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> No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution,

> No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. I'm afraid the data doesn't back you up at all. The Chinese cultural revolution is considered the years 1966-1976. Here is the data for those years in real per capita GDP growth[0]: 7.7, -8.1, -6.6, 13.7, 16.1, 4.2, 1.3, 5.4, 0.2, 6.8, -3.1 Average: 3.4% Here are the numbers for the 1980s (1980-1990): 6.5, 3.8, 7.4, 9.2, 13.7, 11.9, 7.3, 9.9, 9.4, 2.6, 2.4 Average: 7.6% 7.6% is more than double 3.4%. So, as you can see, all of your assertions are wrong. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China

lkrubner 7y ago
The Wikipedia article that you link to says it includes PPP estimates and also says this: “The GDP also has been converted to U.S. dollar-based data by utilizing the moving average exchange rate.” I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Back when I studied Chinese history it was well known that the Chinese economy had done well during the Cultural Revolution. Now that reality is being re-written to fit a political narrative that simply asserts that the economy did not do well during the Cultural Revolution.
- WoodenChair 7y ago
  > I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Please link to alternative data that supports your argument. > Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? In most economic studies values are converted to US dollars because it is a stable point of reference. Again, if you have data to backup your wild assertions in this thread that go completely against conventional wisdom then I would be very interested in seeing it. Great claims require great evidence. > The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Of course it's not a perfect measure. But you said in an earlier message that "During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%." However, the data we do have shows the opposite: the worst year had negative (-8.1%) growth. I don't think any adjustments to currency would account for such a large swing. Sometimes it's best to just admit you're wrong. It certainly would lead to less down votes.
- dpark 7y ago
  > Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? So provide some data from that viewpoint. It seems that you’re just making data up. e.g. What is your “During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%.” claim based on?
dpark 7y ago
It’s actually worse than 3.4. You can’t average growth numbers like that because that under-represents down years. e.g. A decline of 50% followed by an increase of 100% does not equal growth of 50% per year.
- WoodenChair 7y ago
  True, you are absolutely correct, my bad. But it tells the story I guess.
MagnumOpus 7y ago
GDP per capita figures actually flatter the disaster that was the cultural revolution. If you starve 5% of the population and have zero births due to starvation, -12% growth becomes -7% growth per capita...
bazooka_penguin 7y ago
You want to look at the total growth at the end of the period and then calculate the annual average growth as the base of the exponent.

lkrubner 7y ago

The Wikipedia article that you link to says it includes PPP estimates and also says this: “The GDP also has been converted to U.S. dollar-based data by utilizing the moving average exchange rate.” I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Back when I studied Chinese history it was well known that the Chinese economy had done well during the Cultural Revolution. Now that reality is being re-written to fit a political narrative that simply asserts that the economy did not do well during the Cultural Revolution.

WoodenChair 7y ago
> I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Please link to alternative data that supports your argument. > Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? In most economic studies values are converted to US dollars because it is a stable point of reference. Again, if you have data to backup your wild assertions in this thread that go completely against conventional wisdom then I would be very interested in seeing it. Great claims require great evidence. > The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Of course it's not a perfect measure. But you said in an earlier message that "During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%." However, the data we do have shows the opposite: the worst year had negative (-8.1%) growth. I don't think any adjustments to currency would account for such a large swing. Sometimes it's best to just admit you're wrong. It certainly would lead to less down votes.
dpark 7y ago
> Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? So provide some data from that viewpoint. It seems that you’re just making data up. e.g. What is your “During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%.” claim based on?

dpark 7y ago

It’s actually worse than 3.4. You can’t average growth numbers like that because that under-represents down years. e.g. A decline of 50% followed by an increase of 100% does not equal growth of 50% per year.

WoodenChair 7y ago
True, you are absolutely correct, my bad. But it tells the story I guess.

MagnumOpus 7y ago

GDP per capita figures actually flatter the disaster that was the cultural revolution. If you starve 5% of the population and have zero births due to starvation, -12% growth becomes -7% growth per capita...

bazooka_penguin 7y ago

You want to look at the total growth at the end of the period and then calculate the annual average growth as the base of the exponent.