y ago
  What’s different this time? In other words, how do you know the crash is inevitable within a year or two?
  - rapsey 7y ago
    There are lots of indicators of worldwide trade slowing down. In the tech world there has been a rush of IPOs, signalling that the private funds are running dry, and so on. Companies like Ray Dalios Bridgewater track these things better then anyone. When he says that their projections point to it then there is little doubt.
  - prewett 7y ago
    - There is a well-known business cycle that goes from boom to bust in about 7 - 10 years on average. - Unemployment is at multi-decade lows; if you look at FRED graphs the unemployment hits a low right before the recession. Of course, nobody knows how low it will go, but it can't go much lower than it is now. - Bond yields have inverted, which has been a reliable recession-in-one-year signal. - The trade war can't improve corporate earnings. - Maybe the trade war triggers something bad in the US and/or Chinese economy and we have another 1997. - Any one-time earnings juice from the tax cuts is over, so the year over year comparisons are harder. - The markets flipped out in Dec after the Fed raised rates (I think that's what it was) and dropped 20% in a week or two. The Fed made some conciliatory statements and the party was back on. The RMB appreciates by only a few percent, but over some psychological threshold of 7 RMB to 1 USD and the market flips out, dropping 3%. It feels to me like everyone is trying to pretend that the party is just getting started, but if you keep drinking, sooner or later you pass out. It's been 10 years, it's getting pretty late, people have to stop and go home sooner or later. Sooner or later something random is going to happen like in Dec and everyone is going to flip out. But this time they'll stay passed out for a while.
    - nguoi 7y ago
      >unemployment hits a low right before the recession You have your causal link the wrong way around
      - WanderPanda 7y ago
        I want to see your do calculus for that one
        nguoi 7y ago
        Recessions make people lose their jobs
- kccqzy 7y ago
  So? What if the market does crash? Just buy more index funds during the crash because after the crash the recovery is inevitable. If you are young (most HN commenters are), you can afford to wait for the recovery.
  - rapsey 7y ago
    I was replying on the question what is coming next year. What you are saying is completely correct as well.
  - paganel 7y ago
    > after the crash the recovery is inevitable It hasn't been inevitable in Japan after the early 1990s crash.
- ac29 7y ago
  If you're so sure there will be a crash within 12-24 months, are you short in the market? Short with leverage?

jowday 7y ago

I think I remember seeing similar comments in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018... Snark aside, if your timeline is more than 10-15 years, why should you worry at all about recessions next year? On a long enough timeline, a recession is just a great buying opportunity.

0x8BADF00D 7y ago
Did you miss 2001-2008? Or are you being purposefully deceptive.
- joelx 7y ago
  Bezos appears to believe the market has peaked and has sold $3b in Amazon over the last week.
  - dredds 7y ago
    Are you certain it's nothing to do with the divorce or Blue Origin, etc?
  - melling 7y ago
    He sells stock every year. He still has over $100 billion in stock.
- thaumasiotes 7y ago
  >> if your timeline is more than 10-15 years, why should you worry at all about recessions next year? On a long enough timeline, a recession is just a great buying opportunity. > Did you miss 2001-2008? Or are you being purposefully deceptive. This looks more like you being intentionally dishonest. I took DJIA figures from http://www.fedprimerate.com/dow-jones-industrial-average-history-djia.htm http://www.fedprimerate.com/dow-jones-industrial-average-his...: January 2000: 11,722.98 December 2001: 10,021.57 March 2003: 7,673.99 October 2006: 11,850.21 (beating the high of 1/2000) October 2007: 14,164.53 March 2009: 6,507.04 December 2010: 11,577.51 January 2015: 17,164.95 Here we have a 15-year period which starts at the high price before the period you "called out". What are we supposed to view the low points as, if not great buying opportunities? (Also, it's pretty apparent that 2001-2008 doesn't make sense conceptually as a single period.)

arwhatever 7y ago

What time and day?